El Nino and early Winter Discussion

[stadiumwave]

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts Met Office.png

ERSST.v3b

Climate Prediction Center Monitoring Data ENSO Impacts on the U.S. Previous Events.png

Kinda makes you wonder how much how bad the ERSST.V4 is

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

edit:top is the latest eurosip http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina

It's the UKMET, not EuroSip.

UKMET shows regions 1 & 2 falling fast after new year to below normal during JAN-FEB period....per SST map. Very interesting.

Wonder what the new JAMSTEC will show?

[jaxjagman]

It's the UKMET, not EuroSip.

UKMET shows regions 1 & 2 falling fast after new year to below normal during JAN-FEB period....per SST map. Very interesting.

Wonder what the new JAMSTEC will show?

It's the sip

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/long-range/seasonal-forecast-documentation/eurosip-user-gui-0

[jaxjagman]

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/index.cgix

 

Try this link stadium,the link doesnt work when you click on it on the orginal right correct link for some odd reason you'll get an error message,when you get to the error page or the link doesn't exist on the link take off the "X"  i added this at the end then click enter again,should take you to the page.Then go to the pull up at the bottom left and look for eurosip

[stadiumwave]

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/index.cgix

 

Try this link stadium,the link doesnt work when you click on it on the orginal right correct link for some odd reason you'll get an error message,when you get to the error page or the link doesn't exist on the link take off the "X"  i added this at the end then click enter again,should take you to the page.Then go to the pull up at the bottom left and look for eurosip

My bad bro....lol. I had just looked at the UKMET & graphic was similar. 2ND time I've done this on the forums since June. Very sorry...thanks for link.

[stadiumwave]

Link didn't work but I know Ur correct

[stadiumwave]

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/index.cgix

 

Try this link stadium,the link doesnt work when you click on it on the orginal right correct link for some odd reason you'll get an error message,when you get to the error page or the link doesn't exist on the link take off the "X"  i added this at the end then click enter again,should take you to the page.Then go to the pull up at the bottom left and look for eurosip

 

 

Well...after further research...I think you did post the UKMET.  I matched the plumes & they're the same & your original link is to the UKMET. 

[jaxjagman]

Well...after further research...I think you did post the UKMET.  I matched the plumes & they're the same & your original link is to the UKMET. 

Think it's actually the GPC,so you're probably right

[stadiumwave]

Brazil mean

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts Met Office.png

That's funny that's it's similar to the pattern we are getting ready to experience.

[jaxjagman]

The BOM
(2 weeks)
NINO3 +2.2 +2.4 0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4 +2.0 +2.2 0.2 °C warmer
NINO4 +1.1 +1.2 0.1 °C warmer

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

[nrgjeff]

Evidence for a cool November is increasing, but it does not correlate to the rest of winter. Watching beyond the late week cold front, 11-15 day could be a warmer interlude. Looks like a possible Halloween cold snap. If so the late October pattern would favor a cooler than normal November. However it will be highly dependent on Pacific typhoon activity.

 

El Nino will probably be strong and basin wide, not fading in time to help with cold. Gulf of Alaska will need to be watched closely. Warmth all the way out along the Alleutians will compete. If a Bering Sea ridge develops, a Gulf of Alaska low may be found downstream. Odds still favor a warm winter, but things can change fast like in poker.

[jaxjagman]

Evidence for a cool November is increasing, but it does not correlate to the rest of winter. Watching beyond the late week cold front, 11-15 day could be a warmer interlude. Looks like a possible Halloween cold snap. If so the late October pattern would favor a cooler than normal November. However it will be highly dependent on Pacific typhoon activity.

 

El Nino will probably be strong and basin wide, not fading in time to help with cold. Gulf of Alaska will need to be watched closely. Warmth all the way out along the Alleutians will compete. If a Bering Sea ridge develops, a Gulf of Alaska low may be found downstream. Odds still favor a warm winter, but things can change fast like in poker.

