nrgjeff Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Strong connection this year to our dirty SER. I'm seeking permission from a vendor to post their charts, for educational purposes only. They may agree for non commercial use. Otherwise I hope you are right, but I'm afraid I am. We scored two winters in a row. Could we get a Trifecta? Frankly I'm great with the crap winter 4 Royals WS trade, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Strong connection this year to our dirty SER. I'm seeking permission from a vendor to post their charts, for educational purposes only. They may agree for non commercial use. Otherwise I hope you are right, but I'm afraid I am. We scored two winters in a row. Could we get a Trifecta? Frankly I'm great with the crap winter 4 Royals WS trade, lol! SER with such a strong Nino, +PDO...that would be funny, lots of busted winter forecasts. But the PV rotting away over AK and no end in sight. It's only Nov 10th....it's only Nov 10th...it's only Nov 10th, I keep telling myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 SER with such a strong Nino, +PDO...that would be funny, lots of busted winter forecasts. But the PV rotting away over AK and no end in sight. It's only Nov 10th....it's only Nov 10th...it's only Nov 10th, I keep telling myself. Here is an interesting read that came across my linkedin page....again it is only November..... https://riskpulse.com/blog/polar-vortex-stable-increasing-strength/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here is an interesting read that came across my linkedin page....again it is only November..... https://riskpulse.com/blog/polar-vortex-stable-increasing-strength/ Thanks Bob! That was a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 SCRIPPS NINO SCRIPPS NINA Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C) NDJ 2015/2016 2.46DJF 2015/2016 2.35JFM 2016 2.07FMA 2016 1.66MAM 2016 1.10AMJ 2016 0.47MJJ 2016 -0.14JJA 2016 -0.69JAS 2016 -1.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Surprised the TNI stayed positive http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data KW helping warm up 1.2 recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Hit the 3.0 mark http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Great read... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47251-my-winter-outlook-2015-16/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 http://www.wsi.com/blog/historic-warmth-across-north-america-possible-in-december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 http://www.wsi.com/blog/historic-warmth-across-north-america-possible-in-decemberAlmost no mechanisms to drive cold air south for longer that 36-48 hrs. November here at TRI(just guessing) is going to be in the top quartile for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 Updated seasonal forecast WSI,nothing much from the thinking here http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/warm-northern-us-winter-expected-especially-early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 WSI is even warmer for December. Week 4 ECMWF is warm surface despite 850 and 500 heights. Perhaps the lack of a cold air connection? Looks cloudy; no really cold nights; days will tip the balance. Enjoy the sun this week, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 WSI is even warmer for December. Week 4 ECMWF is warm surface despite 850 and 500 heights. Perhaps the lack of a cold air connection? Looks cloudy; no really cold nights; days will tip the balance. Enjoy the sun this week, lol! That's what i was wondering as well wk4,getting flooded with warm Pac air.Not sure what the CFS is seeing,thought i'd post the weenie map anyways..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 Who knows,looks like a -EPO and it is pulling down some cold at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 If i knew this would be true,i'd take it and run and not look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2015;sess= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Very little to change in the pattern on the GFS. Zonal. North America flooded with warm Pacific air. Strong Ninos mean business. Very stable pattern appears to continue through mid to late December. Some warm days. Cold rain. High elevations flirt with frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I might add that a warm pattern doesn't mean it can't snow. Just requires threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Weeklies don't look half bad for wk.3-4.Nothing locked in though.Hinting at 30's Christmas day so at least it would feel like Christmas if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Wednesday: Mississippi gets the 15% severe for Sunday December 13! Could we have a Mid South Mauler? Looks like it will get warm enough for some low top action. Wind fields will be plenty strong enough, and with enough turning, for severe. Pre-frontal trough is noted on some surface progs. Such a trough would help maintain a line of strong storms coming out of Texas, maybe even get new stuff going ahead of the line. It is a few days out so I'm not very excited. Still having something to talk about gives some holiday cheer! Thursday update: SPC maintains nearly the exact same 15% outlook area and reasoning for Sunday. Prefrontal trough is still noted, but looks like a cool pool behind it. Pattern would hint straight line winds with squall line. Of course the wind fields are there for rotation, but would have to get a discrete storm or a part of the squall line to get off the cool pool for leading edge. Odds favor straight winds. Maybe a good day for shelfies and football. Friday update: Marginal at best, and SPC is probably right. Looks like a little dry intrusion sneaking across the Deep South over the weekend. Moisture will not improve much after such a good start 60 hours out. Kinematics are still there for low top straight winds, but I'm checking out of severe mode. Time to enjoy a warm and lovely weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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