Animal Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Long Island stands the best chance tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately for NNJ and NYC, the first batch might go just NW and the second might go just southeast. We really need that wave of low pressure to develop near TTN in order to get the excessive totals. The 12z GFS is actually much wetter for our area than the 06z run was. Here is the 06z graphic for comparison. The 12z GFS was closer to the 00z run. Not a carbon copy, but the same general jackpot zone. Yea and inch or two of rain is nothing really that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Yea and inch or two of rain is nothing really that impressive Yes because we get plenty of these types of events during the Summer months? Yeah, no. Unless you're going to get a tropical system, or the remnants of such system, it's pretty rare to get widespread heavy rainfall from 6/1-9/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Its a convective event that will dump heavy totals in places where training happens but this isnt some rare event...we usually see these at some points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 I will admit that this is a very fickle setup, with the heaviest rains clearly falling where the LLJ/WAA is maximized. That's why models are keying in on a QPF max over NW areas and then a secondary over SE areas. NYC/LI did the best when it was more likely an area of low pressure would form on the front. Now that seems less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015081012&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=500 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 yeah, lol, like there's anything else to track right now....78 and sunny--yippe.4 pages of talk on that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 There is actually some pretty decent agreement now on the heaviest axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 12z GGEM is an areawide deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 In my opinion, this is an areawide moderate .50"-1" rainfall with a training heavy rainfall of 2"-3" for select areas (unknown). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 12z GGEM is an areawide deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 In my opinion, this is an areawide moderate .50"-1" rainfall with a training heavy rainfall of 2"-3" for select areas (unknown). That's a very reasonable assessment. FWIW 12z UKMET showing heavy rain potential over area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Flood watches up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty big disagreement between the GFS and GGEM/UKMET. Maybe the foreign models are developing a low quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I still believe this is a SNJ jackpot. This is just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 A few more hours and the HRRR will be in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty big disagreement between the GFS and GGEM/UKMET. Maybe the foreign models are developing a low quicker? convective noise. there will be areas that get 2-3" but the specifics are impossible to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Euro? .5-1" area wide. Central/E CT 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Batch of rain south of Philly area will most likely miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Flash Flood watches are up for the immediate NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Flash Flood watches are up for the immediate NYC metro. They've been out for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Batch of rain south of Philly area will most likely miss us. that looks like sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Batch of rain south of Philly area will most likely miss us. 100% as advertised so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 my lawn looks like something out of the sahara. Areas that miss could have a long wait for the next round of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 my lawn looks like something out of the sahara. Areas that miss could have a long wait for the next round of rain That would be disaster out on the island especially the south shore. I think there is going to be some big winners with this event similar to what we have seen in the past. What really matters now is the placement of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Been really dry over here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The recent dryness only adds to the flash flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I'm down in ocean city, md. Any potential for some severe storms out of this down this way? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Some of the latest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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