Windman18 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 You have to edit the first post. Ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 DT on board saying that the overall pattern in the west atlantic/eastern US favors a US landfall as long as it survives the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY Danny is in da house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Forecast low end cat 2 by Sunday. No too shabby if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Can tell it's been a quiet run everyone all excited about a storm 5+ days from the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Forecast low end cat 2 by Sunday. No too shabby if it verifies.Finally something to watch. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Can tell it's been a quiet run everyone all excited about a storm 5+ days from the islands. It's going to save me from looking at the southern hemisphere Euro panels at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Lol. No big heat, no big cool downs, no real storms to track. We need this right now. Big dewpoints? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 TS Danny down to 1000mb. Pressure dropped more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 An 8mb drop is nothing to scoff at. Maybe up to 45kts at 11? Yeah it sure isn't. Wouldn't be surprised to see the winds up to 45kts. Looking forward to the 11pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 I could see this storm strengthen 12-15 kts the next 12 hours and then maybe trail off to a more gradual strengthening. I could see RI occurring if it stays on the southern edge of the Sahara dust layer but would not bet on it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Of course, the weenie LR is a swing and a miss now. Realistically - with CV systems fish is the way to bet. And if it had made it west into the Carib...it may have met a death via shear and/or terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 So it looks like if this storm stays relatively weaker over these next few days it has a greater chance of impacting the US but if it turns stronger then it will likely curve n and then nne out to sea once it passes the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 So it looks like if this storm stays relatively weaker over these next few days it has a greater chance of impacting the US but if it turns stronger then it will likely curve n and then nne out to sea once it passes the islands. IIRC, those are the two "classic" CV storm options. Strong tropical cyclones with higher tops get caught in the westerlies and shunted out to sea. The smaller cyclones, on the other hand, can avoid gaining latitude quicker and getting brushed into the open Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 The last few frames of the visible satellite loop show convection firing up over the center of circulation. Looks like Danny is trying to push out the dry air from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 Lots of moisture behind Danny may help cancel out some of the dry air. The disturbance up by Bermuda is now given a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. Will be interesting to see if it ends up having any impact on Danny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 The NHC did cite internal organization as a factor in allowing Danny to effectively cycle out dry air, I'm just not sure how well it can do with more dry air expected the next few days. Agreed, this thing is facing some noteworthy adversity (dry air and shear) in the coming days. Hard to get excited over anything with this, and I just saw the NHC has reduced the intensity forecast for Danny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 In the super long term fantasy land of the GFS I see Danny passing between outer banks and Bermuda as a TS or Hurricane during the week of September 1st. That track is the holy grail for swell chasers/ surfers like myself. Thats like Hurricane Bill 2009 material.... I need to schedule time off. I know it is fantasy land.. but if it does happen.. do you guys think thats a realistic time frame? I have a hunch it would be a little earlier than that... but I dont really know anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 In the super long term fantasy land of the GFS I see Danny passing between outer banks and Bermuda as a TS or Hurricane during the week of September 1st. That track is the holy grail for swell chasers/ surfers like myself. Thats like Hurricane Bill 2009 material.... I need to schedule time off. I know it is fantasy land.. but if it does happen.. do you guys think thats a realistic time frame? I have a hunch it would be a little earlier than that... but I dont really know anything. Great video. I've been chasing swells for 20 years (not so much lately). I even lived at the beach (Fenwick island) for 5 years. It was great. Did lots of surfing. Nothing better then a south ground swell from a hurricane. This storm doesn't look promising as far as swell goes. Way to hostile out there. It's been years since anything in the Atlantic looked decent. 1995 was epic. Consistent big swell and lots of great local conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Doesn't look much more impressive than Danny 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 Bernie Rayno has a good video up on accuweather. It's a decent watch, not too much new information though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I never followed wave action with tropical. What do you need for ideal conditions?I ideal set up would be a cat4 steaming up from the south. I like when the strong storms pass near Bermuda as they head north. Locally, I like to see a typical summer forecast. Calm, hazy, warm mornings with a light west wind. The west wind grooms the surf and causes the wave to barrel. Surfing is like playing with weather. You can actually feel the power of natural. It's a really amazing experience, especially for someone that's in touch with nature (like the people in this forum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 From To Yeah, you just never know what the gfs is gonna spit out at this range. I'm just glad it still has the storm so we'll have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 This storm might have replaced El Nino tweets as for what I see more of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 So much for a fish storm- a lot of people on page 1 of this thread look kind of dumb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 So much for a fish storm- a lot of people on page 1 of this thread look kind of dumb now. you can see the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 So much for a fish storm- a lot of people on page 1 of this thread look kind of dumb now. It could still easily fish...or be nothing in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 It could still easily fish...or be nothing in a few days. That's my call right now. Danny will become a Cat5 nothing fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Looks like a legitimate eye has formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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