Severe threat/ Heavy rain SE SNE 08/11 disco

[CoastalWx]

Some of the threats today were really hyped up. We have to reel it in I think. To just throw out the tornado word in order to cover your azz so some mayor doesn't say "we had no idea" is getting nuts. Save it for the real deal. The rip and read morning crews tend to run with hyped ideas and it's misleading.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That band does look boomy if not thick

We are at 0.76" thus far

Maybe we can score an inch

High dews. But starting tomorrow I will experience 8 days of 74F+ dews

[SnowMan]

Will that line of rain forming in VT and MA come through southern NH or is it moving SE?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Will that line of rain forming in VT and MA come through southern NH or is it moving SE?

Not sure it reaches too far north

[Whineminster]

That band does look boomy if not thick

We are at 0.76" thus far

Maybe we can score an inch

High dews. But starting tomorrow I will experience 8 days of 74F+ dews

Isn't it a wonderful thing? 

[TalcottWx]

Some of the threats today were really hyped up. We have to reel it in I think. To just throw out the tornado word in order to cover your azz so some mayor doesn't say "we had no idea" is getting nuts. Save it for the real deal. The rip and read morning crews tend to run with hyped ideas and it's misleading.

I was surprised that they went with enhanced wording and tor. As we discussed briefly earlier modeling really pulled back the reigns on the possible quick spin up look it had night before.

[Quincy]

Some of the threats today were really hyped up. We have to reel it in I think. To just throw out the tornado word in order to cover your azz so some mayor doesn't say "we had no idea" is getting nuts. Save it for the real deal. The rip and read morning crews tend to run with hyped ideas and it's misleading.

Agreed. Brief spin-ups can happen in "meh" setups, but even the more aggressive model solutions only showed a very marginal environment for such. 06z NAM with pockets of 500 J/kg MLCAPE? It's not like the area was forecast to break out with discrete supercells forming (veering winds anyway) and model guidance was showing the massive morning shield of generally sub-severe convection. Just because it's summer and dews are high does not mean a convective setup with some wind shear will produce notable severe. Garden variety marginally damaging wind gusts, sure, but even a lot of those won't reach official severe criteria.

[Quincy]

I was surprised that they went with enhanced wording and tor. As we discussed briefly earlier modeling really pulled back the reigns on the possible quick spin up look it had night before.

Just looking at early morning models, there was kinematic support with a stout low-level jet and enlarged hodographs. The writing on the wall was the lack of instability, very moist forecast soundings and extensive precip shield.

[weatherwiz]

Well to be fair it's not like they were calling for tornadoes or saying they will happen.  They highlighted that it's not out of the question a brief weak tornado could occur.  I don't find anything wrong with mentioning potential, just as long as you stress and emphasize the likelihood of occurrence.  

 

These setups are always quite challenging b/c while maybe 99% of the time they don't produce, there is that 1% time they do..and this is the big question...why is it that 1% of the time and what is completely different this time than the 99% of other times?  

 

This is why convective forecasting IMO is much more challenging than say winter weather forecasting, especially around these parts b/c with severe there are not many absolutes and it mainly comes down to nowcasting.  

[Quincy]

Well to be fair it's not like they were calling for tornadoes or saying they will happen.  They highlighted that it's not out of the question a brief weak tornado could occur.  I don't find anything wrong with mentioning potential, just as long as you stress and emphasize the likelihood of occurrence.  

 

These setups are always quite challenging b/c while maybe 99% of the time they don't produce, there is that 1% time they do..and this is the big question...why is it that 1% of the time and what is completely different this time than the 99% of other times?  

 

This is why convective forecasting IMO is much more challenging than say winter weather forecasting, especially around these parts b/c with severe there are not many absolutes and it mainly comes down to nowcasting.  

Maybe it's more about public perception. I wasn't even following social media much, but in the short time that I was on Twitter, several locals were really hyping up a tornado threat. It wasn't just the usual hypsters either.

[weatherwiz]

Just looking at early morning models, there was kinematic support with a stout low-level jet and enlarged hodographs. The writing on the wall was the lack of instability, very moist forecast soundings and extensive precip shield.

 

What doesn't make matters any easier with the instability factor is there really isn't a magic number.  There have been times we've only had like 200 joules of MLcape and got a brief tornado while other times we managed like 500 joules and nada.  In these setups I think looking at like 0-1km and 0-3km capes might be much more of a stronger indicator.  

 

The reason being, these setups are filled with very shallow convection and the main ingredients are located around or below 850mb (i.e. strong shear) so if you even get near 100 joules of cape in this layer that can provide to be sufficient enough if an updraft is able to utilize it

[CoastalWx]

Well to be fair it's not like they were calling for tornadoes or saying they will happen. They highlighted that it's not out of the question a brief weak tornado could occur. I don't find anything wrong with mentioning potential, just as long as you stress and emphasize the likelihood of occurrence.

These setups are always quite challenging b/c while maybe 99% of the time they don't produce, there is that 1% time they do..and this is the big question...why is it that 1% of the time and what is completely different this time than the 99% of other times?

This is why convective forecasting IMO is much more challenging than say winter weather forecasting, especially around these parts b/c with severe there are not many absolutes and it mainly comes down to nowcasting.

The problem is that to you need to communicate the threat. Every threat can have a weird spin up. It's mentioned in so many threats now. The morning TV crews are full of rip and readers that don't have a clue about meteorology. They take the AFDs and run with it. I mean it's absurd. One clown decided to say a "med-high" risk of winds today? What the fook? It's out of control. It does nothing for the public except to mislead and scare.

