shaggy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I think it's going to the Gulf. My guess is it dies a quick and sudden death in the Caribbean. Chantel is a good example of a storm that reaches the eastern C. sea and just died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Gonna be a cane no later than 5pm maybe even by 11 this morning, he is a small cane for sure. Intensity forecast for small systems are usually worthless......the thing has a tight solid core right now though and is most likely a hurricane right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Time to change the title. Upgraded to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Spaghetti models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Looks like it nearly recurved back out to sea near Puerto Rico, but something kicked it back towards the SC coast. I remember all the models had it going to Myrtle Beach and the only forecaster that got it right (That I remember) was Jim Gandy in Columbia. Of course that was before the models we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 If he keeps this current flare up going he will make a run at Cat 3 tonight, these small systems can ramp up and down quickly and he has 24 hrs or so till he reaches the shear that will start him on his downward spiral.....I suspect if he is to survive he will have to expand his windfield starting tomorrow when he encounters the shear and if he can do that he will be still around north of the islands. If he can get bigger he stands a better chance of maintaining his inner core once he gets into the shear. Looking better and the SW corner is really strengthening ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 IMO there is a near zero chance Danny gets to cat 3. He will have a hard enough time making it to a cat 2, although that wouldn't be shocking, still not likely. He's about to suck in some dry air and a buzz saw of shear is just to his west. He has a rough road ahead. We may have even seen the best of Danny he should be peaking over the next 12 hours or so IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 IMO there is a near zero chance Danny gets to cat 3. He will have a hard enough time making it to a cat 2, although that wouldn't be shocking, still not likely. He's about to suck in some dry air and a buzz saw of shear is just to his west. He has a rough road ahead. We may have even seen the best of Danny he should be peaking over the next 12 hours or so IMO. The core is pretty damn solid at this point and its to bad they cant get a plane in there right now I am sure they would have a 100-110 mph system on their hands at least......we probably will never know for sure how strong he gets since by the time the plane can reach him the shear should be taking its toll.....the next 12-18 hrs are his best window for the near future some of the latest MW imagery suggest a quickly deepening storm compared to just 6 hrs ago Danny now Danny 6 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The core is pretty damn solid at this point and its to bad they cant get a plane in there right now I am sure they would have a 100-110 mph system on their hands at least......we probably will never know for sure how strong he gets since by the time the plane can reach him the shear should be taking its toll.....the next 12-18 hrs are his best window for the near future some of the latest MW imagery suggest a quickly deepening storm compared to just 6 hrs ago Danny now Danny 3.jpg Danny 6 hrs ago danny 2.jpg Satellite can measure the intensity of storms pretty well. I think you're stretching things quite a bit saying the above. It was an 80mph storm at last update. Whatever the NHC puts out at 11 regarding intensity you can bet it's very close to reality. Dvorak is one technique using satellites and there are others as well. Part of the reason he looks so much better now is that other image was at DMIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Which part exactly am I stretching it with? I agree SATS can put you in the ballpark but without a plane its tough to say if its 100 or 115 even with Dvorak and the other methods....I guess for practical purposes given its location its no big deal....I am gonna guess they will put him somewhere between 95-110 mph at 11 pm. Structure is pretty good for a small system and he is getting really symmetrical now still can see a little southerly shear though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Which part exactly am I stretching it with? I agree SATS can put you in the ballpark but without a plane its tough to say if its 100 or 115 even with Dvorak and the other methods....I guess for practical purposes given its location its no big deal....I am gonna guess they will put him somewhere between 95-110 mph at 11 pm. Structure is pretty good for a small system and he is getting really symmetrical now still can see a little southerly shear though Danny 5 .gif Saying its a 100-110. Mph storm at least. IMO that's a stretch. We will see in about 30 minutes. I've looked at some other satellite imagery and I don't see a high end 2 low end 3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Don't make me sorry I started this thread so early. When you piss into the wind, it doesn't matter if it is 85 mph or 110. You still end up all wet. Lets discuss the storm more, and each other's opinions less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Don't make me sorry I started this thread so early. When you piss into the wind, it doesn't matter if it is 85 mph or 110. You still end up all wet. Lets discuss the storm more, and each other's opinions less. 11pm still 80mph. He really doesn't look that good on infrared sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Thats a pretty solid IR look for the storm given its size, the eye is much bigger the last couple of frames and maybe that means its stabilizing now which would help with the storm being able to deepen faster. I am surprised they kept him at 80 since the storm looks considerably better than it did at 5pm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It's been my experience that intensifying storms with a clearing eye are usually low end cat 2 in intensity and the eye typically fully clears above 110mph or so. I would say based on this satellite image and presentation we have a 95-100mph hurricane and NHC is playing it conservative with intensity for the time being. It will likely be bumped up at 5am of the current look maintains itself or further organizes. This is not an 80mph storm IMO and is close to or is a low end cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Cloud tops really cooling around the center, pretty large area of -70/80 cloud tops almost all the way around the eye now...really crazy how small this storm is its not even 120 miles across and the core is maybe 50-60 miles across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The latest forecast track for Danny, does not show a recurve! It looks to get shredded on this track, but something to keep an eye on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 From the NHC: A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looks like this one is going to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looks like this one is going to fall apart. Its hard to say right now cause none of the models have been initializing the storm very well, the last GFS run starts with a 1008 mb weak TS at best versus a well defined storm that is more likely 100-115 and somewhere in the 970's right now. The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF both now have him surviving and north of the big islands....not saying its gonna happen but the trend in the models is for a the system to make it further west and north every run...in fact the latest GFDL ( initialized Danny at 985 currently ) has it as a cane north of the islands on the 06Z run this morning BUT there is plenty of time for that to change again so we need to see if its a trend or just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Sure looks good on the visible at the moment... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Sure looks good on the visible at the moment... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Yeah doubt that is just a 85 mph hurricane, especially given its small size. Its also expanding in size just a little, and you can see the shear out there around 54W waiting on him and that's gonna beat the hell out of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The projected track doesn't seem to curve at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny is not going to survive that wind shear at 54 and the mountains unless it regroups in GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny is not going to survive that wind shear at 54 and the mountains unless it regroups in GOM. Danny is gonna get Ninod. it needs to strengthen NOW if it wants to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 First Danny isnt going to the GOM, models have and will contine to trend north. Thats good though because the Caribbean Sea equals death by shear and a track over the big islands is also fairly good for wrecking a storm....this thing has a better chance of being a fish storm than it does being something that goes into the GOM. The shear ahead is potent but not to "thick" if he can make it through it with his well organized circ intact he stands a decent chance of restrengthening north of the islands with really warm water an light shear forecasted for that time frame, so the next 24-36 hrs will be the worst conditions he has to deal within the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Up to 105 mph now, also the shear forecasted to "only" be 20 knts this is weaker than the earlier 30-40 knts that was out in front of him, 20 knts ought to be enough to really mess him up though. new track also ticked north a bit and I expect this will continue as the NHC track is on the southern end of guidence now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.