Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Models seem to be honing in again on areas that have gotten blasted all summer with a low end spinner and/or wind damage threat on Tuesday. Warm SST's should help fuel any early AM convection. Hopefully for the parched areas of SNE and CNE that have been missed all summer there's at least some rain .. But seems best threat is the new severe Wx capital of SE SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Please bring it on. I use to have a 8 foot pond. Now just a dirt hole. Never before happened. Towns all around me have gotten storms but I missed everything the last month. Lawns are green cause of constant water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Euro shows the scenario quite well. Same places pounded all summer pounded again with rain and severe while rest of us screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Some pretty impressive signals for a period...perhaps a couple periods of extremely heavy rains on Tuesday, especially in any embedded convection. Some spots could end up getting 2-3'' of rainfall on Tuesday (maybe even slightly higher depending on how things transpire). Looks like the warm front may stall across central New England and south of the warm front you have a LLJ potentially as strong as 30-35 knots from the south or southeast overspreading boat loads of moisture into some pretty strong lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Dunno WiZ.. All signs point to another Scooter Sw to RI special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Dunno WiZ.. All signs point to another Scooter Sw to RI special Except it hasn't been me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Except it hasn't been me.Not in max zone, but you've def gotten decent rains that areas NW of Ginx haven't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Dunno WiZ.. All signs point to another Scooter Sw to RI special for severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 for severe?Def for severe , but also heavy rains. Wherever the convection goes.. NW of that gets robbed. We've seen this same setup 3-4 times this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Def for severe , but also heavy rains. Wherever the convection goes.. NW of that gets robbed. We've seen this same setup 3-4 times this summer I agree with regards to the heavy rains, however, I don't think there is much severe potential with this setup. Yes anytime with these setups you stand a very low chance for maybe a isolated wet microburst or a quick spin-up, however, with a setup say like last week you want to see pretty steep lapse rates and sfc dews rising into the lower 70's and very strong shear, especially in the mid-levels. You also want to have the presence of dry air in the mid-levels to enhance lapse rates and increase downburst potential. With this setup you have a very saturated column throughout the atmosphere and this makes it very difficult to maintain and achieve solid cape values. Any cape is "water logged" and when that occurs the threat quickly shifts more towards heavy rain. I think we will see two areas of max rainfall, one occurring right near the triple point where you have enhanced lift (isentropic lift with the warm front, lift from approaching cold front, and jet support), and strong moisture advection overriding this lift. The second access will be right where you indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 I agree with regards to the heavy rains, however, I don't think there is much severe potential with this setup. Yes anytime with these setups you stand a very low chance for maybe a isolated wet microburst or a quick spin-up, however, with a setup say like last week you want to see pretty steep lapse rates and sfc dews rising into the lower 70's and very strong shear, especially in the mid-levels. You also want to have the presence of dry air in the mid-levels to enhance lapse rates and increase downburst potential. With this setup you have a very saturated column throughout the atmosphere and this makes it very difficult to maintain and achieve solid cape values. Any cape is "water logged" and when that occurs the threat quickly shifts more towards heavy rain. I think we will see two areas of max rainfall, one occurring right near the triple point where you have enhanced lift (isentropic lift with the warm front, lift from approaching cold front, and jet support), and strong moisture advection overriding this lift. The second access will be right where you indicated. Which all points to the rich NNE and SE NE getting most of the sig rains while the middle sees scattered showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Not in max zone, but you've def gotten decent rains that areas NW of Ginx haven't Not really. It's been more TAN-GHG on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 @Ants_SNEweather surface set ups are very close indeed...1982 on top, Tues on bottom Very similar setup (to Tues) back in late July of 1982, produced an F1 tornado near Waterbury CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Which all points to the rich NNE and SE NE getting most of the sig rains while the middle sees scattered showers On the GFS at least the LLJ actually ramps up pretty good across CT and there are other parameters in place which actually could allow for a decent slug of rain to push right across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Not too shabby for folks who want a little rain. 65.3/59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 More instability in the overnight runs..Should lead to some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow/tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 More instability in the overnight runs..Should lead to some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow/tomorrow night Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Keep us posted. How much more rain will you get this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Keep us posted. I'm sure he'll cherry pick a few QPF maps for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Kev will love this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 That's about what I've been envisioning. SE and NW getting the goods. Hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Why anyone would wish for rain this time of year is beyond me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Why anyone would wish for rain this time of year is beyond me....Yeah, gardens can be watered, grass I don't care about.That being said, many lawns around here are starting to look fried so I'm sure some would appreciate rain. The NAM outcome would not surprise me though, it's been a few weeks of 7/10 splits for W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 And 6 hours later..... this. Just another day in the life of the QPF queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 And 6 hours later..... this. Just another day in the life of the QPF queens. Right. It's silly for Kevin to apply the "same thing as every other event" logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Right. It's silly for Kevin to apply the "same thing as every other event" logic.In your "expert" opinion.. Who are going to be haves vs have nots based on what you see? And don't say we have no idea since its convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 In your "expert" opinion.. Who are going to be haves vs have nots based on what you see? And don't say we have no idea since its convection lol this pattern is getting to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 lol this pattern is getting to you.Just trying to get mets opinions on who gets what and why. What is the harm there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Just looking at the BTV4, quite the impressive low level jet for early/mid August ripping north up eastern New York and western New England. It's got a core of 60kts at H85 moving north from BGM to ALB to BTV. Going to be a breezy day in the Champlain Valley where they can get much better mixing. Summits should also see some fairly strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Just trying to get mets opinions on who gets what and why. What is the harm there? It seemed overly specific. I'm not sure you can pin it down in such a small area. You seemed like you are looking for a county by county break-down of who sees what. If you just look at the 6z and 12z guidance, each model is slightly different in placements of features and it looks convective in nature. One model will have a quarter inch of rain here, while the next will have 1.5". It looks "streaky" with multiple bands of haves and have nots. I'm not sure anyone is going to pin that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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