[weatherwiz]

Maybe it's more about public perception. I wasn't even following social media much, but in the short time that I was on Twitter, several locals were really hyping up a tornado threat. It wasn't just the usual hypsters either.

 

hmm interesting.  Outside of the very small potential for a brief tornado there was really no need to mention anything further.  I know I didn't even mention it when I made a quick post.  I can understand mentioning the potential for a quick one but going nuts about it...doesn't make sense.  

[Quincy]

What doesn't make matters any easier with the instability factor is there really isn't a magic number.  There have been times we've only had like 200 joules of MLcape and got a brief tornado while other times we managed like 500 joules and nada.  In these setups I think looking at like 0-1km and 0-3km capes might be much more of a stronger indicator.  

 

The reason being, these setups are filled with very shallow convection and the main ingredients are located around or below 850mb (i.e. strong shear) so if you even get near 100 joules of cape in this layer that can provide to be sufficient enough if an updraft is able to utilize it

I have to give SPC and most of the area mets credit for (in my opinion) appropriately summarizing the setup. 2% tor risk by SPC? Completely justified. Mention in the BOX AFD due to enhanced SRH? Absolutely.

[weatherwiz]

The problem is that to you need to communicate the threat. Every threat can have a weird spin up. It's mentioned in so many threats now. The morning TV crews are full of rip and readers that don't have a clue about meteorology. They take the AFDs and run with it. I mean it's absurd. One clown decided to say a "med-high" risk of winds today? What the fook? It's out of control. It does nothing for the public except to mislead and scare.

 

I see what you're saying...this is one reason why I've really been interested in research and hopefully one day get the opportunity to analyze thousands of events and setups around here and hopefully finding some clues or whatever which may be able to give some insight into knowing what setup may actually produce.  This way it can hopefully improve communication.  

 

But I do notice it seems these setups often get pumped up much more than they should.  I think it really all stems from around 2007 or something...I think it was that summer it seemed like every low cape/high shear event produced so some started to get the idea that these were the setups to go big on

[IsentropicLift]

Still waiting for my "landphoon"

#hype #allstormsmustbedamaging #meh

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Some big rumbles with the line approaching Greenfield.  Looks like it's right over MPM's head right now.   

 

At .95" now so this should easily push us over 1" for the day.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1.28"

.32" in 15 minutes, not bad. 

[ineedsnow]

Line seems pretty meh now

[dryslot]

1.0"

[Damage In Tolland]

Still waiting for my "landphoon"

#hype #allstormsmustbedamaging #meh

Still waiting for the 5-7 inches of rain promised by you in NYC thread. Most places under an inch in SNE . Highest amounts again in SE NEw Eng and lowest in central SNE

[CT Rain]

The problem is that to you need to communicate the threat. Every threat can have a weird spin up. It's mentioned in so many threats now. The morning TV crews are full of rip and readers that don't have a clue about meteorology. They take the AFDs and run with it. I mean it's absurd. One clown decided to say a "med-high" risk of winds today? What the fook? It's out of control. It does nothing for the public except to mislead and scare.

The problem is that just because something is a possibility doesn't mean it needs to be mentioned in a weather report. A very low probability tornado possibility will have me staring at 88d all day but I'm not going to necessarily hype it on air.

We started doing these "threat graphics" 4 years ago and are extremely conservative with the numbers. Other stations have taken the idea and run with it while saying everything is high impact. Ugh.

[moneypitmike]

Picked up .36" in 20 minutes.  Looks like that's it.

 

1.25" on the day.

[weatherwiz]

The problem is that just because something is a possibility doesn't mean it needs to be mentioned in a weather report. A very low probability tornado possibility will have me staring at 88d all day but I'm not going to necessarily hype it on air.

We started doing these "threat graphics" 4 years ago and are extremely conservative with the numbers. Other stations have taken the idea and run with it while saying everything is high impact. Ugh.

 

I could see mentioning it in a discussion or something.  In a discussion you aren't fighting time and can elaborate much more, however, on air with time constraints and such it's probably not worth mentioning.  

[eekuasepinniW]

I walked onto the deck to check the drizzle, saw nothing, turned my back and clickZzzzzipbang with flickering lights.  The type of thunder crash that makes you check the roof for smoke.  I heard a rumble about 10 minutes ago but nothing since then.  I think I'm ok with not having seen this particular strike.  Good lord.

[eekuasepinniW]

Wow, two more semi-close strikes now.

[Guvna]

I walked onto the deck to check the drizzle, saw nothing, turned my back and clickZzzzzipbang with flickering lights.  The type of thunder crash that makes you check the roof for smoke.  I heard a rumble about 10 minutes ago but nothing since then.  I think I'm ok with not having seen this particular strike.  Good lord.

YIKES!!!!!

[Guvna]

Some people need a break from this board. I feel like I'm back in high school at times....geez.

[eekuasepinniW]

Well at least I know the lightning data subscription I bought last month is pretty accurate.

 

[dendrite]

I walked onto the deck to check the drizzle, saw nothing, turned my back and clickZzzzzipbang with flickering lights.  The type of thunder crash that makes you check the roof for smoke.  I heard a rumble about 10 minutes ago but nothing since then.  I think I'm ok with not having seen this particular strike.  Good lord.

Just think...friction from ice crystals caused that strike.

I gave you a new reason to hate ice.