Thanks Jeff.Nice cold front the weeklies hint at just before  Haloween,just in time for severe weather season :)But over all,it does have a cool look  around Halloween and beyond through wk4

[stadiumwave]

Post #104 looks like troubles with the quote feature. 2009 was notorious in that the solar minimum and -AO overwhelmed much of the mild El Nino impacts. Note that Nino is supposed to be cold in the South anyway, but the North got slammed. Strong El Nino regimes like 1997 or 1982 tend to promote such a big warm signal North that it can bleed down into the Mid South. It did those years. 1987 was a cold Nino on the strong side, but 1997 and 1982 are closer fits to the impressive strength this year. Anything can happen, esp with a small sample size, and nobody is disputing alternative outcomes. However the odds favor warm. When millions of dollars are on the line, you know forecasting for a business entity, probability is a much better tool than wishcasting. In the long-run probability based forecasts are the most commercially useful.

Note the Tennessee Valley / Mid South forum has a higher level of courtesy and quality of discussion than other sub-forums. We do not 'quiet' or silence each other. We offer alternative forecasts. Leave it to the weather to see who verifies. In Banter you bet we wishcast, including me! We value open discussion and do not compete or whatever you do. Try to learn our ways.

All that said, new posters don't be shy. Our forum culture should make one feel comfortable at any level. Nobody is rebuked here for a forecast. We just share reasoning. Also AmWx members from the Mid South outside of Tennessee, and from North Alabama and North Georgia please jump in. We often share the same weather pattern.

Then your services are not needed....all we need is CPC .  All their forecasts are pretty much climo forecasts.  It's La Nina winters like 2010-11 that end of making a climo forecast look insane.  I would also assume if people are making decisions based on those forecasts they would appreciate a little bit more effort than a strict climo forecasts.  My 12yr old son can make a climo forecast.

[stadiumwave]

Brazil mean

 

 

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts Met Office.png

 

 

Could you provide a link to the Brazilian model? Thanks....google has not been my friend.

[John1122]

Evidence for a cool November is increasing, but it does not correlate to the rest of winter. Watching beyond the late week cold front, 11-15 day could be a warmer interlude. Looks like a possible Halloween cold snap. If so the late October pattern would favor a cooler than normal November. However it will be highly dependent on Pacific typhoon activity.

 

El Nino will probably be strong and basin wide, not fading in time to help with cold. Gulf of Alaska will need to be watched closely. Warmth all the way out along the Alleutians will compete. If a Bering Sea ridge develops, a Gulf of Alaska low may be found downstream. Odds still favor a warm winter, but things can change fast like in poker.

 

I disagree about November as it relates to winter, I looked over the coolest November's  in Knoxville last year from 1966-2014, when we had such a cold November. All of them were followed by significant winter weather events in December, January, or February, at least for me. This past February delivered on that in a big way once again. If I recall correctly, it was something like any November with an average temp cooler than 45 in Knoxville ended up producing something major in at least East Tennessee, if not the entire Valley. 

 

1967 Nov temp was 43.1 in Knoxville. The winter of 1967-68 was massive across the Valley. It's a top 5-10 snowy winter of all time for most Tennessee cities.  From January 1st until January 16th that year, my grandpa recorded 1 day above 40 degrees for the high. Knoxville recorded a lot of rain during that time. However from the Plateau and west the 10-15th saw 6-10 inches of snow fall, on top of some ice that had came to the Plateau on the 9th and 10th. March of 1968 was also very snowy in especially Western Valley areas.

 

1968 Nov temp was also 43 in Knoxville. We had 3 inches of snow on December 4th and a cold Christmas with temps of 28 and 17 for the high and low in the 25th. In February parts of Northern Tennessee and Southern Kentucky got 10-16 inches of snow from a storm. We had 12 inches on the 15th and 16th in 1969 here and Crossville records 1.07 precip with a high of 33 and a low of 29, two cities in Northern Middle set daily snowfall records.

 

1969 Nov temp was once again 43 in Knoxville.  December of 69 is one for the record books. Nashville had 3 inches of snow on Christmas day, Crossville had 8 inches on Christmas day, we had 8 inches, Knox recorded 7 inches. January of 1970 was bitter cold, with multiple sub zero outbreaks. The temp here didn't get above 12 degrees for 4 straight days and the lows were below 0 every day, with a low of -14. Later in the month two more days with highs in the 10s and lows of around -5 happened. There was also several snowy days that month. The cold returned in Feb 70 with more sub-zero weather and more snow. There was even a low 10s low on March 16th that year.

 

There a bunch of NR on the site I use for monthly means in the later 1970s.

 

The next November lower than 45 for the mean is 1984, at 44.9. We all know what significant winter weather happened valley wide in January 1985.

