Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 If it goes on this path over the islands it will get torn apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 If it goes on this path over the islands it will get torn apart. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Latest track guidences strongly suggest he misses the islands to the north, if he does and he doesnt get sheared to death then things get fun next weekend. The NHC track doesn't ever move a lot they walk it towards the trends at 5pm it will be on or just off the north coast of Dominican Republic if the guidance stays the same, this is at least to me a much more interesting future than the one painted previously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Seems to have 2 camps imo. One bends Danny back to a much more westerly path passed 48 hours.. The other continues more or less with the same general heading after 48 hours. How much it bends back to the west and how pronounced that bend is will determine how much effect the Islands will have on Danny. Of course the near term the biggest threat to Danny is the encounter with the shear its about to run across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Seems to have 2 camps imo. One bends Danny back to a much more westerly path passed 48 hours.. The other continues more or less with the same general heading after 48 hours. How much it bends back to the west and how pronounced that bend is will determine how much effect the Islands will have on Danny. Of course the near term the biggest threat to Danny is the encounter with the shear its about to run across. Yep I wonder how much of that has to do with what kind of system the models have left after the shear, one would think the models that correctly have him deeper and stronger will be more NE as the shear will be better able to push him where as the models that have him weaker and shallow will be less influenced by the SW shear and thus further west. IF you split the difference on the tracks it would put him right in the pipeline for a potential SE threat...... Cloud tops look to be cooling again I hope he holds on with his current organization till the plane can get in there this afternoon. That plus the data from the G4 flight will do a lot to give us a idea if Danny is a legit threat to the islands or the US down the road. He really has been pretty steady the last 12 hrs or so and its nice to finally have something to watch out there, hell the way its been going he might the only show this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 model guidance is likely too far south as they initialized danny as much weaker than it is. the current strengthening trend should cause danny to go north of the islands (if it survives). models seem to be having trouble getting a feel for danny, maybe because of its small size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Plane on the way already should be there in a hr or so http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Just have to wait and see. If it goes north of the islands then it's a whole new ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 model guidance is likely too far south as they initialized danny as much weaker than it is. the current strengthening trend should cause danny to go north of the islands (if it survives). models seem to be having trouble getting a feel for danny, maybe because of its small size? The 12Z GFS run just initialized and it appears to have it as a 1008 MB low so its gonna most likely kill it off again, its off by at least 40 MB in strength most likely since the storm is prolly really around 970-975. Edit to add the GFS run would appear to setup a pattern that would be favorable for Danny if it were to still exist after the shear to NOT recurve fast enough to not impact somewhere along the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Hurricane hunters are finding strong winds and lots of dry air to the west of the storm per TWC. How much danny survives the dry air and shear is important but more importantly is where whatever remains tracks afterwards. If it gets blasted by the shear and dry air then goes over the bigger islands I doubt it survives at all. If it can move north of the islands and remain over water and survive then it could regenerate and get more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Cat 3 per this info Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 16:55ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 06A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 16:20:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°08'N 48°19'W (14.1333N 48.3167W)H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 965mb (28.50 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,690m (12,106ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,321m (10,896ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the southM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mileO. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical milesRemarks Section:Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 12,000 feetMaximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center at 16:20:40Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny is now a category 2 storm. Here's the latest cone of uncertainty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looking at the satellite and overlay of forecast plots shows he took a nice move to the NW in the last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Unflagged 120 mph surface wind that last vortex drop and they missed the center which is why they got such a high surface wind speed and this was on the side that looks on sat to be the "weaker" side. Line D is the one showing the surface wind they got, its a solid Cat 3 right now. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:19ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 07A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 17:05:46ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°12'N 48°28'W (14.2N 48.4667W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 107kts (From the ESE at ~ 123.1mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNE (16°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,655m (11,991ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,010m (9,875ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the southM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mileO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 hes a major, 115mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Major!! WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Major!! WTNT64 KNHC 211747 TCUAT4 HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR HURRICANE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required. SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES that is what I am talking about! I think chances are increasing of a possible threat to somewhere around the southeast, can it thread the needle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 that is what I am talking about! I think chances are increasing of a possible threat to somewhere around the southeast, can it thread the needle? Well the 12Z GFDL and HWRF both continue the trend of him surviving the shear and starting to get his act together again NORTH of the islands...if this is indeed what happens then there would be a chance for him to make it the the SE coast.....there is a trough at 240 hrs that gets about as far south as NC depending on how that effects him ( assuming there is a him ) will have a lot to do with where he ends up. This is all wild ass speculation though since that would be 7-10 days away. Gonzo the G4 is up sampling the shear and dry air and that data will go a long way in letting us know how bad a hit Danny is about to take......it appears that both the dry air and shear are not as bad as they where modeled to be, add that to a storm much stronger than expected and maybe he does make it to the islands intact as a closed named storm.....if he does get north of the islands the water temps and shear forecast would lend themselves to strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Well the 12Z GFDL and HWRF both continue the trend of him surviving the shear and starting to get his act together again NORTH of the islands...if this is indeed what happens then there would be a chance for him to make it the the SE coast.....there is a trough at 240 hrs that gets about as far south as NC depending on how that effects him ( assuming there is a him ) will have a lot to do with where he ends up. This is all wild ass speculation though since that would be 7-10 days away. Gonzo the G4 is up sampling the shear and dry air and that data will go a long way in letting us know how bad a hit Danny is about to take......it appears that both the dry air and shear are not as bad as they where modeled to be, add that to a storm much stronger than expected and maybe he does make it to the islands intact as a closed named storm.....if he does get north of the islands the water temps and shear forecast would lend themselves to strengthening. completely agree, where can I get this analyzed data once it comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I agree these are interesting to watch, but why on Earth would you pull for a hurricane to actually hit our coast? I live in SC and saw the damage of Hugo and no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 If this doesn't weaken too much and goes north of the islands, it could really end up being a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I agree these are interesting to watch, but why on Earth would you pull for a hurricane to actually hit our coast? I live in SC and saw the damage of Hugo and no thanks. same, but if it does end up like it would happen you might as well embrace it cause there is nothing that can be done to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 completely agree, where can I get this analyzed data once it comes out? I use this site mostly http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I use this site mostly http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ yeah, where is the shear at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 yeah, where is the shear at? The green blob/string to the west of Danny (looks like a squall line).You can see it popping up on the satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 yeah, where is the shear at? Try here...its not looking as bad as it did a day or so ago for Danny still a lot of shear but 15-20 knts is not nearly as bad as 30-40 knts......he seems to be feeling the effects or is undergoing some kind of ERC but I suspect it more related to the shear, you can see it really well on the NW corner of the outflow. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=shr&zoom=&time= http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=sht&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Try here http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=shr&zoom=&time= http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=sht&zoom=&time= thank you very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Why is everyone getting so excited? We don't want the hurricane this strong this early. Beta effect is gonna zoom this thing North and away from the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Why is everyone getting so excited? We don't want the hurricane this strong this early. Beta effect is gonna zoom this thing North and away from the mainland. we want it just north of the islands, I think so it isn't too far north and little to no land interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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