Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 RaleigjWx's winter forecast linked below. Seems a bit high for snow, but generally agree with temp pattern. I like Jeff's ideas as well. I will roll with slightly above normal temps for DJF. Snowfall will be feast or famine. For NE I think normal to just below. Knoxville and Chatt the same. Somebody could get blanked. If we have a great winter you can thank me for that last statement. I think the Plateau and mountains knock it out of the park. Memphis could do well, but also may be icy. Nashville...well, gonna have to see it to believe it. https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/659103921085022209 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 RaleigjWx's winter forecast linked below. Seems a bit high for snow, but generally agree with temp pattern. I like Jeff's ideas as well. I will roll with slightly above normal temps for DJF. Snowfall will be feast or famine. For NE I think normal to just below. Knoxville and Chatt the same. Somebody could get blanked. If we have a great winter you can thank me for that last statement. I think the Plateau and mountains knock it out of the park. Memphis could do well, but also may be icy. Nashville...well, gonna have to see it to believe it. https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/659103921085022209 Close to what JB is thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 RaleigjWx's winter forecast linked below. Seems a bit high for snow, but generally agree with temp pattern. I like Jeff's ideas as well. I will roll with slightly above normal temps for DJF. Snowfall will be feast or famine. For NE I think normal to just below. Knoxville and Chatt the same. Somebody could get blanked. If we have a great winter you can thank me for that last statement. I think the Plateau and mountains knock it out of the park. Memphis could do well, but also may be icy. Nashville...well, gonna have to see it to believe it. https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/659103921085022209 That was a great read. Prepare for lots of cliff diving and winter cancel posts by late January then, as you said, feast or famine for the rest of the season. One predictor that anecdotally works well for me is whether I currently have a 4x4 vehicle or not. I call it the SVS (Stovepipe Vehicle Screw index). Early 2000s I rocked a little rear wheel drive Nissan truck and slid all over the place (positive phase SVS). Got an AWD Subaru Forrester in 2004 and nary a winter storm until 2010 (-SVS). The day I sold that all wheel drive vehicle it came an ice storm. Went back to non-4x4 and struggled to stay on the road the past few years with decent snow and ice. Finally the pendulum has swung back and I'm in a 4x4 Ram. Due to this negative phase of the SVS, prepare for a long stretch of storm-less winters in the eastern valley because I will not have a reason to utilize it unless I chase storms in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Close to what JB is thinking 2015 2016 Winter Speculation Page 17 General Weather Discussion Talkweather Forums.png Holy, Batman. Thanks for sharing that. I just don't see us at -3 in E TN. Hope I am wrong. Most seasonal forecasts are a crapshoot. I suppose one could subscribe to the warm ocean, cold continent thinking that WxSouth talks about. That is sound philosophy combined with a strong Nino. I just remember the strong Ninos in Knoxville that were blanks. I mean barely a flake. This time the table is set a bit differently...oceans and solar(especially solar) are very different. That ocean heat has to go somewhere. I like the ideas that Raleigh(Jeff as well) has out there. I agree with the thinking that the winter grows colder as it progresses. Last winter, I am growing more convinced was torpedoed by a solar peak in December. The cold snap followed a downturn in solar activity. As for snow this winter, I think this will be one of big storms that are infrequent. More moisture means more chances that a big one could develop. Could we have a crappy winter(temps) with one or two big storm chances? Maybe. That fits strong Nino climo. If we hit on one of those storms, nobody cares about temps. We miss...well then the winter stunk. I will go +.5 to +.1.0 on temps for Knox, Chatt, and TRI averaged together. Snow, especially this year, is almost unpredictable. But if I was forced to guess, 75% of normal for snow. If that nozzle of warm Pacific air gets pointed at TN...it won't be pretty. However, if a ridge holds in the West, then split flow occurs. I just don't see Arctic air being able to hold in the SE. The Sierra Nevadas and Coastal Ranges of California should get plastered. The Apps should get hammered, even GSMNP. The Plateau will have its chances. But my experience is that strong Ninos in the eastern Valley are not good for snow or cold. Memphis may do better than its norm IMO. Will be an interesting winter to see whose ideas work. I really hope I am wrong. Tough not to see those maps and not get a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 That was a great read. Prepare for lots of cliff diving and winter cancel posts by late January then, as you said, feast or famine for the rest of the season. One predictor that anecdotally works well for me is whether I currently have a 4x4 vehicle or not. I call it the SVS (Stovepipe Vehicle Screw index). Early 2000s I rocked a little rear wheel drive Nissan truck and slid all over the place (positive phase SVS). Got an AWD Subaru Forrester in 2004 and nary a winter storm until 2010 (-SVS). The day I sold that all wheel drive vehicle it came an ice storm. Went back to non-4x4 and struggled to stay on the road the past few years with decent snow and ice. Finally the pendulum has swung back and I'm in a 4x4 Ram. Due to this negative phase of the SVS, prepare for a long stretch of storm-less winters in the eastern valley because I will not have a reason to utilize it unless I chase storms in the mountains. Get on Craigslist and sell that baby to someone in the mid-Atlantic forum ASAP. Ha! That is a truck I am assuming? My gardening habit forces me to own a truck, '06 Tacoma 4WD