IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 New regional SPC WRF Loop, shows us getting absolutely smoked. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Another source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 New regional SPC WRF Loop, shows us getting absolutely smoked. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Another source Jackpot over western long island!!! This is what I am thinking. Somewhere some training convection should set up and somone could easily exceed 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I won't believe it's going to rain until I see it start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 IMO, NWS has a reasonable idea with its 1"-2" call. There will probably be localized higher amounts perhaps near or above 3". IMO, ARW is rarely realistic. It often overstates qpf, and by a large amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 00z RGEM E PA and NNJ JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 00z E PA and NNJ JP Qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Qpf map? Rgem is 1"-2"+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Close to 3"+ for Western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 One thing I will say, the HRRR has not been very impressive, at least not on the composite radar loop. It shows mainly a large area of stratiform moderate rain and through 16z and then some scattered convection behind it. Meanwhile the RAP is impressive looking. This would be a major blow to the RGEM if it failed this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 One thing I will say, the HRRR has not been very impressive, at least not on the composite radar loop. It shows mainly a large area of stratiform moderate rain and through 16z and then some scattered convection behind it. Meanwhile the RAP is impressive looking. This would be a major blow to the RGEM if it failed this close in. The hrrr has been doing good lately but i still dont trust it. I feel like the rgem and rap have a better handle of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Spots in NWNJ are up to 1.5". Wide area of 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Not much going on in my backyard. 0.40 inches on new rain. Kudos to the gfs model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Around the 1 inch mark in Chester NJ. Mist to light rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Half of Brooklyn and most of Queens at over an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Up to 0.70" of rain so far for the day at the closest reporting station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 heavy rains moving in here now. Good soaking incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY727 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM...SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM...SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY...WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY FROM 20 TO 40NM...WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET OUT 20 TO 40 NM...* UNTIL 815 AM EDT* AT 726 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS...CAPABLEOF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND WINDS TO 40 KNOTS...LOCATED ALONG ALINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR UPPER NEW YORK HARBOR TO 6 NM SOUTHWEST OFISLAND PARK TO 11 NM WEST OF BUOY 44025 TO 19 NM EAST OF SHARKRIVER REEF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS.* SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR...BARNUM ISLAND...MIDDLE BAY AND JONES INLET AROUND 735 AM EDT.EAST BAY AROUND 740 AM EDT.SOUTH OYSTER BAY AND BUOY 44025 AROUND 745 AM EDT.FIRE ISLAND INLET AROUND 750 AM EDT.GREAT SOUTH BAY AROUND 805 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 .75" so far. Lightly raining now, and it gets breezy occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Parts of Queens are up to 2 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Radar is underestimating rainfall rates. Small drops this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nice rainstorm. Pretty dark out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Brooklyn dryslotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 We still have a long way to go with this one. PWAT's are near 2" at the coast and > 1.80" for NW sections. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop. The HRRR doesn't dry slot until after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Pouring and windy since I woke up at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Ripping here, cant even see my neighbors house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Not much going on in my backyard. 0.40 inches on new rain. Kudos to the gfs model The GFS has done a terrible job for 90% of the area. Just look at how much it shifted South on the 06z run, clearly picking up on the heavy convection over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 1.3 inches so far here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 This definitely has a synoptic feel to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The Rgem nailed this event for NYC/LI. Had the correct precip maximum over the exact areas. NYC boroughs are all .75"-1.25" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 The Rgem nailed this event for NYC/LI. Had the correct precip maximum over the exact areas. NYC boroughs are all .75"-1.25" so far. I don't think that's right. The 00z RGEM had the heaviest rains NW. If you want to say that the 06z run nailed it then congrats. A high res mesoscale model nailed the heavy rains as they were on the doorstep, stellar job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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