dan88 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 000 URNT12 KWBC 211655 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015 A. 21/16:20:00Z B. 14 deg 08 min N 048 deg 19 min W H. EXTRAP 965 mb I. 6 C / 3690 m J. 21 C / 3321 m K. 2 C / NA L. OPEN S M. C12 N. 12345 / NA O. 1 / 4 nm P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06 SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 FWIW, admittedly not much, the GGEM track is North of the Islands and gets Danny fairly close to the Florida coast before tracking OTS. It shows a weak, but organized system near the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Very impressive looking cane despite small stature. Will see how much he atrophies hitting the dry air / shear coming up. Bigger issue imho is whether he can steer clear to north of the PR and DR. Could be interesting to see what he can become if he can hold on for that bath water approaching the Turks and Caicos. Some of the intensity guidence (for what it's worth, which is always not much) now trends back up after 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Pretty remarkable uptick in intensity estimates today, although the numbers did nudge downward some on the last pass. While Danny still looks impressive on IR loop, the CDO does have a more raged appearance on the latest frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Some of the intensity guidence (for what it's worth, which is always not much) now trends back up after 84 hours. Thanks, yeah had just noticed the same over on spaghettimodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Gonna be intersting to see what the plane gets on the S and SE side of Danny looks to be strongest side ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 1 minute imagery of Danny http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 North South pass, 101kt SFMR unflagged, 108kt flight level, 969.2mb extrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Convection building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Convection building Looks like the eye might be shrinking, I wonder if we are about to witness some rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 000 URNT12 KWBC 211719 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015 A. 21/17:05:46Z B. 14 deg 12 min N 048 deg 28 min W C. NA D. 104 kt E. 019 deg 3 nm F. 107 deg 107 kt G. 016 deg 5 nm H. 974 mb I. 7 C / 3655 m J. 25 C / 3010 m K. 5 C / NA L. OPEN S M. C18 N. 12345 / NA O. 1 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 07 MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 075 / 04 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Shear is not as strong as it was 24-48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looks like the eye might be shrinking, I wonder if we are about to witness some rapid intensification. It seems as if Danny is pushing the dry air away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It seems as if Danny is pushing the dry air away. 11AM discussion It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the intensification and the increase in outer banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Pinhole eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 11AM discussion It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the intensification and the increase in outer banding. Impressive. You can also see Danny moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 danny seems like he picked the ideal time to strengthen. he has really expanded since yesterday and hopefully it is enough to protect the coc over the next 36hrs or so. if it can hold on the waters north of the islands are ideal for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny is a major, congrats! Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE 000WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Cat 3 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/211747.shtml There goes our one for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Pinhole eye? Cold be some kind of ERC as well, he had a pretty stable eye for a while but I am not really that familiar with how ERC work or if they even occur in a system like Danny, versus a bigger stronger storm......it could also be clouds overtopping it hard to say. Gonzo is up now too and hopefully the data they get can give us a better idea with regards to the dry air and shear Danny will be dealing with, it should be in the 18Z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny could be one of the shortest lived major hurricanes in recent memory in the Atlantic. The last one I recall was Sandy which was upgraded to a major right before it hit Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Pinhole eye? Radar does not support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The 12z ECMWF barely has a current surface reflection for Danny. I wonder if that's playing any sort of a role. It develops the system behind it into a TC by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny likely peaked at ~105-110 kt at about 15Z, since the recon data came as Danny's satellite presentation deteriorated. Convection has warmed, the southern eyewall has opened up, the eye has become clouded, and the western side of the CDO has become eroded, while flight-level winds suggest that Danny is tilted from SW to NE. These trends are clear indications that strong westerly shear is finally affecting Danny, causing the system to become elongated. For once, I agree with the (12Z) HWRF, which quickly brings Danny down almost as rapidly as it spun up, showing a strong tropical storm in 36 hours and a depression reaching the Leewards later. Small systems like Danny often deepen and then peter out more rapidly than the NHC anticipates. I expect that there won't be much left of Danny in two days. Even though Danny intensified more than I, the NHC, or any of the dynamical models expected, it won't make much difference, given the very hostile conditions and drier air ahead of such a tiny cyclone. The GFDL's re-strengthening of a weak system near Puerto Rico makes no sense, given the collapse of Danny's inner core and the very dry air surrounding the cyclone, even assuming, as the Devil's advocate, that shear eventually relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 GFDL and HWRF both show an extremely favorable environment in the Bahamas. Whether or not Danny can stay a coherent system until then remains to be seen. Highly doubt it makes the journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The GFDL and HWRF both are poor at best when forecasting upper-level conditions, even in the short to medium range. Anyway, even if Danny were an organized storm in the Bahamas, the persistent westerly mid-level flow around 30°N east of Florida would ensure that it would curve away from the East Coast. I'm quite convinced that Danny will open up into a wave or weaken to a depression before reaching the islands and moving west with the low-level flow into Hispaniola, consistent with the ECMWF and its ensembles' forecasts over the past several days. Still, Danny has put on quite a show and shown the limitations of satellite estimates when dealing with compact but intense, deepening systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 The globals show slightly better conditions around the Turks & Caicos area in around 5 days or so. If Danny can stay a coherent entity and avoid major land interaction, there's the chance it can restrengthen some. But that's way out there, and full of a lot of 'IF' scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny looks less impressive since 15 UTC. Here's a live, updating satellite loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looks like the eye has closed and there is a new flareup on the NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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