 

After that it's 1995, at 42.3. January-February of 1996 was one of the most potent times for snowfall and cold across most of the Valley region.

 

1996 was 44.1 and is probably the least harsh winter of the bunch here Still, December had a stretch of cold weather with highs in the 10s one of the days, with snow showers blowing around for 3 days in a row. January 1997 had several days here with highs in the 10s and lows of 0 and some snow events. It also had some severe weather thrown in for good measure. 

 

1997  was 43.1 and was also the other Nino of similar magnitude. Most of the Valley didn't do well, but the Plateau, Southern Ky, NE Tennessee and SW Va were buried in the two big snow storms in 98. As pointed out earlier, December of 1997 was also pretty snowy here, with snow every day from the day after Christmas til New Years.

 

The next year below 45 was last year, at 41.8. We also all know the story of how brutal it was last winter across most of the area.

 

While it can still be very wintry with a mean above 45 in Knoxville in November, when it's below, someone is getting some form of significant winter weather in the region.

[jaxjagman]

Could you provide a link to the Brazilian model? Thanks....google has not been my friend.

http://clima1.cptec.inpe.br/gpc/pt

[nrgjeff]

Post #104 looks like troubles with the quote feature. 2009 was notorious in that the solar minimum and -AO overwhelmed much of the mild El Nino impacts. Note that Nino is supposed to be cold in the South anyway, but the North got slammed. Strong El Nino regimes like 1997 or 1982 tend to promote such a big warm signal North that it can bleed down into the Mid South. It did those years. 1987 was a cold Nino on the strong side, but 1997 and 1982 are closer fits to the impressive strength this year. Anything can happen, esp with a small sample size, and nobody is disputing alternative outcomes. However the odds favor warm. When millions of dollars are on the line, you know forecasting for a business entity, probability is a much better tool than wishcasting. In the long-run probability based forecasts are the most commercially useful.

Then your services are not needed....all we need is CPC .  All their forecasts are pretty much climo forecasts.  It's La Nina winters like 2010-11 that end of making a climo forecast look insane.  I would also assume if people are making decisions based on those forecasts they would appreciate a little bit more effort than a strict climo forecasts.  My 12yr old son can make a climo forecast.

 

Probability based forecasting is not climo. We use several different factors to determine odds of a temperature regime. You were not here but I was cold 2010-11. Now please do your best and try to catch up!

 

In other news, this winter may be highly elevation dependent. Per John's posts the available moisture could spell good snow for the Plateau and Apps. Ray's Wx forecast posted in Mountains thread, Southeast Forum, notes the elevation issue. Snow could be sig above mountains, but crap out valleys.

 

Sugar just built a high-speed lift to go with the new long run they added last year. Yes! 

[jaxjagman]

WWB west of the dateline ongoing but not much impact into 3.4,winds start to turn more from the S around 173w.GOA has taking some gains the last 7 days per tidbits

[jaxjagman]

IRI/CPC Mid month

 

[jaxjagman]

JAMSTEC

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

http://www.weathervue.net/winter-forecast-15-16.html

 

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/

[nrgjeff]

I have raised my probability of a mild winter +1 or greater from just over 1/2 to now 2/3. Climo is just over 1/3 of course with near normal and cold the other two. Though I'm fairly confident in warm, I favor just slightly above normal temps. Daytime highs may take a beating on cloudy days, but the same clouds should hold back extremes at night.

 

Pacific chart shows a +PDO which is normally a cold signal. However the warmth out by the Aleutian Islands is a warm signal. El Nino East is a warm signal, counted twice at this strength. A 3/4 warm is dialed back toward 2/3 due to uncertainty around AO and Eurasian snow/surface pressure anomalies. Also note that a +PDO has never overridden a strong Nino for a warm winter, but the sample size is small.

 

All that said, the Plateau and Mountains could still get good snow out of a moist and active subtropical jet. Perhaps when Chatty and Knox are 38 and 36 cold rain, snow is falling on the Plateau and in the mountains. TRI 34 and wet snow? Nashville does not look good, but a way to glory might be a cutter that drags enough cold air down. I-75 still whiffs in that scenario. Memphis gets first crack at arctic fronts from the Plains so anything can happen there. February fade of Nino could open the door in the Eastern Tennessee Valley. Still I'm afraid mostly rain at lower elevations.

