Met1985 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 As Marietta stated great info and discussion. Carver I think elevation will play a significant roll this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Some more totals dating back to 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I agree, great discussion guys. No matter how it turns out, will be fascinating to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Thanks for posting the snow totals, very neat to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Some more totals dating back to 1950 atl.pngcha.pngjc.pngknox.pngnash.pngmem.png Great graphs, but they are suspect - mine included. I have my own opinions, but I am troubled with the apparent "loss" of data or under measurement of snow. No way that JC graph is correct for the past decade. I think there should be more normal or above years. Tnweathernut, you live there so you have the final word. They look way too low since 2001. I watched the airport lowball an event last winter. And I know people who live near the airport who dispute their measurements. So, take their graphs with a grain of salt. Even though he is at elevation, John1122 has far better records. I rely on his more than those. No knock on you, Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 What a refreshing morning, dry air, low DPs and cool. Fall/Winters first shot across the bow here in Marietta. I'm loving it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Great graphs, but they are suspect - mine included. I have my own opinions, but I am troubled with the apparent "loss" of data or under measurement of snow. No way that JC graph is correct for the past decade. I think there should be more normal or above years. Tnweathernut, you live there so you have the final word. They look way too low since 2001. I watched the airport lowball an event last winter. And I know people who live near the airport who dispute their measurements. So, take their graphs with a grain os salt. Even though he is at elevation, John1122 has far better records. I rely on his more than those. No knock on you, Jax. The more you mention it ,it does look suspect,surprised coming from NOAA.But i went to the historical records for Nashville from the data it shows 1959-60 season as being the historic season with 38.5",so those departures on from that year alone would be off.Thanks for bringing that up.http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=otherrecords Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Great graphs, but they are suspect - mine included. I have my own opinions, but I am troubled with the apparent "loss" of data or under measurement of snow. No way that JC graph is correct for the past decade. I think there should be more normal or above years. Tnweathernut, you live there so you have the final word. They look way too low since 2001. I watched the airport lowball an event last winter. And I know people who live near the airport who dispute their measurements. So, take their graphs with a grain os salt. Even though he is at elevation, John1122 has far better records. I rely on his more than those. No knock on you, Jax. I'm baffled by the lack of data by NWS offices. I was looking at monthly historical snow totals for Crossville the other day and there were a ton of "NR" (no record) listed, almost all of them from 1990-current. This is also a problem, as has been mentioned, with MRX. I've not checked Nashville by individual month, but I'll try later tonight, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I'm baffled by the lack of data by NWS offices. I was looking at monthly historical snow totals for Crossville the other day and there were a ton of "NR" (no record) listed, almost all of them from 1990-current. This is also a problem, as has been mentioned, with MRX. I've not checked Nashville by individual month, but I'll try later tonight, What gets even crazier is that I can find snow totals on graphs(for a certain time period), and the graphs were made several years ago. I will look at the same time frame on a more recent graphic or data entry(for the same time period) and the date will be missing or the totals lowered. Not to derail the thread, but those data sets need to be accurate and present or the historical record is skewed. But in terms of talking about the upcoming winter, it is possible that this winter may be its own analog. So, I hope they can find a way to store the data accurately and for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Maybe Hillary got ahold of the MRX TRI snow data? I'm joking but really it is baffling at how all that data is missing. You would think in the technology era we live in (since the late 1990's that it would be impossible to accidentally lose the data). It just doesn't make any sense. Okay back to this winter. I'm personally excited for another El Niño winter. I'm excited because I like the possibility of bigger storms even though there will be fewer opportunities to score. I'm a person that likes big events weather wise. I want heavy rain, heavy snow/blizzards, lots of lightning, strong winds, etc. In el Niños we have the chance to get fewer and bigger events. With La Niñas we normally get nickeled and dimed. But with strong el Niños we have a strong chance of getting nothing. I'm willing to take that chance if it means having a better opportunity at a big storm. It may be a winter with the majority of storms having a cold rain (32-40 degrees). The mountains may have a slamming winter this year. I think the big key to this winter since we have a +ENSO and a strongly +PNA will be the NAO and AO. We will have to have the NAO/AO be negative and sometimes strongly negative to have a chance for a cooler than normal winter since the El Niño is most likely going to be a (2+) strong one. If those indices are positive then we will probably torch for a significant period of time. I think it is way too early to decide if it will be a winter long torch, roller coaster of hot/ cold, or a 09/10 type winter. WeatherBell posted their winter outlook (it is in the Southeast Forum) and it has 3-5 degrees below normal and 200% above normal snowfall. I think that is absurd to put out an outlook like that this early. I'm sure WeatherBell is trying to get more traffic to their website. There is no way you can make that claim accurately this early into the game. If last year taught me anything it is to be extremely skeptical of early outlooks and correlations (Siberian snow cover and -AO for example). Griteater made a nice post in the SE forum about summer -AO correlating to a -AO winter. Even with the good analysis he provided I'm still skeptical as too whether that would be the case this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 One thing that worked last year and had for almost every year with records was that cold Novembers led to significant winter weather at some point the following January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Few days old http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf This weeks ENSO https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific Thought i posted this last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 One thing I have not noticed...the leaves here are changing early. Might be because it has been hotter than forty hells. But my yard has leaves in it every day now. The maples are turning red. Sycamores are turning slightly yellow. Dogwoods are red. Not huge changes by any means, but they are far less green than a couple of weeks ago. A little more than the usual late summer fried look. Saw a Tweet that the Apps in northern VA are beginning to show color on the ridge lines. They must know Godzilla is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 I read another story on the early foilage but can't find it for anything,if i find it i'll post it http://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Seeing leaves changing and blowing around here too, but it seems like every year at this time a few things are turning yellow and red and a few more are falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Seeing leaves changing and blowing around here too, but it seems like every year at this time a few things are turning yellow and red and a few more are falling. I know what you mean. It could just be late summer...things definitely begin to turn then. However, my crape myrtle in my back yard bloomed one month early this year. edit: Just checked a few sites up and down the eastern seaboard...foliage looks to be on track for normal peak. However, some sites where drought had persisted noted that foliage has a change some due to the stress on trees. In other words, trees "decide" to shut it down early to save energy. The early season drought might be causing this. I am no biologist so take that for what its worth...two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 First signs of -50 for the upcoming winter at 10hpa being forecasted,starting to wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 The ONI is out for(JJA) @1.2 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 The MEI this update rose to 2.37,which would fall in line 2nd of the strongest ElNinos since 1950 during this time frame. The ONI being shown at 1.2 would rank 3rd following the 87-97 Nino which read 1.4 for (JJA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whsQbIwWjBo#action=share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 JB's newest forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Oh wow I should get an HDD trading account. If I sell to JB I may be able to retire early! I'm still looking for a mild and unfortunately cloudy winter across the Mid South and Tenn Valley. However latest ENSO forecasts and Euro monthly charts hint at an early but sharp Nino peak and perhaps fade into late winter. That could set up February snow again. Could we go three years in a row? My main concern is avoiding clinical depression Columbus Day through Martin Luther King Day. Euro and CFS monthlies are incredibly cloudy. Storm chasing would make me less gloomy though. Late winter precipitation maxima are in the Deep South, but that does not shut the door on snow up here. Keep in mind snow carries much less liquid than the rain farther south. John's snow and Jeff's mild are not mutually exclusive forecasts. Maybe both? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 The TNI for August came out today and by the looks June and July has been adjusted from the last update Last Month This Month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 Winter Precip from past Ninos https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%B1o-impacts-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/winter-preview-el-nino-contributes-to-a-tale-of-two-seasons/56531/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 No denying it now. The leaves here are beginning to change. Maples in my neighborhood are pretty red as are dogwoods. I still can't decide if they are early, but I think they are a week or two early. Does not mean they will peak early. I also think the leaves are going to see a quick peak and be gone. May be due to dry conditions. IDK... But pretty significant changes here this week. Leaves should peak before or by the third week in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 Latest Nino update.Still looking like a possible LaNina next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 13, 2015 Author Share Posted September 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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