Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 we want it just north of the islands, I think so it isn't too far north and little to no land interaction we don't want the navgem lmao, has it strong then pulls north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 brad p posted an awesome radar shot of danny from the hurricane hunters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Someone on Twitter posted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Thanks for all the updates guys, especially downeastnc. I'm learning a lot about maps that I don't usually reference. Danny is quite the beautiiful storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Quite a temperature spread inside/outside the eye. 7/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Quite a temperature spread inside/outside the eye. 7/25 yeah it is, the sun is setting and the towers around the eye are looking good, I wonder if it is going through some kind of ERC, a lot of times these smaller system have these peaks and then relax their wind fields which in turn broaden the wind field making the system larger......then they pop a new eye usually bigger than before and spin back up....if that is what is happening he doesn't have much time left to get back to a stable eye....but the towers on the west side look as good as any I have seen in the center so far. Watching the hunters on goggle earth and Miss Piggy has been tasked with getting some data from the area out in front which isn't something you see her do too much, Gonzo flew through the shear area and did find plenty of 20-35mph shear so that's gonna hurt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Guess it can make it to major hurricane ! Cat 3 per 5pm advisory!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Guess it can make it to major hurricane ! Cat 3 per 5pm advisory!! Do you guys read these threads before posting in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Starting to see signs that the models are not finishing this thing off after the shear and we are seeing upticks in intensity after getting whack by the shear as the models start to let Danny survive it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 NHC disco talks like today's stock market... Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear inthe cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of thecyclone, and abundant nearby dry air. Although it starts from ahigher initial intensity than the previous forecast, the newintensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken below hurricanestrength at about 48 hours. After that, the system should continueto weaken as it moves near or over the Greater Antilles in closeproximity to an upper-level trough. The GFS/ECWMF/UKMET modelsall forecast Danny to degenerate to a tropical wave by 120 hours, sothe new intensity forecast compromises between this extreme and theSHIPS/LGEM models, which forecast a stronger cyclone at that time.NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft willinvestigate Danny again Saturday afternoon. These data will providea better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/2100Z 14.5N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 17.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 26/1800Z 19.5N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 NHC doesn't sound impressed. Has it weakening and going right over the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do you guys read these threads before posting in them?No. I have a job! And somebody said last night that it would not reach cat 3, so I was responding to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 No. I have a job! And somebody said last night that it would not reach cat 3, so I was responding to that. Oh well your right folks did say it wasn't likely but small canes can surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 NHC doesn't sound impressed. Has it weakening and going right over the islands. The NHC gives clues to their thinking in the disco they are south of center on the guidance for now but that is weighted on the GFS and Euro which is odd since they both are doing terrible with the storm both have it has a weak TS at best when they initialize.......the ens for them also are all north..... Spaghetti plots show this nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It's gonna take a double whammy coming up by the looks,by the shear and and SAL Seems as if it can survive the next couple days the SST's are warmer as you get past the Leeward Islands towards the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The dry air hasnt been as big a factor as was thought so far, mostly due to Danny having a well formed and effecient LLC, the key to his survival is maintaining that strong LLC. He is gonna have a rough night tonight and even worse day tomorrow, hopefully his strengthening today will be enough to offset total destruction. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get down to minimal TS but I also wouldn't be shocked if he does better than expected with the shear, with a strong efficient and small inner core he might be able to replace the storms around the center fast enough to keep the center intact and most of the dry air out.....that's the least likely outcome though 30 knts of shear is usually pretty brutal on TC The SW side flattening out due to the shear getting going but he is still firing good storms around the center http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rbtop-long.html . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 NHC said it should be a tropical wave in 120 hours. With the weakening and the projected path still going over the islands, I think we have seen the worst of this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Danny has to avoid Hispaniola to have a chance. Given that the NHC track is still south of the majority of guidance, I think there is a chance Danny comes out better than expected. We'll just have to see. This is what I love about tropical. Sometimes, no one knows what is going to happen.. Yeah that's why I love the people that are soooooo sure they know whats gonna happen, like folks saying it was impossible or extremely unlikely for Danny to make Cat 3. I try really hard to not to use terms definitive terms or tell others they are way off base unless it is based on solid evidence. Sometimes you just have to fall back on experience, seems as time goes on people rely on the models to much. Danny trying really hard to get a eye back lol, and he is gaining some latitude, might be that he is so small that he is pushed much further N than expected and that would translate to a much better chance of a recurve down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I'm shocked there's a major hurricane during a strong el nino. I heard a lot of people saying there probably wouldnt be a major hurricane this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Yeah that's why I love the people that are soooooo sure they know whats gonna happen, like folks saying it was impossible or extremely unlikely for Danny to make Cat 3. I try really hard to not to use terms definitive terms or tell others they are way off base unless it is based on solid evidence. Sometimes you just have to fall back on experience, seems as time goes on people rely on the models to much. Danny trying really hard to get a eye back lol, and he is gaining some latitude, might be that he is so small that he is pushed much further N than expected and that would translate to a much better chance of a recurve down the road. He's weakening now, it won't be cat 3 at 11 IMO. I didn't think he would make cat 3 overnight, I said there was a near zero chance he would (he didn't) I never said impossible, I don't think anyone said that actually. If you're going to call me out like that it's fine, (even though you're wrong) but don't pretend you were great in your predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 Yeah that's why I love the people that are soooooo sure they know whats gonna happen, like folks saying it was impossible or extremely unlikely for Danny to make Cat 3. I try really hard to not to use terms definitive terms or tell others they are way off base unless it is based on solid evidence. Sometimes you just have to fall back on experience, seems as time goes on people rely on the models to much. Danny trying really hard to get a eye back lol, and he is gaining some latitude, might be that he is so small that he is pushed much further N than expected and that would translate to a much better chance of a recurve down the road. He's weakening now, it won't be cat 3 at 11 IMO. I didn't think he would make cat 3 overnight, I said there was a near zero chance he would (he didn't) I never said impossible, I don't think anyone said that actually. If you're going to call me out like that it's fine, (even though you're wrong) but don't pretend you were great in your predictions. I thought I addressed this yesterday. Keep this up and I will ban both of you until Danny becomes a tropical wave. This is a statement, not an invitation for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 So, he's back down to a Cat 2 per the 11 PM update. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/220237.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Danny is doing ok with the shear for right now but of course its just getting stronger by the hour so I'm sure once he draws in the dry air its gonna be a big problem for him. He is continuing to have a nice look and convection around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 danny's moisture continues to keep most of the dry air at bay, and the big batch of it to his west seems to be retreating north a bit. if he can keep that convection firing around the coc he has a great chance of surviving this. and models continue to tick north of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The NHC seems to be hugging the southernmost guidance. While it appears most of the models keep pushing Danny to a track that would have it miss PR and DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I gotta say he looks a lot better this morning than I expect, he is able to keep good convection firing around the center and is now well into the area of shear, and if anything his outflow is improving. That said the worst of the shear is still to come. You can still see the western side flattening a bit from the shear but it gonna take more than this to stop Danny it appears. It will be tough for NHC to ignore the north trend much longer......the fact he is hanging tough and the models now almost all keep him as a t least a TS through the period mean more than likely Danny will be around for awhile. The 06Z spaghetti plots and intensity forecast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Danny isn't any bigger than the thunderstorm complex in Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Any chance that this ends up in south Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 that cluster of storms coming off Africa does look interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Any chance that this ends up in south Florida? Looks like a couple of models take it that way so sure there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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