 

[jaxjagman]

I have raised my probability of a mild winter +1 or greater from just over 1/2 to now 2/3. Climo is just over 1/3 of course with near normal and cold the other two. Though I'm fairly confident in warm, I favor just slightly above normal temps. Daytime highs may take a beating on cloudy days, but the same clouds should hold back extremes at night.

 

Pacific chart shows a +PDO which is normally a cold signal. However the warmth out by the Aleutian Islands is a warm signal. El Nino East is a warm signal, counted twice at this strength. A 3/4 warm is dialed back toward 2/3 due to uncertainty around AO and Eurasian snow/surface pressure anomalies. Also note that a +PDO has never overridden a strong Nino for a warm winter, but the sample size is small.

 

All that said, the Plateau and Mountains could still get good snow out of a moist and active subtropical jet. Perhaps when Chatty and Knox are 38 and 36 cold rain, snow is falling on the Plateau and in the mountains. TRI 34 and wet snow? Nashville does not look good, but a way to glory might be a cutter that drags enough cold air down. I-75 still whiffs in that scenario. Memphis gets first crack at arctic fronts from the Plains so anything can happen there. February fade of Nino could open the door in the Eastern Tennessee Valley. Still I'm afraid mostly rain at lower elevations.

 

Looks like your forecast Jeff for the Valley

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-outlook-reveals-what-conditions-are-favored

[jaxjagman]

Goes latest

El Nino 2015.png

Latest ssh's

 

[jaxjagman]

More goes

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Thanks. I'm thinking even warmer, but not much. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it is what it is. Can you see the SST chart? My browser (work) won't show it and it is my own chart, lol!

 

Looks like your forecast Jeff for the Valley

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-outlook-reveals-what-conditions-are-favored

 

[jaxjagman]

Thanks. I'm thinking even warmer, but not much. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it is what it is. Can you see the SST chart? My browser (work) won't show it and it is my own chart, lol!

Access denied. You must log in to view this page.

[packbacker]

Thanks. I'm thinking even warmer, but not much. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it is what it is. Can you see the SST chart? My browser (work) won't show it and it is my own chart, lol!

 

Don't you think 82 is a better match from a pure ENSO region for what we are seeing now? Not considering the NE Pac or the atlantic but pure ENSO regions.

 

Even the atlantic isn't that far off, granted we are much warmer in the sw atlantic but it has the cold pool in the northern atlantic.

[nrgjeff]

1997 is a better match in the Nino regions. 1997 is also a better Pacific Basin match. The colder 1982 is still a very good El Nino match. Interestingly the 1997 PDO was higher (yup colder signal) but 1997-98 was warmer than 1982-83. 2015 PDO is closer to that of 1997 but I won't use a cold signal to justify a warm forecast. The road to the cooler Tenn 1982-3 solution might include the Nino fade. Otherwise the trend is my friend. Until data matches that model fade, will assume too little too late. Keeping warm, but hoping for snow.

[JoMo]

Don't you think 82 is a better match from a pure ENSO region for what we are seeing now? Not considering the NE Pac or the atlantic but pure ENSO regions.

 

Even the atlantic isn't that far off, granted we are much warmer in the sw atlantic but it has the cold pool in the northern atlantic.

 

From a pure ENSO standpoint "right now", 82 is the better match. 97 was much much warmer farther east. The better overall  +/- ocean anomaly match for the Pacific and Atlantic was 2014, only this year it's warmer.'97 isn't too bad either, but the Atlantic was almost the exact opposite of this year.

[nrgjeff]

Howdy JoMo! Please visit us more often. We will be looking upstream in your region most of the winter, likely living vicariously if you get the snow goods. You guys have a great sub-region thread going over there. You'll enjoy the same professional and courteous tone over here.

 

Record breaking Hurricane Patricia gives testimony to the deep heat content in the eastern Pacific, all the way up the West Coast of Mexico. Now it is Patricia trying to redistribute that energy. Over winter it may translate into classic El Nino East forcing over much of the US esp North. Euro weekly charts have a stout Southeast Canada ridge weeks 3-4. Winter preview?

 

At times that ridge could expand over much of the East. Other times the tap out of Texas, with below normal Texas heights, keeps it cloudy and unsettled here. Euro and CFS monthly charts have good agreement. They both are locked in on the North Pacific. Both have tropical forcing overwhelming it, which makes sense from the physics. Above normal SSTs north in winter are still cold. Heat drives this machine and El Nino East is a beast.