w/ full cab. The minivan just doesn't do well long term with straw or bags of manure in the back! We bought the truck when we had one kiddo. Now we have four and don't have room for everyone in the truck..so only the van works for transportation. But we still have the truck. Might be time to upgrade to a bigger model, but Tundras are like 45-50k. We don't have that kind of cash around the house. Hopefully this winter will break your 4x4 streak! And I agree, great write-up by RaleighWx. I think it stands a great chance of verifying or close to it. Realistic with little hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I need to open a weather trading account. Selling them HDDs in ATL and BNA I could retire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Get on Craigslist and sell that baby to someone in the mid-Atlantic forum ASAP. Ha! That is a truck I am assuming? My gardening habit forces me to own a truck, '06 Tacoma 4WD w/ full cab. The minivan just doesn't do well long term with straw or bags of manure in the back! We bought the truck when we had one kiddo. Now we have four and don't have room for everyone in the truck..so only the van works for transportation. But we still have the truck. Might be time to upgrade to a bigger model, but Tundras are like 45-50k. We don't have that kind of cash around the house. Hopefully this winter will break your 4x4 streak! And I agree, great write-up by RaleighWx. I think it stands a great chance of verifying or close to it. Realistic with little hype. Sorry to derail temporarily, but I hope to never be without a truck again. I expect to keep this Ram 2500 for 15 to 20 years, saved my pennies a long time to get it. I pushed the mini-van to its limits pulling campers, trailers full of compost, lumber and materials hanging out the windows... got it stuck in mud many a time. Never again, 4x4 truck all the way. Luckily my family of four fit in it nicely. On topic, if this El Nino pans out like many are suggesting, it might be great for fall/winter gardens. We may have greens into January. Shoot, the collards might last all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Paul Barys, Channel 3 met here in Chatt, with his winter outlook and I know you will enjoy it! http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Paul Barys, Channel 3 met here in Chatt, with his winter outlook and I know you will enjoy it! http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Are you surprised by so many cold and snow forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Are you surprised by so many cold and snow forecasts? It seems this way every year...Lots of people are optimistically looking for a way to get cold and snow. I can't remember a year other than perhaps 10-11 where the majority were not cold and most missed the cold in that winter! Paul did an interview with us a couple of weeks ago that is going to appear during sweeps week and he indicated he was leaning warmer than he went...I guess he likes the Eurasian snow build? He is an excellent met though this seasonal thing is all a crapshoot. Limited sample size as well as no real way to know how quick this ENSO cycle wanes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Last I saw the Nino was weakening off the South American coast and warming up Central and West. Have to see if that trend continues or if Patricia managed to stir those colder ssts up all the way down to South America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 The eastern Pac especially around the Bajas the warm anomalies are rather impressive and some of the warmest since records taken back since 1850.Though much data is missing from 1850 to the early 1900's and this site hasn't updated since July.But these waters in the eastern Pac up N/America right now are warmer than the Nino of 97 http://ggweather.com/sst.htm You can click on each block on this link to see the anomalies of each section Edit:It's just been updated to Sept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 It seems this way every year...Lots of people are optimistically looking for a way to get cold and snow. I can't remember a year other than perhaps 10-11 where the majority were not cold and most missed the cold in that winter! Paul did an interview with us a couple of weeks ago that is going to appear during sweeps week and he indicated he was leaning warmer than he went...I guess he likes the Eurasian snow build? He is an excellent met though this seasonal thing is all a crapshoot. Limited sample size as well as no real way to know how quick this ENSO cycle wanes... I am surprised honestly by the high number of cold and snowy forecasts. I usually am biased towards cold weather when it comes to winter. The winters have indeed been cooler here in NE TN for a little more than a decade. But those factors aside, experience just tells me that strong Ninos have a tendency to overwhelm everything in the SE. Now, if the Nino fades quickly in early winter or manages to go middle or west in the Pacific basin...I would change my thinking. But as it is right now(and things can and probably will change), just seems like the ENSO signal will trump everything else. I envision lots of fast, zonal flow with low amplitude troughs centered in the middle and east portions of the country. Any cold air will be promptly shifted out with barely 48-72 hrs duration. I can see the ideas that support colder and snowier winters. I just think the higher probability is slightly warmer than normal temps(torchy at times), and below normal snowfall. Cold rain for the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I am surprised honestly by the high number of cold and snowy forecasts. I usually am biased towards cold weather when it comes to winter. The winters have indeed been cooler here in NE TN for a little more than a decade. But those factors aside, experience just tells me that strong Ninos have a tendency to overwhelm everything in the SE. Now, if the Nino fades quickly in early winter or manages to go middle or west in the Pacific basin...I would change my thinking. But as it is right now(and things can and probably will change), just