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August 17th-21st Severe Weather Event


HillsdaleMIWeather

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Yeah the irony of that meetup makes it great! Good stuff.

That's awesome. Sounds kind of dumb, but on message boards like this, I just think of everyone as user names. Never would expect to run into or meet anyone from the board, especially as I don't personally know anyone on here.

Hell for all I know, some of us have met; but without your username and avatar on your shirt, I would have no idea.

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And here I was thinking I was the first to see it! lol

Really tight circulation feature on radar.

MKX.N0Q.20150819.0258.gif

Good to see Snow Freak and Alek met up!

Weather is pretty quiet here now.

Josh and Alek wouldn't have topped my list as the two most likely to meet up. So Josh, be honest, what is he like? :whistle:

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That's awesome. Sounds kind of dumb, but on message boards like this, I just think of everyone as user names. Never would expect to run into or meet anyone from the board, especially as I don't personally know anyone on here.

Hell for all I know, some of us have met; but without your username and avatar on your shirt, I would have no idea.

 

Haha yep.  I think a long time ago we had a thread where everyone posted a pic of themselves.  Maybe that was on eastern, or some other board I can't remember anymore lol.

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Haha yep. I think a long time ago we had a thread where everyone posted a pic of themselves. Maybe that was on eastern, or some other board I can't remember anymore lol.

Lets do it! Haha that would be interesting. Its so weird to think how much time we spend talking to eachother but we dont know who any of the others are. The only awkward thing is that since some of us live close to eachother, I'm not sure if the people on here who are annoyed by me/hate me will hate me in real life. Its just a weird little thought honestly. Sorry for my rant.
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They trimmed it... Literally stupid.

Lol

 

 

 

...SYNOPSIS...

THE VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE OVER SRN MN APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED

PEAK INTENSITY...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/NEWD TO THE

UPPER GREAT LAKES. S OF THE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS

EWD FROM WI/IL TO INDIANA/MI BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...THE

SURFACE COLD FRONT...REINFORCED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM NW TX

TO THE OZARKS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS TX AND THE MID

SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY.

...LOWER AND UPPER MI TODAY...

PRIOR CONVECTION AND UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES HAVE REDUCED MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES TO THE NE OF THE SRN PLAINS. STILL...SOME CLOUD BREAKS

ARE PROBABLE ACROSS LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS

WRN UPPER MI BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. RICHER MOISTURE

/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ AND AFTERNOON SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AOA 80F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE

1000-1500 J PER KG...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS LIKELY TOO UNSTABLE AS A

RESULT OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME/. WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE

PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI...BUT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE

SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING

GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER

OVER UPPER MI IN PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL JET...WHERE PROFILES WILL

BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. STILL...THE DEGREE OF

DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR NW AND THE WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY IS NARROW...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW DAMAGING WIND

PROBABILITIES.

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A subsidence bubble has developed behind the MCS across the lower OH valley and Mississippi Valley and is advecting NE.

While that should help things out with reducing cloud cover, hopefully it doesn't cause other issues as far as capping and moisture transport.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1110 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

.UPDATE...

THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEAR TO BE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS HELPED WARM THE MID LEVELS...AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (700-500 MB) WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING PEAK
HEATING...AS 13Z RAP13 AND 12Z NAM INDICATING THE SHOWALTER INDEX
EVEN STRUGGLING TO GO NEGATIVE...WITH 1000-850 MB CAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 250-750 J/KG...BASED ON MID 80S OVER 70 DEGREE DEW PTS.
ALSO...THE MID LEVEL JET IS DISPLACED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
THE 500 MB CIRCULATION NEAR MINNEAPOLIS IS ALSO MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH NOT PROVIDING BEST WIND VECTORS. THIS IS A MATURE
SYSTEM...AND HAS ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY OF BETTER MOISTURE POOLING/ENHANCED
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AS WHAT CAPE THERE IS LOCATED MOSTLY DOWN LOW
(5-15 KFT)...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD QUICKLY RAMP UP AT OR
JUST AFTER 00Z...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED LOW TOPPED CELLS.

