Gilbertfly Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Wouldn't shock me to see something blow up overhead...I can see convergence of OFBs visually in the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Wouldn't shock me to see something blow up overhead...I can see convergence of OFBs visually in the clouds Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if that cell near Seneca trails NW towards you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Let me tell you, today has been our lucky day here in Northbrook (I know, pathetic) we got hit nicely with the afternoon cell that blasted north and mainly got rain and some reports of hail (I didnt see any where I was tho). We'll see if I get anything from the incoming cell in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Looks like some flood warnings will be needed into the city as things keep back building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Looks like some flood warnings will be needed into the city as things keep back buildingYeah. Interested to see if it comes here, how the drainage system will react. We got 1-1.5" of rain from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Had absolute buckets coming down in Oak brook earlier. Trucks were pulling off to the side of the roads down 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 00z NAM is finally showing some respectable parameters for the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Flash flood warning up for eastern Dupage into central Cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Yeah here in CH just a little rain. Parents in oak brook 5 miles north are in a deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Wouldn't want to traveling the Eisenhower Exp. tonight! Only 0.15" here for the day. Lightning strikes were also prevalent with the storm I drove into earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Some additional anvil showers added up a bit to make our total 0.26" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 More convection firing now down towards Peoria...and Iowa has quite a bit festering as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 New day 2 is a large marginal DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION. ..GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS 60KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD ACROSS IA INTO WI. DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD A SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THEN TRACK NEWD INTO WCNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS WRN WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FOCUS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT...HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. ONLY THE NAM GENERATES MODEST CAPE AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND THIS MAY BE DUE TO ERRONEOUSLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM. LATEST THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT 19/12Z ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD NEGATE HEATING AND LIMIT LAPSE RATES. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE NEAR THE SFC LOW...EWD ALONG THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT BUT DESTABILIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. IF BUOYANCY IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI THEN SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACROSS THIS REGION. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE DISORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 ended up with a nice soaker overnight timing looks like crap again today with another soaker/embedded thunder setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 October-like day today with a big soaking rain and a high of 65. Unusually strong low for mid-August. It's not often you hear about the possibility of getting dry-slotted on a storm this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 some minor street flooding downtown this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 October-like day today with a big soaking rain and a high of 65. Unusually strong low for mid-August. It's not often you hear about the possibility of getting dry-slotted on a storm this time of year. Yeah there's so much rain going on out west it's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 DVN radar is apparently down for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 looks like josh and i will be watching a dying line push in during the late innings tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Man, tomorrow totally didn't happen. Non severe squall line ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 looks like josh and i will be watching a dying line push in during the late innings tonight I used to go to Wrigley a few times a year, but not since ticket prices became outrageous. Kind of a scary place to be when severe comes rolling in. I would like to see it since the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Possible tornado watch MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND EASTERN IA TOWEST/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 181749Z - 181945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLYDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSSEAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND EASTERN IA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IL ANDSOUTHERN WI. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDSAND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS. ONE OR MORE WATCHISSUANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING EARLY THISAFTERNOON PRINCIPALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MO AND FAR EASTERNIA INTO IL...IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ARCING OUTFLOWBOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TOEAST-CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL INDIANA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERYREFLECTS SOME TOWERING CU BENEATH THE CIRRUS IN VICINITY OF THEBOUNDARY...WHILE MORE PREVALENT TOWERING CU IS NOTED WITHIN A WEAKBOUNDARY/ZONE OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO. ANORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING MCV/VORT MAX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWESTMO/SOUTHWEST IA WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEARACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENTLIKELY BY MID-AFTERNOON.AS LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THEAFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXISTIN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE MODIFYING/NORTHWARD-SHIFTINGOUTFLOW-RELATED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING /CURRENTLY ACROSS FAREASTERN IA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IL/ WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITYWILL BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE A PREVALENTCONCERN...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Color me skeptical on the reintroduction of the Slight Risk for Michigan tomorrow, with the best shear still looking to lag behind the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Also, interesting to see how far east the best tornado probabilities have shifted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 MD issued from northwest IL and northeast IA to eastern MO and far western IL. 60% watch probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1704.html Decided to pull the trigger on chasing with Adam Lucio and Danny Neal. We're currently heading stopped for gas off of I-80 near Princeton IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 MD issued from northwest IL and northeast IA to eastern MO and far western IL. 60% watch probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1704.html Decided to pull the trigger on chasing with Adam Lucio and Danny Neal. We're currently heading stopped for gas off of I-80 near Princeton IL. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Color me skeptical on the reintroduction of the Slight Risk for Michigan tomorrow, with the best shear still looking to lag behind the warm sector.We shouldn't have been removed to begin with. I am completely behind the reintroduction of the slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 MD issued from northwest IL and northeast IA to eastern MO and far western IL. 60% watch probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1704.html Decided to pull the trigger on chasing with Adam Lucio and Danny Neal. We're currently heading stopped for gas off of I-80 near Princeton IL. Good luck out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We shouldn't have been removed to begin with. I am completely behind the reintroduction of the slight risk. Interested to hear your reasoning behind that if you wouldn't mind sharing, as I do value your judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Interested to hear your reasoning behind that if you wouldn't mind sharing, as I do value your judgment. well nothing has changed in the models with respect to tomorrow, we will have decent shear especially along the front and a good amount of instability in the 1500-2000 J/kg. The models have been consistent with this which is why the reduction made no sense as nothing had changed other than the NAM actually getting more robust with the parameters. Basically there was no reason to change us to a marginal as nothing had changed in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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