IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 One more decent shift North and it should miss the islands and all of the shear in the Caribbean. It will still have some shear to overcome in the near term but after that it would be in a much more conducive environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I was looking at the satellite images this morning - first time doing that for this storm - and while I'd heard it was a small storm, I didn't realize just how small. That thing is tiny! It could probably take a path right up the Chesapeake without getting beat up from interaction with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 One more decent shift North and it should miss the islands and all of the shear in the Caribbean. It will still have some shear to overcome in the near term but after that it would be in a much more conducive environment. I kind of like the current spaghetti tracks that take Danny barely north of Hispaniola where the shear is very low, about 10kts. I'm afraid if Danny goes too much farther north then he will get swept away to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I was looking at the satellite images this morning - first time doing that for this storm - and while I'd heard it was a small storm, I didn't realize just how small. That thing is tiny! It could probably take a path right up the Chesapeake without getting beat up from interaction with land. This was posted in the main tropical thread -- Danny is tiny compared to Super Typhoon Atsanti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm glad NHC finally adjusted north. I'm hoping Danny doesn't go over Hispaniola like NHC is currently predicting though. And I just realized, I only need Danny's wind speed to increase 6 mph for my "possible major hurricane" to verify... even if it only lasts 6 hours.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I'm more interested in the environment and track late next week. Unless there are drastic changes, Danny is going to be a mess by the time it reaches Cuba's longitude. Hopefully a favorable window opens for restrengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 The trough in the western atlantic lifts to the north and east and the high builds back in to the west on the gfs 12z run, exactly what NHC said would happen in their discussion. The trough seems to have been the only feature that would cause a recurve. If Danny stays together through the shear and tracks just north of the islands I would bet on a US landfall anywhere from the Florida coast to the outer banks area as a Cat 1 or strong tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I just saw the 06z GFDL-P. That looks rather encouraging - a 986MB low (tightly wound) north of the DR at hr 126... Needless to say the other models, even those that do take it north of Hispaniola, are much less encouraging in terms of keeping it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 On phone and can't find it, but I've seen maps showing low shear just north of the islands in a few days and a buzz saw of shear remaining in the Caribbean. North of the islands is the way to go. Do you see any features that potentially would cause a quick recurve if it took that track? There's really no way to know. NHC has Danny right over the Dom Rep on Wed. Euro and GEFS very similar @ h5 and look like this: Trough flattens over the next 3-4 days and would hypothetically allow the storm (in whatever form it is by then) to continue on a general w-nw track with no obvious feature to turn it n-ne down the line. But were talking a long ways out. The only thing worthwhile to pay attention to is how the storm does as it enters a more hostile environment. If it all goes to pieces then nothing else really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Im a bit surprised Danny has turned into a major hurricane. 00WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$Forecaster Beven/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Im a bit surprised Danny has turned into a major hurricane. I think everyone is.. tho these little storms do weird things. Already hit NOAA forecast for majors this year so hopefully no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I think everyone is.. tho these little storms do weird things. Already hit NOAA forecast for majors this year so hopefully no more. Guess size doesn't matter. Encouraging for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Size actually helped in regards to intensification. Smaller canes strengthen (and weaken) faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The trough in the western atlantic lifts to the north and east and the high builds back in to the west on the gfs 12z run, exactly what NHC said would happen in their discussion. The trough seems to have been the only feature that would cause a recurve. If Danny stays together through the shear and tracks just north of the islands I would bet on a US landfall anywhere from the Florida coast to the outer banks area as a Cat 1 or strong tropical storm. It would have lots of shear to contend with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 With Danny now being a cat 3 with 115mph winds it seems like it should have a bit of an easier time making it through the shear without being ripped apart. Just yesterday NHC was predicting 85mph max winds so we have a 30mph head start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yeah. NHC has been hammering the unpredictability of a small storm like this for a few days. It has really gone to town the last 24 hours. I wonder if it can tack on some additional strength before it runs into that wall of shear and dry air. Looks like it's probably about peak.. hunters might have gotten it at just the right moment. It's gonna get shredded by shear I bet. Interesting to see if it survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Size actually helped in regards to intensification. Smaller canes strengthen (and weaken) faster. I don't think that's what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Does anyone remember how fast Charlie in 2004 strengthened right before landfall, and how small of a storm that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I don't think that's what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 With Danny now being a cat 3 with 115mph winds it seems like it should have a bit of an easier time making it through the shear without being ripped apart. Just yesterday NHC was predicting 85mph max winds so we have a 30mph head start. We need to stay vigilant https://twitter.com/ERICSORENSEN/status/634647092594638848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Does anyone remember how fast Charlie in 2004 strengthened right before landfall, and how small of a storm that was? yeah it dropped like 25 mb in the last 6 hr or so before landfall. maintained a decent core crossing Cuba tho even though it weakened for a while. the little storms are cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 We need to stay vigilant https://twitter.com/ERICSORENSEN/status/634647092594638848 Good god that dude's a weenie. Lol at the fact that he starts busting out the Farmer's Almanac to make his graphic less ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 The small size might be good for intensification, but it can be tough as well if the circulation is disrupted by things like shear, land interaction, etc. If it doesn't hit Hispaniola I think it survives as a minimal storm. If it has to bring its center over that terrain--it's in deep trouble. Agreed, though I'm still leaning towards Danny passing north of Hispaniola based off of the spaghetti models. Haven't really payed any attention to the gfs and euro, but they should start becoming more accurate with the new data in from recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 We need to stay vigilant https://twitter.com/ERICSORENSEN/status/634647092594638848 Damn! That is one gigantic cone of ambiguity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I remember being absolutely glued to the TV as it rapidly intensified. Me too, I was watching all day on the weather channel at the time and it seemed to go up a category every few hours. I think Andrew was the same way too (small storm, rapid intensifying) but I don't remember it well. Like famartin said I think the small ones can rapidly intensify whereas the big ones struggle (I remember they kept saying Ike was going to reintensify but it just kept getting bigger rather than intensifying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 We need to stay vigilant https://twitter.com/ERICSORENSEN/status/634647092594638848 oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Based on that tweet, if you have travel plans anywhere in the Northern Hemi you are screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Iris '01 is another great example of a rapid ramping-up of a small hurricane: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112001_Iris.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The hype will really get going if the NHC shifts that track north and puts Danny in the Bahamas in about a week. Do you remember a lot of hype with Hannah '08? There was little fanfare about its landfall even with forecasts up to hurricane strength. A T.S. forecast isn't going to do much to generate hype, especially since we've already had two landfalling T.S.'s this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Do you remember a lot of hype with Hannah '08? There was little fanfare about its landfall even with forecasts up to hurricane strength. A T.S. forecast isn't going to do much to generate hype, especially since we've already had two landfalling T.S.'s this season. Actually I remember quite a bit of hype with Hannah- Maryland declared a state of emergency and the storm was all over the news. Huge bust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.