El Nino and early Winter Discussion

[jaxjagman]

Some anomalies with the ONI with the tri's (JJA) 1.2 last update

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Thought i posted the link last night,

 

This is a catalog of nationwide average "winter" temperature and precipitation anomalies for previous El Niño and La Niña events.  It also has the average for all events, weak events, moderate events, strong and very strong events and the wide range of the individual seasons that went into making up each of the averages.

 

It cannot be stressed strongly enough that this is a climatological analysis and not a forecasting tool.  This is especially true for the averages of different strength events which are made up of what are a very broad range of conditions; some that are decidedly atypical.

 

http://ggweather.com/enso2014/

[jaxjagman]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[jaxjagman]

 

Latest Euro

[jaxjagman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml

[jaxjagman]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[nrgjeff]

JAMSTEC out of Japan posted a winter ensemble update. Dated 1 Sept. but seems to be just released. It is cold and snowy Tennessee Valley and Mid South. Model has a history of being too bullish so I'm not biting. Apparently it favors a lot of blocking with an active Nino subtropical jet. Shows lots of rain Deep South with winter precip north edge Tennessee Valley and Mid South. Again I favor tropical forcing (mild) over blocking, but verbatim the JAMSTEC model is great winter porn.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

JAMSTEC out of Japan posted a winter ensemble update. Dated 1 Sept. but seems to be just released. It is cold and snowy Tennessee Valley and Mid South. Model has a history of being too bullish so I'm not biting. Apparently it favors a lot of blocking with an active Nino subtropical jet. Shows lots of rain Deep South with winter precip north edge Tennessee Valley and Mid South. Again I favor tropical forcing (mild) over blocking, but verbatim the JAMSTEC model is great winter porn.

 

 

The seasonal forecast from Jamstec thus far since they downgraded from 27 to 9 members in March hasn't been very good.

[jaxjagman]

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-2015-2016-temperature-forecast-december-january-february

[jaxjagman]

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

 

 

IRI

[jaxjagman]

Region 1+2 seems to be much warmer than what tidbits show.KW seems to be really warming it up

 

[mrgolf]

Jaxjagman, do you think the warmest waters just west of S America will shift west and what actually will cause that? It's better to have it warmer over 3.4 region

[jaxjagman]

Nino 3 up to 4.1

[jaxjagman]

 

2015 ANOMOLIES and the 1997 CLIMO

[jaxjagman]

Latest Jason -2

[jaxjagman]

 

SST's have been building around the galapagos lately,strongest winds around the date line maybe a change upcoming towards the end of the month.Possibly even some of the strongest wind anomolies since the 2nd week of July east of the dateline

 

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Jaxjagman, do you think the warmest waters just west of S America will shift west and what actually will cause that? It's better to have it warmer over 3.4 region

 

For cold and snow one would favor the warmest anomalies over 3.4 with 1-2 closer to normal - a west-based or Modoki El Nino. Appears this year is east-based and strong. Consensus is mild winter but still unsettled Deep South. Our region is in between.

 

I'm leaning mild due to the warm water on the Southeast coast. However mild does not shut the door on a big snow event. Always hope in the South, right? Seriously, John posted some revealing snow stats. Mild and snow are not mutually exclusive. Just ask someone in Denver, normal January high same as ours.

 

Regarding a shift to west-based, anything is possible. Kelvin wave evolution could promote such a shift. However the big warmth east is so dominant that I think inertia favors status quo.

[Carvers Gap]

For cold and snow one would favor the warmest anomalies over 3.4 with 1-2 closer to normal - a west-based or Modoki El Nino. Appears this year is east-based and strong. Consensus is mild winter but still unsettled Deep South. Our region is in between.

I'm leaning mild due to the warm water on the Southeast coast. However mild does not shut the door on a big snow event. Always hope in the South, right? Seriously, John posted some revealing snow stats. Mild and snow are not mutually exclusive. Just ask someone in Denver, normal January high same as ours.

Regarding a shift to west-based, anything is possible. Kelvin wave evolution could promote such a shift. However the big warmth east is so dominant that I think inertia favors status quo.

Thanks, Jeff!

John's personal stats are money. However, I am telling you our local snow totals kept by MRX have (I can literally think of very few PC terms here) been "adjusted." They are simply inaccurate or wrong. Also, Ninos have produced some great elevation dependent snows. I think that skews the Plateau vs the Valley. More often than not Knoxville south is well below for snow in regards to intermediate and strong Ninos. We should be wary of comparing the current climate to older data sets. No matter our beliefs, the climate is not the same as then. During the 90s, Knoxville was blanked downtown during multiple years. Basically, minus a couple of years, it was a Nino decade.

