downeastnc Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny looks pretty darn good, especially given the duration and strength of the shear he has dealt with for the last 36 hrs......, and you can easily see the shear in front of him isn't any better......so in order to survive he needs to bump NE some and go east of Hispaniola while surviving 15-20 knts of shear....this is a tall order at this point. His current flare up, along with the high level of organization he still has does give reason to not give up on Danny yet. If he does manage to miss Hispaniola and does get near the Bahamas as a TS then he will be in a area that would allow him to reorganize but at that point he would be a recurve according to the GFDL. 98L could be interesting I would like to see the center form further south than where it is now, most times storms that are already centered 15N or higher that far out are automatic fish storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 This caught my eye, FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/04L_intensity_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Thats a lot of models calling for him to get stronger down the road but track is key he has to miss Hispaniola to the east.....love how he is fighting off the shear this latest flare up is impressive but the SW side is :yikes:but at least it appears the center is under the storms. The 12Z runs will be don't in a bit and we will see what they show. The latest track is brutal from NHC and would kill him for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Thats a lot of models calling for him to get stronger down the road but track is key he has to miss Hispaniola to the east.....love how he is fighting off the shear this latest flare up is impressive but the SW side is :yikes:but at least it appears the center is under the storms. The 12Z runs will be don't in a bit and we will see what they show. The latest track is brutal from NHC and would kill him for sure.... Yep. Is gonna have to start on a more northerly trajectory relatively soon. That's the whole game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 He is almost naked again, I dont know how many more times he can bounce back...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Down to 40 MPh and a disorganized mess. Ugly track as well... The NHC nailed Danny days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 All gone... NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center NHC has issued its final advisory regarding Danny. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that Danny has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, located about 45 miles west-southwest of Guadeloupe. The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph. The trough is expected to dissipate during the next couple of days. The remnants of Danny are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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