Paper: Role of the strengthened El Niño teleconnection in the May 2015 floods over the southern Great Plains

[LocoAko]

Thought I'd follow Don S's pattern of creating threads for new peer-reviewed papers coming out. Perhaps we can form a catch-all thread for attribution studies with the latest literature? 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL065211/abstract

 

 

Abstract

The climate anomalies leading to the May 2015 floods in Texas and Oklahoma were analyzed in the context of El Niño teleconnection in a warmer climate. El Niño tends to increase late-spring precipitation in the southern Great Plains and this effect has intensified since 1980. There was a detectable effect of anthropogenic global warming in the physical processes that caused the persistent precipitation in May of 2015: Warming in the tropical Pacific acted to strengthen the teleconnection towards North America, modification of zonal wave-5 circulation that deepened the anomalous trough to the west of Texas, and an enhanced Great Plains low-level southerlies increasing moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Attribution analysis using the CMIP5 single-forcing experiments and the CESM Large Ensemble Project indicated a significant increase in the El Niño-induced precipitation anomalies over Texas and Oklahoma when increases in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases were taken into account.

I haven't yet read the paper but plan to once I am at work and have access.

[stadiumwave]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know the Texas floods were El Nino related.

#2 It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know that increase in water vapor from extremely warm Pacific & increase in GHG will enhance it.

[LithiaWx]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know the Texas floods were El Nino related.

#2 It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know that increase in water vapor from extremely warm Pacific & increase in GHG will enhance it.

Theoretical/anecdotal isn't equivalent to peer reviewed papers. While you're correct in your assumptions it doesn't mean this paper isn't needed to prove it.

[stadiumwave]

Theoretical/anecdotal isn't equivalent to peer reviewed papers. While you're correct in your assumptions it doesn't mean this paper isn't needed to prove it.

True...but, ya know

[donsutherland1]

Thought I'd follow Don S's pattern of creating threads for new peer-reviewed papers coming out. Perhaps we can form a catch-all thread for attribution studies with the latest literature? 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL065211/abstract

 

 

I haven't yet read the paper but plan to once I am at work and have access.

Thanks for sharing this paper. I look forward to reading it.

[ORH_wxman]

I think papers like these are very valuable. They are an important part of attribution studies.

I only dislike the way they are presented in the media. I do not think it is appropriate to only release these types of studies in an "alamist" rhetoric. As if there's only an increase in flooding for one area but then ignore that AGW prevents flooding for another area or reduces the drought for another area. It is deceptive to present a study in that manner IMHO. Maybe others disagree. But i feel it is important to look at every angle. Not only the one that "sounds" the worst for media purposes or other agenda. I know I am in the minority of these view for people who follow climate change closely, but it won't stop me from trying to engage. I think it is important to promote discussion on an honest level.

[Hoosier]

On this subject, we were wondering in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum if the excessive rains of June and into July could be attributed to the El Nino. It seemed like the May Southern Plains pattern, only shifted north.

[CoastalWx]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know the Texas floods were El Nino related.

#2 It doesn't take a rocket scientist or anyone with a PHD to know that increase in water vapor from extremely warm Pacific & increase in GHG will enhance it.

I think it's more about how the pattern that helped cause the heavy rain, may have been enhanced.

[Kelathos]

I would suggest that United States weather has been dominated by the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and Northeast Pacific Blob for the past couple years. That, regardless of El Nino, this feature has played a key role in the topic of discussion.