downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Florida is still very much in the game and even the eastern GOM coast of Florida up to the panhandle maybe....the trend has been away from those areas but its still possible he ends up that way, a lot of early runs did take him across extreme southern Florida /Keys and then turned him north up the west coast of Florida. Given the trend though it seems a recurve wide right not hitting anything is more likely than into the GOM or extreme southern Florida. The last frame of the GFDL shows a trough over the east coast but its already almost north of the storm, this will most likely pull it north...now if Danny is hauling ass he would end up recurving, but if he isnt gong that fast then the trough will tug him north and then it just depends on how strong and big the ridging is behind the trough as to where he goes....also the GFDL is on the southern side of model guidance at this point with Danny but not by much so he may be further NE and that would also maybe mean a better chance at a recurve....this all is assuming Danny survives the next 24 hrs or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Banter post, but Go Gamecocks Danny will end up/stay a fish storm!Go Tarheels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 that cluster of storms coming off Africa does look interesting Was just thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 nhc finally follows the north trend. depression in the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 We will probably not know much until it reaches/misses the islands, Right now, its little more than a guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 nhc finally follows the north trend. depression in the bahamas. That looks like a similar position to the Labor Day storm of 1935. Also wouldn't be surprise if its stronger than a depression at the end of this forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 nhc finally follows the north trend. depression in the bahamas. They're playing it close to the vest. But worth asking if it's at least a middle of the road TS that veers north of the big islands and hits that bath water near Turks and Caicos why it would further weaken into a TD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 They're playing it close to the vest. But worth asking if it's at least a middle of the road TS that veers north of the big islands and hits that bath water near Turks and Caicos why it would further weaken into a TD? It is a good question as to why they keep the weakening going......mostly though if he where to follow that track as a weak TS with a lot of interaction with the Greater Antilles then he will have a lot of trouble getting reorganized. That track would have him close to the islands and the mountains will hurt him even with the center offshore.....he needs to go another 100 miles NE from there or be in much better shape when he gets there than currently forecasted by the NHC. Also the NHC states they have pretty low confidence on the intensity forecast days 4-5 and that's because there could be anything from no storm left to a strong TS or even hurricane and they really are not sure so the got to put something down for day 5 and right now that's the best educated guess they can make. He looks worse now, not sure if its DMIN combined with the shear that's slowing down his ability to refire storms, WV doesn't indicate he has a lot of dry air in his circulation but WV doesn't always see the lower level dry air very well. What happens with this current little flare up on the NW side might be able to shed some light on his inner structure. If he can wrap it around the center that will be a good sign...still some 30 knt shear out ahead, although its kinda drifting north some maybe keeping the worst of it away from the actual center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 It's such a small storm. Wind shear and dry air should have an amplified effect. But there is plenty of warm water out there. The forecast track doesn't really scream recurve to me. Looks like it gets precariously close to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Even if it passes the islands to the north it still looks like it will continue to weaken an go out with a wimper when it gets to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 It's such a small storm. Wind shear and dry air should have an amplified effect. But there is plenty of warm water out there. The forecast track doesn't really scream recurve to me. Looks like it gets precariously close to the US. He is doing better than I thought he would, the WV loop shows the shear on the N side pretty well, and the west and SW side have little to no outflow. That said he continues to fire good deep convection and as long as he can do that he will survive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Hurricane hunters out there now and his pressure looks to be around 990 maybe 988ish and he still is barely a cane most likely, one interesting thing though is the G4 flight is finding the shear less strong in front of him ( still 15-25 mph ) but the axis of shear does seem to be moving off to the north a bit faster than thought yesterday....its also running more west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 He is doing better than I thought he would, the WV loop shows the shear on the N side pretty well, and the west and SW side have little to no outflow. That said he continues to fire good deep convection and as long as he can do that he will survive... Yep that's a good point. As long as the convection continues to be robust, he'll keep on trucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 and then we have a couple more X's out there .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 From cat 3 to barely a hurricane in 24 hours. I guess we can call this RW (rapid weakening) over open water. The shear and dry air are really killing him now. Typically storms that encounter this kind of disruption are never the same again. If he ends up with some land interaction you can pretty much put to bed any ideas of a decent system after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Gonna need a good DMAX tonight, the next 12 hrs will tell the tale..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Gonna need a good DMAX tonight, the next 12 hrs will tell the tale..... He's looking really rough right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Cut........it..............out! Did Danny disappear ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Cut........it..............out! Did Danny disappear ? Nice full house reference. Danny looks awful, quickly turning into a really weak storm. At 8 he was only at 65 MPH. Just 24 hours ago he was 115MPH. Amazing considering he didn't have any land interaction and is over very warm water. The shear and dry air has really killed him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 image.jpg Wow, you can see how the shear ripped that thing apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Guys, this system hasn't even hit the worst of the shear yet and the shear is growing ahead of it. This is done for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Guys, this system hasn't even hit the worst of the shear yet and the shear is growing ahead of it. This is done for.... Naw man, he's got a chance to hit the NC coast. You guys in NC need to stay frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 People are too quick to write this storm off. Convection once again exploding over the center. It may or may not survive depending on the track but it certainly isn't dead yet or close to dead. Small storms strengthen and weaken quickly, no surprises there. LLC is no longer exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 He really has got a pretty good flare up going....that said I wouldn't be surprised to see him flare up and die off several times over the next day.....the spaghetti plots would indicate at least some kind of threat to the SE coast is possible down the road.....of course that is assuming he makes it to the Bahamas intact which is admittedly a tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Not looking good even with convection flare up. Danny will no longer go north of the mountains because it's too weak. Gonna destroy whats left of Danny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yea the southern shift this has done overnight is not going to do it any favors in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Remnant low status in the Bahamas, Danny is toast. Also I'm not sure who it was, may not have even been in this thread but some were giving the NHC a hard time for not model hugging and shifting their track to the north. That decision looks a lot better this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 IF Danny could skirt just N of Puerto Rico and other islands, it could be a totally different outcome. It's still fighting the good fight! But like many of our winter events, the storm behind Danny , looks to be our storm, possibly!? Some models really have it strengthening to a decent 'cane and nearing the SE coast in a week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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