OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Wonder if GFS is into its "final-48 qpf slide" that was pretty consistent for here 2nd half of winter. Earlier runs (yesterday, this morning) gave AUG up to 1.2", but 12z down to 0.8". That amount would be fine, unless the slide were to continue/accelerate. I'm not seeing a hugely strong signal for greater than an inch (outside of parts of eastern NY). Ensemble guidance is hitting the usual suspects (southerly upslope zones) with higher probabilities. But the majority of areas outside of the high terrain they don't love for high QPF amounts. Even though individual models have high totals, when you add up all the perturbations out there you see that the ops runs might just be deterministic noise. Could be that convective elements of high totals or nothing average out to less than 1 inch, or it could be that the LLJ is just too progressive to maintain widespread 1+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Who are going to be haves vs have nots? And don't say we have no idea since its convection 74/70 all day long tomorrow..with morning convection ..a break ..and another round of evening convection. Scattered around..winners..and losers..typical summer convection Typical summer convection (along with synoptic forcing), good luck pinning it down for max zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It's also tough in general for models to handle synoptic rain events in summer since convection will cause havoc with output. One thing nice about winter, is the usually well modeled synoptics. Lack of convection is a plus for accuracy despite all the cursing we may do, when models slide too far offshore. In some cases, those ticks east are also due to convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Widespread 1"+ on the 12Z EPS...should be my biggest drink since 7/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I mean expect embedded storms, but don't be surprised if there is a synoptic appeal too.lol, if he says non synoptic no one can convince him otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 LOL...This thread is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 what the heck is a landphoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Just looked at everything. My consensus of all models has the max new haven to boston. High totals really everywhere. The euro does produce a low level jet that should involve much of southern new england seeing significant rain. If we break into any sun tomorrow there may be some pretty gusty winds and a potential for localized stormier cells. It has that renegade severe warning or two look to it. I would expect that over SE MA or RI or somewhere near the southeastern portions of the CWA. There could be some impressive rainfall totals if the heavier stuff trains. It does have that look to it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Seems to come in two total batches on the 12k nam. There is a secondary line that has the tropical heavy downpour with thunder look to it that lifts into New England early Wednesday. That would be SE MA, Cape, Islands likely SE of the BOS PVD corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 what the heck is a landphoonThe thermal low situated over Tolland from Morch through Seartember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Looks like the Phoon goes right overhead. If there's gonna be any spin ups..it's with the phoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Where is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Right over your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Right over your area Congrats on jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Give the people what they want. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Just looked at some 18z runs and there is a very low probability of a very brief/weak spin-up tomorrow in the Hudson Valley area into NW CT. Have to watch and see if llvl winds remain backed at all but shear in the lowest few km isn't too shabby and some guidance does hint at the possibility of several hundred joules of mixed-later cape. My guess is if something were to occur it would be very challenging to pick up on radar b/c the signature would be brief and would be engulfed in a mess of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Just looked at some 18z runs and there is a very low probability of a very brief/weak spin-up tomorrow in the Hudson Valley area into NW CT. Have to watch and see if llvl winds remain backed at all but shear in the lowest few km isn't too shabby and some guidance does hint at the possibility of several hundred joules of mixed-later cape. My guess is if something were to occur it would be very challenging to pick up on radar b/c the signature would be brief and would be engulfed in a mess of precipitation. Looks like there is instability in the southeast portions though it appeared to me at least.. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong you know more than me with severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like there is instability in the southeast portions though it appeared to me at least.. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong you know more than me with severe Historically with these type of setups it's very difficult to pinpoint where the greatest instability will occur b/c it all depends on isolated pockets of heating. However, with a SW flow in the llvls, this can help to erode the cloud deck a bit, especially across the Hudson into extreme western CT. Around 15z-18z, some soundings show several hundred joules of mixed-layer cape across western CT with some pretty decent shear...the only question is whether we see a more SE component to the sfc winds. Also, these setups can yield another pocket of higher instability totals, right where you mentioned and this is helped from higher sfc dews/theta-e air and also b/c timing is usually later on, that allows a bigger window for some breaks of sun. I do like the heavy rain signal though for much of the region...this is really a pretty solid setup for some widespread stratoform rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Congrats on jackpot.Where will you put another 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Where will you put another 2-4?Keep it rated PG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Where will you put another 2-4? You whined about it. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Wtf is going on here? I did note trump's tweet of a landphoon over northeast Connecticut being a sign of discontent of the American people..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT/INSTABILITY/HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORTSHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS/TRANSLATED DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERLY JET/ WILL BE A CONCERN THISAFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES OF 150+ ONALL THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nw zones will probaby have a longe period Of more stratiform type precip while central and eastern areas may have to wait and see where the triple point, warm front and meso low and convective elements set up. The land of slow and steady. 62.7/61 .01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT/INSTABILITY/HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS /TRANSLATED DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERLY JET/ WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES OF 150+ ON ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL. SPC has us in...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 SPC has us in...nothing. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Taunton has thrown around the tornado word in about every threat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 You whined about it. Congrats. On what? Jack is Ginx to you SE..awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Who cares?Certainty not SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 On what? Jack is Ginx to you SE..awt I think you are blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.