IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 For several days models have been keying in on the potential for some very heavy rain late Monday night into Tuesday night. This looks to come in the form of several waves. The main cause is an unseasonably amplified trough swinging through Quebec which will allow several shortwaves to round the base and cross our region. There are even some indications of a secondary low pressure system developing along the warm front which would greatly increase low level shear out ahead of it. You can see here how the LLJ really cranks up late tonight just to the NW of NYC. While it's unclear exactly where the heaviest rains are going to fall due to the convective nature of this threat, we have traditionally done very well in these early morning warm frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 6z 4km NAM has 1.6-3+" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 RGEM agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 The wxbell picture in the NE forum is a lot clearer. LI loses out once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 RGEM agrees LI is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 What is the general timing of the event? Wondering what the chances of my outdoor event at 8pm Tuesday evening is being held or cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 What is the general timing of the event? Wondering what the chances of my outdoor event at 8pm Tuesday evening is being held or cancelled? Most models have a ton of activity until the early morning hours on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The SREF mean just got a lot wetter for our region. Pretty amazing how the models almost always seem to be too far Northwest in these setups until inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 The SREF mean just got a lot wetter for our region. Pretty amazing how the models almost always seem to be too far Northwest in these setups until inside 24 hours. What do the plumes say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 What do the plumes say? EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The worst of the weather falls from 12z-18z on the 12z NAM for NYC. Secondary low pressure forms right ontop of NYC and SNE gets hammered. I can't say I would be shocked if they got the worst of the weather. That seems to be the common theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 A secondary area of heavy rain should then from near DC on Tuesday afternoon and cross the area on Tuesday night. The NAM surges SBCAPE with ~2500 J/KG into NYC by 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 12z NAM totals 4k 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 12z NAM totals 4k 12k Same idea, but with different screw zones and lollypops. Impossible to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Most models have a ton of activity until the early morning hours on Wednesday. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The 4k NAM actually has an 8.5" max over Bergen County, NJ. Just goes to show you how much potential there is. PWAT's increase to almost 2.25" by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Someone in Morris/North Essex might get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 wouldnt be suprised to see flash flood watches up shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 NNJ is looking like the sweet spot for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 NNJ is looking like the sweet spot for this event What about Philly area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 What about Philly area? Philly will get their rains but the models i seen are showing nnj jackpotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 12 Z GFS shows around 0.5 to max an inch of rain across the area. All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 12 Z GFS shows around 0.5 to max an inch of rain across the area. All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical. Best. Yeah. GFS has .5 inches to 1.5 inches with NNJ with the jackpot. It looks like it shafts LI once again. But this is the model with the least amount of rain on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 12 Z GFS shows around 0.5 to max an inch of rain across the area. All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical. Best. it's a convective event, so you are going to see some crazy bullseyes...no one is getting 5 even, but certain spots will get nailed while others get relatively shafted GFS is a global model, so it will smooth out the totals while NAM which is a meso model will show the crazy bullseyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 12 Z GFS shows around 0.5 to max an inch of rain across the area. All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical. Best. The 12z GFS shows the same QPF max over NNJ as all of the other modeling. 1"+. Most people wouldn't expect a global, lower res model to show the same totals as a high res mesoscale model. I think we've all acknowledged that the higher end totals (5"+) are highly unlikely to happen unless some serious training occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 The 12z GFS is actually much wetter for our area than the 06z run was. Here is the 06z graphic for comparison. The 12z GFS was closer to the 00z run. Not a carbon copy, but the same general jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Yeah. GFS has .5 inches to 1.5 inches with NNJ with the jackpot. It looks like it shafts LI once again. But this is the model with the least amount of rain on it Long Island stands the best chance tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately for NNJ and NYC, the first batch might go just NW and the second might go just southeast. We really need that wave of low pressure to develop near TTN in order to get the excessive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 12 Z GFS shows around 0.5 to max an inch of rain across the area. All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical. Best. This. I am not sure why every convective QPF event has to be turned into a dam burst. This is just a pretty standard high PWAT event that could deliver a few lollipops of 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Long Island stands the best chance tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately for NNJ and NYC, the first batch might go just NW and the second might go just southeast. We really need that wave of low pressure to develop near TTN in order to get the excessive totals. Yeah on second look Eastern LI looks to do the best with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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