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Yesterday's chase definitely got intense at the end. We targeted a storm with good structure near Abingdon in west central IL but never produced a tornado likely due to slightly lacking low level flow. Being that far west ended up putting us out of the game for the supercells that produced brief tornadoes in Livingston County, though we did try to catch up to the 2nd cell.

We followed the northern most cell that produced the tornado near Cornell and retained best structure through Morris to Channahon, with a visible wall cloud throughout. In Channahon, rotation improved and we had a view of a rotating wall cloud that I reported to my office. Things got real thereafter as we followed the storm into Joliet, with improving rotation and radar structure and called in another rotating wall cloud report to LOT. Finally, pulled over right near the office when the storm was almost literally overhead and that's when we observed a rapidly rotating wall cloud, a clearly visible RFD cut and were getting strong RFD winds. Called in another report to the office and found out they took shelter shortly after. It was a crazy experience being on the outside looking in and pretty scary how close it came to producing a tornado right in the metro. We followed the storm a little bit more to the northeast, but it gradually lost structure with time and we headed back.

This is the video from right near the office. (some brief NSFW language courtesy of yours truly lol):

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Yesterday's chase definitely got intense at the end. We targeted a storm with good structure near Abingdon in west central IL but never produced a tornado likely due to slightly lacking low level flow. Being that far west ended up putting us out of the game for the supercells that produced brief tornadoes in Livingston County, though we did try to catch up to the 2nd cell.

We followed the northern most cell that produced the tornado near Cornell and retained best structure through Morris to Channahon, with a visible wall cloud throughout. In Channahon, rotation improved and we had a view of a rotating wall cloud that I reported to my office. Things got real thereafter as we followed the storm into Joliet, with improving rotation and radar structure and called in another rotating wall cloud report to LOT. Finally, pulled over right near the office when the storm was almost literally overhead and that's when we observed a rapidly rotating wall cloud, a clearly visible RFD cut and were getting strong RFD winds. Called in another report to the office and found out they took shelter shortly after. It was a crazy experience being on the outside looking in and pretty scary how close it came to producing a tornado right in the metro. We followed the storm a little bit more to the northeast, but it gradually lost structure with time and we headed back.

This is the video from right near the office. (some brief NSFW language courtesy of yours truly lol):

 

Awesome video. Technical question, in the event you guys need to take cover in the office, what WFO takes over your area?

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Awesome video. Technical question, in the event you guys need to take cover in the office, what WFO takes over your area?

ILX took over warning responsibility last night when everyone in the office had to take cover. MKX has the capability to do warnings in backup for us if ILX is too busy with their own warnings.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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Yesterday's chase definitely got intense at the end. We targeted a storm with good structure near Abingdon in west central IL but never produced a tornado likely due to slightly lacking low level flow. Being that far west ended up putting us out of the game for the supercells that produced brief tornadoes in Livingston County, though we did try to catch up to the 2nd cell.

We followed the northern most cell that produced the tornado near Cornell and retained best structure through Morris to Channahon, with a visible wall cloud throughout. In Channahon, rotation improved and we had a view of a rotating wall cloud that I reported to my office. Things got real thereafter as we followed the storm into Joliet, with improving rotation and radar structure and called in another rotating wall cloud report to LOT. Finally, pulled over right near the office when the storm was almost literally overhead and that's when we observed a rapidly rotating wall cloud, a clearly visible RFD cut and were getting strong RFD winds. Called in another report to the office and found out they took shelter shortly after. It was a crazy experience being on the outside looking in and pretty scary how close it came to producing a tornado right in the metro. We followed the storm a little bit more to the northeast, but it gradually lost structure with time and we headed back.

This is the video from right near the office. (some brief NSFW language courtesy of yours truly lol):

 

Nice vid. Definitely looked close to producing.

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Hoping the Josh/Alek meet up happened

Did you stay the whole game? My drunk friends wanted to leave lol. It was such a lllllong delay. But I got to see wrigley. A good game (well part of) & the Tigers won. Tons of Tigers fans, didn't feel like an outsider. All in all a good night. The storm was neat but I would have preferred it held off until later.
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