Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 MD issued from northwest IL and northeast IA to eastern MO and far western IL. 60% watch probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1704.html Decided to pull the trigger on chasing with Adam Lucio and Danny Neal. We're currently heading stopped for gas off of I-80 near Princeton IL. Those bums Theta-e/instability axis running right up to I-80 west of there currently. Hopefully some better/heating mixing through the afternoon will stregthen the sfc flow a litte more. Shear there for supercells but given the high dew points/deep moisture/high PWATS and weak upper flow, would expect HP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Those bums Theta-e/instability axis running right up to I-80 west of there currently. Hopefully some better/heating mixing through the afternoon will stregthen the sfc flow a litte more. Shear there for supercells but given the high dew points/deep moisture/high PWATS and weak upper flow, would expect HP's. We're hoping that deepening of sfc low/pressure falls also increases the surface flow. If the 4km NAM has a clue there should be some nice crossovers in the area we're headed to during the mid-late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We'll see if something develops in the Tornado watch area and moves east, if the watch can be extended down the road.... Stops at Dekalb county on the east and goes west to Waterloo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The storm NW of Macomb would be the first one to watch, pretty strong updraft and impressive core shooting out of ILX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We'll see if something develops in the Tornado watch area and moves east, if the watch can be extended down the road.... Stops at Dekalb county on the east and goes west to Waterloo Yeah we'll see. Too bad DVN is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Yeah we'll see. Too bad DVN is down. Yeah bad timing for that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 dry cubs game prospects looking grim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Pondering the idea of heading out to chase after work shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Pondering the idea of heading out to chase after work shortly. I'd hang out near Princeton/Peru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Dang. I would chase but I have a haircut at a 3:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Pondering the idea of heading out to chase after work shortly. I've bee pondering too but continue to talk myself out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 the ol' haircut or chase dilema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 the ol' haircut or chase dilema lol I was thinking the same damn buzz cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 the ol' haircut or chase dilemaHahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Not surprised to see the shift east of the Day 1 slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 GRR: 000 FXUS63 KGRR 181923 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 323 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT A SURE THING AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY. OUR FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR. NOT ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE LINED UP FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT ENOUGH WILL BE PRESENT THAT THE THREAT REMAINS FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE BEST ELEMENT GOING FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 40K FT AND SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL THOUGH IT IS A LESSER SEVERE THREAT THAN THE 50+ KT WIND GUSTS THAT COULD MIX DOWN IN THE MOST MATURE STORMS. 0-1 KM SRH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT...PERHAPS 50-100 M2/S2 DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU ARE REFERENCING AND ALSO THE TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ROTATION ALOFT TO MONITOR. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SQUASHING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE LAKESHORE REGION AND INLAND TO US 131 WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT DURING THE DAY...LIKELY DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION THAT MAY BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN A DECENT 40 KT LLJ POINTED TOWARD THE STATE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WED. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA AND TOWARD MOP/LAN/JXN. CRAVEN/BROOKS SIG SEVERE PROBS FOR >20000 ARE ONLY 10-30% OFF THE SPC SREF FOR OUR REGION. SO...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A GIVEN. ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A VERY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT AND 1000-500 MB RH OF 80% OR BETTER AND SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME LAKESHORE AREAS COULD PICK UP A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...NAMDNG...AND HI RES WRF ARE SHOWING DECAYING CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WE CAN ERODE ANY CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY MORNING TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND KEEP THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GOING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE PAST 00Z THURS. PW VALUES HOLD UP TO AROUND 1.50-1.75" SO SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST. THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH SOME DECENT MIXING THAT COULD TAP 30 KT WINDS OR BETTER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ON THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 On the severe warned cell near St. Augustine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 are you broadcasting at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 dry cubs game prospects looking grimSo far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 are you broadcasting at all? We're not streaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think I am going to try and make a late run to 80/39 Joe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think I am going to try and make a late run to 80/39 Joe... so long as you don't have a haircut scheduled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Non severe storm dumped a ton of rain over a localized area around BG today. Just under 0.25" west of the city, and over 3" a couple miles from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 VERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 431 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ILC105-182200- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150818T2200Z/ LIVINGSTON IL- 431 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY... AT 430 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PONTIAC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CORNELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 So far so good we'll get a few innings in before a rain delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Just got home from work. Didn't have anything prepped and ready, so kind of screwed myself. May head out in a bit with whatever battery power is left in the one camera. Discrete cell moving straight north southeast of Annawan looks spicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 confirmed tornado SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 445 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ILC105-182200- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150818T2200Z/ LIVINGSTON IL- 445 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY... AT 444 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PONTIAC...NEAR CORNELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A BRIEF TORNADO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CORNELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 A lot of low level backing via obs. across the N half of IL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Watch extended east to DuPage and IN/IL border. Cook and Lake not part of it at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Tornado watch expanded east a few counties, but does not include Cook. Was at Wrigley a few years ago when Chicago was under a tor warning. Sirens sounded and 30k people were evacuated to the lower concourse but weren't allowed to leave the stadium. Alek and Snowfreak you guys don't want that. What a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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