HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Day 3 Outlook: Day 4 Outlook: CIPS analogs have timing issues, not posting them, GFS/NAM/ECMWF still have timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Henry Margusity on Accuweather says there'll be a major severe outbreak on Wednesday Severe weather will develop across parts of Montana today, then move into the northern Plains Saturday. Both areas will have damaging winds, hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The weather pattern due to the crash in the El Nino will become very active next week with more flooding, severe storms and extreme heat. The Midwest will have a major outbreak of severe weather Wednesday. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/severe-storms-into-saturdayweather-gets-wild-next-week/51759778 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Was just about to start a thread for severe and heavy rain... Looks like a wet and wild first half of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Oh Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 16, 2015 Author Share Posted August 16, 2015 And the SPC site is down. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Haven't seen the patented Margusity hype in a long time, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Haven't seen the patented Margusity hype in a long time, thankfully. Oh he's hyped it up a few times this year. I'm not sure if he was around in April 2011, but if he thinks this is a major outbreak coming up... I wonder what he was saying the day before the Super Outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 All they are talking about around here, is the possibility for some "strong storms" Monday night through Wednesday. No mention of the "o" word yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Oh he's hyped it up a few times this year. I'm not sure if he was around in April 2011, but if he thinks this is a major outbreak coming up... I wonder what he was saying the day before the Super Outbreak. He's been around a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Oh Henry. It always worries me when I am in one of Henry's severe storm or snowstorm zones, since he busts so much. It was nice to see every single model at 12z today (except the long range NAM) agree with what the GFS has been saying for a couple days with a 995mb low around the wisconsin / minnesota border area today. As usual it will come down more to how much crapvection and clouds will there be on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 ILN .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE PASSAGE OF TWO SIGNIFICANTSHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER NEXT SUNDAY.IN BETWEEN...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL FEATURERIDGING OFF BOTH COASTS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NATION/S MIDSECTION.A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE CNTL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILLBE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OFTHIS FEATURE/S TIMING AND DEPTH. THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS SHORTWAVEWILL EJECT RAPIDLY NNE INTO ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVEDIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAYAFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS INTO THECNTL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND MOVE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THEMIDWEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE KINEMATICS AFFECTING THE UPPERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.IN THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT ATTENDANTTO THE FIRST MINNESOTA-BASED SHORTWAVE WILL STRETCH FROM WISCONSINTO MISSOURI. OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BEENTRENCHED WITH PWAT AROUND 1.75" AND WEAK SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOWAHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK-MOD INSTBY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING THRUTHE DAY WED...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH /WHAT APPEARS TO BE/ A WEAKDISTURBANCE SHIFTING OUT OF THE CNTL MS VLY AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A LOOSELYFOCUSED/LOOSELY ORGANIZED FASHION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS...ANDREMNANT UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS INTHE LOW 80S BUT QUITE MUGGY ON WED.AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST WED EVENING...ONE OR TWO SCT-BKN LINESOF STORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT OVERLY ENAMOREDWITH SVR WX SETUP...STRONGER FLOW /SHEAR/ LAGS TO THE COOL SIDE OFTHE SYNOPTIC FRONT...AND STRONGEST DCVA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHPASSES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. MUCAPE/EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERLAP ISWEAK...WITH AOB 1500 J/KG AND 25KTS RESPECTIVELY BEING SHOWN BY MANYOF PAST GFS RUNS...HOWEVER A FEW SREF MEMBERS HAVE A LITTLE MOREROBUST INSTBY. EITHER WAY...INCREASED DYNAMICS...FRONTAL LIFT...ANDWEAK-MOD INSTBY/FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZEDSTORM THREAT...MAINLY IN WESTERN OH/SERN IND...AND MAINLY A DAMAGINGWIND THREAT. RIGHT NOW SETUP NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL CONT TOWATCH. In other words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 ILN In other words... For ILN, probably, timing is not the best and the better dynamics are further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Lows are pretty stacked up by the time we get to Wed, which will make for largely unidirectional wind profiles. Looks like a pretty decent severe wind event to me in the instability axis. Would imagine convection takes off pretty early in the day, relatively speaking given the impressive forcing. Also could be a situation where ongoing late night/early morning convection re-invigorates and becomes the main show. The western 2/3rds of lower MI, and northern IN look to have the best shot at widespread severe at this point to me. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Garbage timing for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Beaides what's been mentioned, early occlusion of the low could also throw a wrench into things, as the instability/moisture axis along with the values within said axis becomes increasingly narrow and pinches off. All things considered, given seasonal trends locally, I have very low (though non-zero) expectations for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Not too hot on severe prospects but it looks like a nice active convective period from this afternoon through tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Looks as if metro Chicago will be an overnight event to start tonight, perhaps some good lightning and a little wind, but not much else. I'll take the rain though. My water bill is gonna suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Yeah....as it looks now, widespread wouldn't be a word I would use with severe...but a strong SLP can overcome a lot to hit someone hard at some point. @IMBY....looks like some beefy totals could pop up in spots with repeated rounds and slower moving rounds...severe still on the table certainly...but not a given Iowa could have a pretty decent day tomorrow though WRT severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 NAM going big on the rain totals tonight across NW LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 NAM going big on the rain totals tonight across NW LOT nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 IWX has a nice long range write up, likes the new chances of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 medium range does look pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 medium range does look pretty good I dont know what you can see looking west, but the CU field has really built up out here (Oak Brook) in the last 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 yep, it went up over the whole metro area, we'll definitely see some pre-frontal activity this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 South Central IA looks pretty good tomorrow on the 4km NAM and pretty decent farther west on the 12km. Considering going chasing since I have the day off. Anyone gonna be out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Convection firing SE of Peoria....moving NE Edit....more showers then convection at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 South Central IA looks pretty good tomorrow on the 4km NAM and pretty decent farther west on the 12km. Considering going chasing since I have the day off. Anyone gonna be out there? Would love to if work wasn't in the way. Good luck if you head out there. Liking our area for some pretty decent storm action later this afternoon. Getting some nice heating ahead of that incoming cold front. NAM lays down 2-3" of rain in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 cu field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Nice double meaning there with growing towers ALEK... A couple of big boys going up to my NW visually here in bolingbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Radar estimates I got 0.6" from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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