seems like the ENSO signal will trump everything else. I envision lots of fast, zonal flow with low amplitude troughs centered in the middle and east portions of the country. Any cold air will be promptly shifted out with barely 48-72 hrs duration. I can see the ideas that support colder and snowier winters. I just think the higher probability is slightly warmer than normal temps(torchy at times), and below normal snowfall. Cold rain for the valleys. I am right there with you and I recall that this time last year there were allot of cold snowy forecasts. I just hope that everyone is not setting themselves up for a disappointment. I do not know half as much about the weather as the rest of the posting public on here, just enough to know that it has been several years since the TN Valley has been able to cash in on a good winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Here are the Nov anoms for 82-97.From what i seen looking at the weeklies we will be influenced more or less by the SER the first three weeks,into W4 the trough finally shifts east.So on these two strong Ninos,82 would seem to fit best right now,on these Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I need to open a weather trading account. Selling them HDDs in ATL and BNA I could retire! From all the cold forecasts coming out I infer I still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 From all the cold forecasts coming out I infer I still have time. Think the site went down for awhile but i'd agree with the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Maybe i'm wrong but with the warm waters i posted a link above by the Bajas to me is just like last winter we might see more of an abundant of cutoffs once again in the Southwest which dumps into Southern Cali,maybe the southern jet might over whelm the pattern.But either way looking at the analogs the strong Ninos of 82-97 the outcome is the same in Nov,it can be cold or warm in the Valley and winter temps have been shown to be above avg in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Cips goes nuts in Jan in the Valley.Dec. and Feb we are +.5 But we were plus .5 last Thursday's run in Jan..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Every region warmed from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The Canadian Seasonal model.....any port in a storm....and, in other news, nat gas drops to $1.92 this morning at HH....We don't usually torch in strong ENSOs but the main issue will be lack of Arctic air as in 97-98....If that is the case then we will have to cheer for upper low season in late Feb and March....We may finish closer to normal than the plains/midwest but we did not have an average low below 18 in our territory in 82-83 or 97-98 and it was mid March in the latter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The Canadian Seasonal model.....any port in a storm....and, in other news, nat gas drops to $1.92 this morning at HH....We don't usually torch in strong ENSOs but the main issue will be lack of Arctic air as in 97-98....If that is the case then we will have to cheer for upper low season in late Feb and March....We may finish closer to normal than the plains/midwest but we did not have an average low below 18 in our territory in 82-83 or 97-98 and it was mid March in the latter.... How'd you guys do that winter? We had a small event just after christmas then spent the whole winter watching it snow up in the hills. I'm not enthusiastic about that 97/98 analog at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Good observation. Maybe i'm wrong but with the warm waters i posted a link above by the Bajas to me is just like last winter we might see more of an abundant of cutoffs once again in the Southwest which dumps into Southern Cali,maybe the southern jet might over whelm the pattern.But either way looking at the analogs the strong Ninos of 82-97 the outcome is the same in Nov,it can be cold or warm in the Valley and winter temps have been shown to be above avg in the Valley The above pattern could keep Texas cold, but you are right the signal is not strong here. I'm still afraid it'll be really cloudy though. Daytime highs may suffer but lows could stay really mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 New Brazil mean is a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Tri's up to 1.7 (ASO) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml NMME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Meanwhile the Atlantic is showing a warm Southeast signal through December. SSTs are very warm up and down the East Coast, adding heat to the atmo. Colder than normal water is noted up near Greenland; that'll favor positive NAO. New Euro monthlies are warm through at least mid-January. Probably have to wait out the flamethrower until February. Hey, 3 months is better than 30 years. Thanks again to all for the Royal congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Gonna have to disagree with your statement on the warm Atlantic "adding heat" to the atmosphere in regards to warming our temperatures. Look at last January/February, very much above normal SST temps in the GoM and on the East Coast. Frigid interior. January 2014, Western Atlantic well above normal. Frigid interior. January 2012, below normal SST in the GoM and from New York to Florida over to about Bermuda. Blowtorch interior. Same case for 2013 almost, Western Atlantic, GoM were near normal temp wise and we torched. So two of the coldest winter stretches we've had in the past twenty years featured above normal temps in the Atlantic/SE Coast/GoM. While two of the absolute warmest winters of my entire lifetime featured below to normal temps in those same areas. Not saying we won't be warm, but I don't personally see a huge connection to our temps based on the oceanic heat nearby when looking back at warm years/cold years and the SST in our neck of the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The warmest SST anomalies on Earth in January 1985 were along the East Coast/Canadian Maritimes to the SE coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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