Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do you remember a lot of hype with Hannah '08? There was little fanfare about its landfall even with forecasts up to hurricane strength. A T.S. forecast isn't going to do much to generate hype, especially since we've already had two landfalling T.S.'s this season. Quite a bit different environment now than even then. Shoot a hurricane in the middle of the ocean that has yet to have any modeling threat toward the US gets huge headlines now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 We need to stay vigilant https://twitter.com/ERICSORENSEN/status/634647092594638848 What an idiot...then in the ensuing comments he says "well TWC shows this climo map, therefore I'm okay." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Quite a bit different environment now than even then. Shoot a hurricane in the middle of the ocean that has yet to have any modeling threat toward the US gets huge headlines now. I guess given the proliferation of social media platforms, that must be the case. I'm still stuck in the last decade, I guess, with no twitter account, instagram page, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Actually I remember quite a bit of hype with Hannah- Maryland declared a state of emergency and the storm was all over the news. Huge bust though. It matched the forecast strength, track, and conditions pretty much right on--- prepare for a tropical storm was the message, and that was what happened. For our market, WJLA was the only network to go with wall-to-wall coverage, which I agree was maybe excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I guess given the proliferation of social media platforms, that must be the case. I'm still stuck in the last decade, I guess, with no twitter account, instagram page, etc. Social is ridiculous with this stuff.. but there's also simply a ton more media covering weather now than there used to be. Even just in the last 2-3 years it has exploded as all the newer media orgs found out weather is good for hits. So much of the stuff covered widely now would have been back page news, if that, in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Social is ridiculous with this stuff.. but there's also simply a ton more media covering weather now than there used to be. Even just in the last 2-3 years it has exploded as all the newer media orgs found out weather is good for hits. So much of the stuff covered widely now would have been back page news, if that, in the past. Well the net positive for you guys is it gets a blog like CWG an NPR gig. Congrats, BTW. I didn't know about it until Marcus heard your forecast. Do you think it's overall a negative or positive to have this much weather exposure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Well the net positive for you guys is it gets a blog like CWG an NPR gig. Congrats, BTW. I didn't know about it until Marcus heard your forecast. Do you think it's overall a negative or positive to have this much weather exposure? thx.. something new/different. I only do Friday mornings unless filling in as of now. Whoever edits the night prior does the next day and then Jason/Angela do afternoons as well. Not sure on exposure.. I don't think it's necessarily hurting anything but it's very crowded now and people definitely go a bit more to extremes to sell stuff than they should. It does seem we're about at peak coverage... any more might not be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Latest intensity models. All keep it as at least a tropical storm and many have Danny restrengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Next 72 hours are critical. Where will Danny go and will it survive? High drama I have a feeling the little hurricane that could, might just keep chugging along. It's going to be interesting to see what the little fella does. I'll be tuning in for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 NHC track adjusted north a tad. Has it weakening to a depression by Wednesday though. Still far from the final solution obviously as this storm had been very unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 They're slowly coming around to a northern track--it seems like the spaghetti models keep ticking north and they are still on the southern end of the guidance envelope because of the globals. Speaking of, clearly there is value to them, the NHC wouldn't be using them otherwise, but why aren't they tossed? Is it because they have a higher resolution and are better at looking at long term large scale features? They've been wrong on intensity, they're probably going to be wrong on track, I'm just not sure what kind of value they are adding. They only thing they have going for them is that they're consistent. The spaghetti models are still pretty volatile. My only guess as to why they don't toss the globals is because they have had their moments of accuracy in the past (Euro with sandy, GFS with Irene). I think the NHC put out a pretty good track this morning though, looks like they were heavily relying on the spaghetti models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 Latest intensity tracks don't look so bad this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 The saharan dust and dry air has kind of been more scattered it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 System behind Danny is probably a East Coast or GOM threat down the line if it forms. Days and days of tracking remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 22, 2015 Author Share Posted August 22, 2015 System behind Danny is probably a East Coast or GOM threat down the line if it forms. Days and days of tracking remain. It looks like it will be twice the size of Danny. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The Euro and GGEM are interesting for next week. Euro has a storm East of the Bahamas in 6 days with a ridge overhead and a homebrew storm further North that's recurving. GGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Sitting near 25N 75W with trough pulling out of the Northeast. Should allow for the ridge over the Midwest to slide East and build in overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The Euro and GGEM are interesting for next week. Euro has a storm East of the Bahamas in 6 days with a ridge overhead and a homebrew storm further North that's recurving. GGEM has it too. Most interesting setup since Hurricane Dean in 2007. Hurricane Irene a distant second. In addition, we have record or near-record warm SSTs across the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Big Cane well East of Florida next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The ridge is trying to slide in overhead but this will probably find the weakness leftover from the trough over SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Irene was such a disappointment (away from the coast) in SNE13" of rain here, massive flooding, extremely exciting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Bermuda bruiser, another cane on the chin this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 What an interesting run, stalled near Bernuda with ridge now overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Just need that trough to pull out faster and it's full steam to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Irene was such a disappointment (away from the coast) in SNE Irene was a good one for DC. I think it beat out Isabel in terms of wind @ DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 000 URNT12 KNHC 221850 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015 A. 22/18:18:00Z B. 15 deg 44 min N 052 deg 41 min W C. 700 mb 3080 m D. 67 kt E. 059 deg 2 nm F. 144 deg 49 kt G. 052 deg 3 nm H. 996 mb I. 12 C / 3051 m J. 20 C / 3032 m K. 3 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 0104A DANNY OB 05 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT 098 / 4 NM 18:20:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 060 / 60 KT ; That wouldn't qualify as a hurricane if it wasn't one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 For fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny is on the ropes Well, the NHC track is to the Bahamas now. Do you think the hype is going to get going with the remnant low forecast? Or does there actually need to be a named storm for that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 For fun... 1511321.jpg Haha looks like it Danny caught a bad case of El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 Most of the models have Danny as at least a tropical storm in 5 days. I don't know why NHC adjusted south with their track either after the models stayed pretty much the same with a few more northetn tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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