For sure it can snow during mild winters...but generally here we need (as you know) strong Atlantic blocking. Raging Ninos are the death of winters here if you like prolonged cold and snowy winters. Big snows can and do happen which can skew averages.

I do have one hope...the leaves are way ahead of schedule here. That is not always a good indicator. It may just be the very dry September promoting this. Also, the past few winters seem to have been cold even when indicators seemed otherwise. If we go cold this winter, it will be tough to deny that our winters are cooling. Personally, I think the winter is warm with low snow totals. However, I am less convinced than I was a month ago. If the ENSO tanks mid-winter...we could be in business.

[jaxjagman]

Coral Reef Watch Satellite 50 km Short Term Nighttime SST Trends over the Past 21 Days.png

 

SST's have been building around the galapagos lately,strongest winds around the date line maybe a change upcoming towards the end of the month.Possibly even some of the strongest wind anomolies since the 2nd week of July east of the dateline

 

u.anom.30.5S 5N.gif 798×899 .png

 

Still seeing a nice WWB towards the end of the month

 

 

Last 21 days trend there is still warming west of the dateline

 

 

[John1122]

Possibly related to the suddenly lowered snow amounts, missing data, etc etc. I saw that NOAA, for whatever reason, has retroactively adjusted recorded temperatures before the 1990s or so, downward, and raised them since then. This could also explain missing snow data and lowered snow averages that have been so dramatic since 1990, and the changed charts we see today. Some say it's politically motivated, but I don't really care about the reason. I just wonder how they can scientifically justify doing it?

[jaxjagman]

Think it's safe to say we won't use the 2009-10 as an anolog to compare this Nino,other than the N/Atlantic 

 

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Possibly related to the suddenly lowered snow amounts, missing data, etc etc. I saw that NOAA, for whatever reason, has retroactively adjusted recorded temperatures before the 1990s or so, downward, and raised them since then. This could also explain missing snow data and lowered snow averages that have been so dramatic since 1990, and the changed charts we see today. Some say it's politically motivated, but I don't really care about the reason. I just wonder how they can scientifically justify doing it?

There is alot of misconception from various sites when you google,i agree with you.Carver as well

[jaxjagman]

Think this setup this winter is prime for some ice storms much more than snow in the Tn Valley.Maybe i'm being some what precipitous,but the warmth in Canada what seems to be modeled should bring more cold air in the lower levels and when the STJ kicks in and when troughs dig down we could basically be looking at some decent WAA by the warm SST'S in the GOM right now

[weathertree4u]

Think this setup this winter is prime for some ice storms much more than snow in the Tn Valley.Maybe i'm being some what precipitous,but the warmth in Canada what seems to be modeled should bring more cold air in the lower levels and when the STJ kicks in and when troughs dig down we could basically be looking at some decent WAA by the warm SST'S in the GOM right now

 

I wonder if there were any ice storms in the Winters that some are using as analogs? I know it has been a while since we have had one.

[jaxjagman]

I wonder if there were any ice storms in the Winters that some are using as analogs? I know it has been a while since we have had one.

Sure there is,this site has a good bit of datahttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/sd/sd.html

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Another decent WWB being modeled the 1st week of Oct

[jaxjagman]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

Issued on 29 September 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, maintaining a strong El Niño that is likely to persist into early 2016. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by well over 1 °C, and at levels not seen since the 1997–98 event. In the atmosphere, tropical cloudiness has shifted east, trade winds have been consistently weaker than normal, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is strongly negative.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to peak towards the end of 2015. Typically, El Niño is strongest during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a positive phase, having exceeded the +0.4 °C threshold for the past 8 weeks. Recent values of the IOD index have been at levels not seen since the strong 2006 positive IOD event. Conversely, the Indian Ocean remains very warm on the broader scale.
Four out of five international models suggest the 2015 positive IOD event will persist until November, when it typically breaks down due to monsoon development.
El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring and summer temperatures for southern and eastern Australia. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast. However, sea surface temperatures across the whole Indian Ocean basin have been at record warm levels, and appear to be off-setting the influence of these two climate drivers in some areas.

[jaxjagman]

CANSIPS updated