mappy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 ^^ it doesn't look like it may fish, right now, but who knows what could happen. calling people out for their "fish" calls from page one, this early in Danny's tropical life, is pretty silly IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 ^^ it doesn't look like it may fish, right now, but who knows what could happen. calling people out for their "fish" calls from page one, this early in Danny's tropical life, is pretty silly IMO. No sillier than you and some others mocking the person who started this thread when there was plenty of guidance saying it would not, in fact, be a fish storm. BTW having the storm shear apart as it goes over the Greater Antilles doesn't count as a fish either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 No sillier than you and some others mocking the person who started this thread when there was plenty of guidance saying it would not, in fact, be a fish storm. BTW having the storm shear apart as it goes over the Greater Antilles doesn't count as a fish either. I didn't mock the person who started it. Show me where I mocked HIM specifically. I said it smelled fishy. And you are right -- shearing =/= fish. Thanks for pointing out the obvious, sir. Now should Danny hit the US, or something, then you come back and run your mouth. And, if it does fish, expect some hardcore trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 No sillier than you and some others mocking the person who started this thread when there was plenty of guidance saying it would not, in fact, be a fish storm. BTW having the storm shear apart as it goes over the Greater Antilles doesn't count as a fish either. Most of the super meaningful track guidance doesn't even go out far enough for you to make this kind of a claim. For the purposes of this debate I don't consider the GFS to be reliable track guidance. You can't exactly say that guidance said fish vs no fish based on tracks going out to 5 days. I agree it doesn't look like a fish right now - but like mapgirl said - you calling out folks who called fish on the first page is uncalled for. These track models can swing wildly and you know that as well as any of us. I don't really think this storm is ultimately going to mean a ton for mainland USA but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I'm calling fish right now with fish meaning the eye goes right up the Chesapeake and a left turn at the mouth of the Potomac to the 14th St bridge before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I'm calling fish right now with fish meaning the eye goes right up the Chesapeake and a left turn at the mouth of the Potomac to the 14th St bridge before landfall. I'm on board with that outcome. To be honest...seeing that kind of a track or even something remotely similar would be such a sight that I might not mind seeing it once in my lifetime despite some costly damage probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 I'm calling fish right now with fish meaning the eye goes right up the Chesapeake and a left turn at the mouth of the Potomac to the 14th St bridge before landfall. Hahaha thanks for the comic relief, things were getting pretty tense in here for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Ok...to get back on track, any bets on intensity (wind/pressure) at 11? 988mb 75mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Intensity models don't seem to completely kill Danny this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Stab in the dark but 65mph/995mb at 11? Wasn't it 70 mph at 992mb this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 It's official! We have Hurricane Danny! 75mph 992mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 It's official! We have Hurricane Danny! 75mph 992mb People smile and tell me I'm the lucky one, and we've only just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 50mph/1000mb at 5am Oh my bad,Mike on hurricane spaghetti models said it was 70mph at 992mb. I think he was talking about 8 am though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 GFS kills Danny again in a few days, but it seems it initialized with a 16mb pressure difference. Not sure how that impacts things. I have a feeling(no sound met logic at all) that this will be what happens for the next couple days. Up and down with model intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 GFS kills Danny again in a few days, but it seems it initialized with a 16mb pressure difference. Not sure how that impacts things. I would imagine that 16mb pressure difference would impact things quite a lot. The gfs thinks Danny is a weak disorganized mess heading into the Caribbean so of course it is going to kill it, when in reality Danny is quickly becoming a tightly wound hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 The globals are often too high on pressure. Danny is tiny it won't take a lot to disrupt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 The globals are often too high on pressure. Danny is tiny it won't take a lot to disrupt it. I think we're getting multiple F0s and F1s in the DC area after this thing makes landfall and heads for us. Just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Latest spaghetti models take Danny just north of Hispaniola. If it does take that track, once it gets to the islands it looks to be in the clear with warm waters, low shear, and no more saharan dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I have friends going to the Bahamas Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Looks decent from the space station: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 That's a nice looking supercell for the middle of the ocean, anyone got a GTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 I don't know why NHC is going with a southern track. Almost no models have it going that path. The guys at accuweather think it will go more north than most models. I don't think anybody really knows where Danny is going. If I had to guess, I would say somewhere either just north of Hispaniola or skimming the north edge of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny looks to be on track intensity wise. 80 mph and 990mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I don't know why NHC is going with a southern track. Almost no models have it going that path. The guys at accuweather think it will go more north than most models. I don't think anybody really knows where Danny is going. If I had to guess, I would say somewhere either just north of Hispaniola or skimming the north edge of Hispaniola. Nobody ever knows where a tropical system is going, to be frank. Tropical tracks are basically a crapshoot outside of 72 hours, and probably even less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Just saw a twitter post showing Euro locations of Katrina 120, 240 hours out from 2005. Those were fish positions. Let's just be patient and see what happens. Danny should do well today but will eventually get into some shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Just saw a twitter post showing Euro locations of Katrina 120, 240 hours out from 2005. Those were fish positions. Let's just be patient and see what happens. Danny should do well today but will eventually get into some shear. if it stays small, it won't last. south and its ripped to shreds, north and its out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 I don't know why NHC is going with a southern track. Almost no models have it going that path. The guys at accuweather think it will go more north than most models. I don't think anybody really knows where Danny is going. If I had to guess, I would say somewhere either just north of Hispaniola or skimming the north edge of Hispaniola. NHC can make mistakes, but I'd take NHC over Joel Myers any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Best looking cane in quite some time in the Atlantic deep tropics. I bet the actual core is a lot stronger than CAT 1 currently. You can see good outflow currently in all quadrants and an expanding CDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny is looking good this morning. NHC holding steady with their forecast. I bet they'll gradually adjust north the next day or 2. Quite a few of the models have the intensity increasing again after a couple days of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 Wow, the new data coming in shows Danny at 85 knots and 980 mb according to Mike on hurricane spaghetti models. Danny also looks to be increasing in size just by looking at radar. Looking forward to the 11am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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