TalcottWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT/INSTABILITY/HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS /TRANSLATED DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERLY JET/ WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES OF 150+ ON ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. Looks much more poor than yesterday. Disappointed to see the models now when I woke up. euro moved the qpf max to maine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I don't think anything has changed since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like a general soaking synoptic rain on radar...just a nice large area of light to moderate rain with embedded heavier bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I'm somewhat baffled that my zfp has an 80% POP for today. They must do great at the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like a general soaking synoptic rain on radar...just a nice large area of light to moderate rain with embedded heavier bursts. image.jpg That pic doesn't do it justice. Wxtap looks more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 That pic doesn't do it justice. Wxtap looks more robust. It does show better rains. So far it's been pretty meh--but the heaviest stuff should get here until 8:00 as near as I can tell. That looks pretty spot on. 62.8/2 .03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Bring it on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nice lines of convective type downpours and embedded thunder. Let's hope it holds together across all of SNE that really needs it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nice lines of convective type downpours and embedded thunder. Let's hope it holds together across all of SNE that really needs it You'll get your nice soaking rain today for the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Landscape really needs a good soaking. Lush green has become fewer and farther between around here over the past 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 That pic doesn't do it justice. Wxtap looks more robust. Bring it on!!! I think you need something in between this image and the one Scott posted to get the weathertap intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 we drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I'm somewhat baffled that my zfp has an 80% POP for today. They must do great at the track.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 we drink we green. .06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 we green. .06" I wonder how much more rain you'll get than me today. You usually wind up with more than here. .07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Maybe someone gets lucky today with a big boy banger. I'm not holding my breath with all the moisture saturation and lack of surface heating but maybe a few towns see something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Really nice looking couplet south of Long Island, and pretty deep too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Really nice looking couplet south of Long Island, and pretty deep too. hope the fish are enjoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like hourly rains are generally 0.05-0.25", though embedded heavier stuff up to 0.4"/hr like what just moved through the POU area. Going back to NY state, the rainfall with this band has been generally 0.25-0.75", with local 1" amounts. Seems pretty much on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like hourly rains are generally 0.05-0.25", though embedded heavier stuff up to 0.4"/hr like what just moved through the POU area. Going back to NY state, the rainfall with this band has been generally 0.25-0.75", with local 1" amounts. Seems pretty much on track. Synoptic appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 A few decent gusts for a line not even producing in-cloud flashes. 36 knots at ISP and I think a 38 knot gust at JFK earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 A few decent gusts for a line not even producing in-cloud flashes. 36 knots at ISP and I think a 38 knot gust at JFK earlier. BTV had some synoptic southerly winds earlier of 21G32kts. KBTV 110754Z AUTO 19021G32KT 8SM -RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Its actually raining quite hard. Now this is a good soaking rain. Winds increasing in the higher elevation. That new rapid update station on Sterling/Whiteface Mountain at 3,660ft immediately north of Mansfield on the Spine is up to sustained near 30mph and gusting to 40mph...and its been ramping up quickly. Who ever stuck a Davis Vantage Pro at 3,600ft on a peak with no roads is my hero. Already a quick 0.42" up at the summit level with 0.20" in the valley. The big difference in that station and the Mansfield one is that you get real-time rainfall updates. On Mansfield you have to wait for the Co-Op report for the rain totals. But now just a few miles away there's a rapid update station at about the same elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Its actually raining quite hard. Now this is a good soaking rain. Winds increasing in the higher elevation. That new rapid update station on Sterling/Whiteface Mountain at 3,660ft immediately north of Mansfield on the Spine is up to sustained near 30mph and gusting to 40mph...and its been ramping up quickly. Who ever stuck a Davis Vantage Pro at 3,600ft on a peak with no roads is my hero. Already a quick 0.42" up at the summit level with 0.20" in the valley. Such a great elevation too. There is an absolute dearth of observations around that height around these parts. Like we're better sampled above 5,000 feet than in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I wonder how much more rain you'll get than me today. You usually wind up with more than here. .07" Up to .28" at 9:20am with moderate rain and more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I don't think anything has changed since yesterday. Instability and the thunderish look disappeared off the NAM 12k. Further SE over Cape Islands. No round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Instability and the thunderish look disappeared off the NAM 12k. Further SE over Cape Islands. No round 2. It's there. I guess what I mean is that this to me, never looked like something with a lot of thunder..esp morning. The aftn could feature some with heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 A few decent gusts for a line not even producing in-cloud flashes. 36 knots at ISP and I think a 38 knot gust at JFK earlier. No surprise really. The models cranked the jet right in time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It's there. I guess what I mean is that this to me, never looked like something with a lot of thunder..esp morning. The aftn could feature some with heating. Yeah, miscommunication. I was talking specifically regarding a more impressive line of training storms in the afternoon. It looked better yesterday in that regard. Today it looks more meh. Still wouldn't surprise me if we see a storm or two go severe. Watch for cloud breaks in the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nice embedded rotation new New Haven. Probably some isolated higher gusts around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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