isohume Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I had wondered the same thing some months ago when he did not start the Atlantic Tropical thread... Man, the memories. I remember 'ol Josh taking great pride in being the one to start Atlantic Tropical threads. RIP Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 If Danny were a more typical-sized cyclone and had another two days or so, it would potentially have enough time to become a substantial hurricane and form a large anticyclone overhead, potentially counteracting the moderate to strong TUTT-generated westerlies lurking to its northwest. However, Danny has less than 24 hours to go before it encounters those westerlies (strong vertical shear), thereby halting significant intensification in its tracks. You can already see signs of shear impinging on outflow in the western semicircle. Given the small size of the storm, I think that Danny will likely peak sometime later today or overnight before weakening rapidly starting tomorrow. The NHC shows a peak around 12Z tomorrow, based on a blend of the dynamic and statistical guidance, which I think is too late, given that the ECMWF already shows less favorable conditions and signs of weakening overnight. Agreed. Difficult to see such a small storm thriving through what's ahead. There is a lot of shear and dry air in Danny's not-so-distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 The 12z GFS opens Danny up into a remnant wave by 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Josh is fairly active on Twitter @iCyclone as well, these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Remember the days when a strengthening hurricane east of the islands used to survive past 60w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Remember the days when a strengthening hurricane east of the islands used to survive past 60w? I consider intensity forecasts post 72-hours with a grain of salt. Haven't look at the features closely but I imagine a slight alteration of the TUTT would allow for a different outcome. Of course the future of Danny may be more dependent on interaction with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Highly unlikely with the now weaker storm. Bill was a beast cat 3 with a huge area of hurricane fource winds in our swell window. It also had almost perfect wave setup as the track of the storm kept swell moving with the strongest winds leading to enhanced wave heights. That swell was the biggest i have surfed on Long Island in 20 years of surfing. Easily 15 foot on the face. The craziest thing is the swell peaked over night so we never even saw the biggest. The swell peaked at the Long Island bouy at around 20 feet at 20 seconds. Just not something you see on the east coast. And would easily have the Eddie running in Hawaii. (Better bottom an no continental shelf makes a swell that size break 40' plus) Surfed that swell in OCMD. Easily one of the best swells I have ever surfed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is definitely moving NW currently and appears to be showing some effects of Southerly shear at the moment. You can see how the outflow is slightly restricted in the SE quadrant. Hopefully the cyclone can escape far enough North to avoid the cyclone graveyard in the E Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny's likely the cutest little 'cane I've ever seen on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny's likely the cutest little 'cane I've ever seen on satellite. He's the Rhode Island of Hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny is definitely moving NW currently and appears to be showing some effects of Southerly shear at the moment. You can see how the outflow is slightly restricted in the SE quadrant. Hopefully the cyclone can escape far enough North to avoid the cyclone graveyard in the E Caribbean. On the last couple frames outflow on nw and sw quadrants seems to be slighlty improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny up to 80 MPH at 5PM AST advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny's likely the cutest little 'cane I've ever seen on satellite. Too bad once the shear increases to 20kt in a few days Danny's going to be shredded worse than anything Hispaniola can even imagine achieving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It's smaller then some thunderstorm complexes over South America!!! This little baby has no shot against shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Not to mention the convection. It is looking pretty good right now. Wonder where they will put the winds at 11 pm, sucks there cant be a plane out there over the next 12 hrs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 NHC stands pat at 11pm. 80mph, 990mb, WNW at 10mph HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420151100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015Danny continues to produce a compact central dense overcast, andcloud tops are a little colder than earlier due to a recent burst ofconvection in the eyewall. Coincidentally, the convective canopyhas intermittently been obscuring the tiny eye that was observedearlier today. The initial intensity remains 70 kt based on a blendof subjective Dvorak satellite estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB andT4.5/77 kt from SAB.The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt,toward a break in the subtropical ridge located northeast of theLeeward Islands. The track guidance shows this motion continuingfor another 36 hours, with Danny then turning westward andaccelerating from 48 hours through day 5 while the ridge buildswestward north of the Greater Antilles. With the exception of theGFDL, GFDN, and NAVGEM--which insist that Danny will turnnorthwestward before reaching the Leeward Islands--the other trackmodels are in agreement on a future track near or just south of thenorthern Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles. This clustering ofthe guidance required no significant changes to the official NHCtrack forecast on this advisory cycle.As has been mentioned in earlier discussions, Danny is susceptibleto sudden and possibly unexpected changes in intensity due to itssmall size. Since vertical shear is expected to remain low foranother 24 hours or so, Danny could certainly strengthen some moreif it can avoid intrusions of dry air into the inner core. After36 hours, an increase in westerly to southwesterly shear and adecrease in mid-level relative humidities are expected to lead toweakening, and Danny is forecast to weaken to a tropical stormbefore it reaches the Leeward Islands. The updated NHC intensityforecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close tothe IVCN consensus. It should be noted that given Danny's smallsize, the weakening rate after 36 hours could be faster thanindicated in the official forecast.A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and aroundDanny Friday afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissanceaircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/0300Z 13.4N 46.6W 70 KT 80 MPH12H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH24H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH36H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH48H 23/0000Z 15.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 25/0000Z 17.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 26/0000Z 18.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH$$Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Size comparison between Danny and Super Typhoon Atsani Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I remember some small Mediterranian Sea tropical storm-like system at one time! Reminds me of what Danny looks like. So small. EDT: Oh, they have a name Medi-canes! One happened in November 2014. 69MPH sustained winds They are actually quite common! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 He's the Rhode Island of Hurricanes Or the Africa of Supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I thought we'd see a change at update but I guess not. Danny looks about as good as it ever has. We'll see what the morning brings. It'll be good to get recon and research flights out there. I have a feeling because he is so small and looking good winds in the eye wall are higher then what's stated. The change in pressure is huge over such a small area. Tracy hit Darwin Australia with a compact area of very intense winds. This is kind of the opposite of Sandy which had a huge area of similar strength winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I have a feeling because he is so small and looking good winds in the eye wall are higher then what's stated. The change in pressure is huge over such a small area. Tracy hit Darwin Australia with a compact area of very intense winds. This is kind of the opposite of Sandy which had a huge area of similar strength winds Yeah, I think it's stronger than a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 12z best track shows the intensity up to 85kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 What a beautiful looking cyclone! Best looking storm in years, even better than Gonzalo imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 11am Numbers are in11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 21Location: 14.0°N 48.2°WMoving: WNW at 10 mphMin pressure: 976 mbMax sustained: 105 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 https://youtu.be/bQBoXbtmh4Q First video update of the 2015 Season and Hurricane Danny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 968.6mb extrap (missed the center though, flight level winds of 45kt at the lowest extrap and from 650mb), 111kt winds at 650mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Nice, sounds like it's very close to being a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Very impressive looking cane despite small stature. Will see how much he atrophies hitting the dry air / shear coming up. Bigger issue imho is whether he can steer clear to north of the PR and DR. Could be interesting to see what he can become if he can hold on for that bath water approaching the Turks and Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.