El Nino and early Winter Discussion

[jaxjagman]

Post away

[jaxjagman]

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

[jaxjagman]

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/elnino2015/index.html

[John1122]

A big difference in the 1997 event that I see now is the difference in temps in the Gulf of Alaska. If we develop that huge cold pool there like 1997, it will probably not be good for winter prospects. But if we keep the warm pool, that should promote high pressure in that area, which shunts cold into the Eastern US.

[griteater]

Mr. Bob says it will be warm 

[LithiaWx]

Actually, just about everything I look at for you would yield a colder than normal and rather wet winter for you. :-) Thanks for sharing those t-storm pictures btw, those were awesome!

So, as I started to say in the summer thread. my part of the southeast should be abnormally wet with lots of southern systems skirting along the gulf coast. But all of that pacific moisture usually brings, realtivly warm for winter, air. Having the cold meet up with what should be copious amounts of moisture I think will be a tough combo to get together at least for NW GA.

You guys up a bit farther north tend to be drier than normal in Nino years but I think you guys could get a big daddy this year as I really think we see sysytem after system this winter, more than one will come far enough north to nail you guys. I hate to say somebody is due but you guys really are. I think at least one big sysytem will meet up with enough cold air where more of you guys reside. Down here it's a lot harder but anything is possible.

I will say I'm not seeing the blocking that a few are saying we should watch out for. It's anecdotal for me but I've seen and heard blocking and strong ninos don't reall have much of a correlation. One thing is for sure! Summers last breath isn't far and she doesn't have much left in her. Late summer is upon us and winter is coming. We all know despite what the odds favor the weather will do what it's going to do and sometimes it doesn't behave like it "should" Lets all sit back and watch the wonders unfold!

[jaxjagman]

1982-83 El Nino in our parts of the Valley wasn't much fun in DJF.

Christmas in 82' was the warmest on record for Dec 25th.72 for the high and 64 low.That's just not Christmas to me being that warm

1.5" of sn for the winter,wet Dec and dry Jan and Feb

[jaxjagman]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/?n=elnino_winter_study

 

This was written in 2012 from the NWS @Hunstville,wish it had all the Valley

[tnweathernut]

So, as I started to say in the summer thread. my part of the southeast should be abnormally wet with lots of southern systems skirting along the gulf coast. But all of that pacific moisture usually brings, realtivly warm for winter, air. Having the cold meet up with what should be copious amounts of moisture I think will be a tough combo to get together at least for NW GA.

You guys up a bit farther north tend to be drier than normal in Nino years but I think you guys could get a big daddy this year as I really think we see sysytem after system this winter, more than one will come far enough north to nail you guys. I hate to say somebody is due but you guys really are. I think at least one big sysytem will meet up with enough cold air where more of you guys reside. Down here it's a lot harder but anything is possible.

I will say I'm not seeing the blocking that a few are saying we should watch out for. It's anecdotal for me but I've seen and heard blocking and strong ninos don't reall have much of a correlation. One thing is for sure! Summers last breath isn't far and she doesn't have much left in her. Late summer is upon us and winter is coming. We all know despite what the odds favor the weather will do what it's going to do and sometimes it doesn't behave like it "should" Lets all sit back and watch the wonders unfold!

We pretty much agree on many things.  That said, several things make me cautious about people who actually issue winter forecasts this early.  I have never liked broad-brushing things just because certain events have yielded (X) in the past.  This strengthening El Nino is a good example of what I am talking about.  

 

While true that strong El Nino's can play havoc on the atmosphere and almost overwhelm at times, there really isn't a large sample set to run with (4 events or so), plus does the PDO warmth hold on or fizzle as we head into winter?  Give me a strong, but weakening El Nino in January, combined with a +PDO and I will take my chances, even for areas to the south of me. (how far south is a toss up EVERY winter, not just during a strong El Nino)  As for blocking on the Atlantic side?  What is that.............?  Not like we ever see that anymore.  lol

[jaxjagman]

I'm still just as much intrigued by what will happen after the seemingly strong El Nino cools and possibly we go into La Nina.Statics say we very well could.After the the strong El Nino in 97-98 we went into La Nina for a stretch for almost three consecutive years.

 

We had some violent weather during either way even during El Nino in 1998,the Super Tuesday outbreak Feb 5-6

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak

 

April 15-16 outbreak

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_15%E2%80%9316,_1998_tornado_outbreak

 

But as ENSO cools the Valley percentages really ramp up

 

 

 

[Mr Bob]

Mr. Bob says it will be warm 

It is more a wish than anything else...I am too old for cold though I still like snow.

 

Seriously, though, the sample size is small so keying on those two seasons won't be perfect. It would just seem as much warm water as there is everywhere, that it would be difficult for that not to impact the pattern. But first we have to keep the strong El Nino before that happens...it is only August so all is idle speculation.

[jaxjagman]

 

We are starting the transition into the positive phase of the TNI

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data

 

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC HAS UPDATED!!! I'm pleasantly surprised:

DJF Temp Anomalies




DJF SST's



**Keeps GOA warmer than both it's June & July updates.  Interesting!!

DJF PRECIP




NINO peaks at the end of Sept...then begins weakening. Earlier peak...interesting 


 

[nrgjeff]

I'm afraid this week is a preview of a dreary winter. Regardless of temperature, Tennessee Valley can expect dreary cloudy in El Nino. Even if precip runs below normal, more Deep South, that southern jet keeps the clouds coming through. Frankly I hope mega warm overwhelms everything and that Midwest ridge can push out Tenn Valley clouds. Such an outcome would be horrible for snow, but help me save money on coffee, lol! There is always February for a last minute snow.

[LithiaWx]

I'm afraid this week is a preview of a dreary winter. Regardless of temperature, Tennessee Valley can expect dreary cloudy in El Nino. Even if precip runs below normal, more Deep South, that southern jet keeps the clouds coming through. Frankly I hope mega warm overwhelms everything and that Midwest ridge can push out Tenn Valley clouds. Such an outcome would be horrible for snow, but help me save money on coffee, lol! There is always February for a last minute snow.

Damn man... My family keeps asking me what winter will end up like and is is pretty much what I've said. Lots of storms but not a lot of cold to go with it,

[jaxjagman]

https://www.facebook.com/notes/1111862635510457/

 

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[LithiaWx]

https://www.facebook.com/notes/1111862635510457/

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If that wasn't a giant can of hype I'm not sure what is. Historic, 1800's, ect.. I think he is very talented but his forecasts for the past several years have all been cold and stormy. I'm not sure he's capable of posting a winter forecast that isn't cold and stormy.

[packbacker]

If that wasn't a giant can of hype I'm not sure what is. Historic, 1800's, ect.. I think he is very talented but his forecasts for the past several years have all been cold and stormy. I'm not sure he's capable of posting a winter forecast that isn't cold and stormy.

He's not wrong yet. Last 2 winters have been fairly cold/snowy, although maybe not for your specific backyard.

[nrgjeff]

Often the PDO is positive in an El Nino regime. In fact with strong El Ninos, PDO is almost always positive. The entire Pacific Basin is warm during strong Ninos. Guess what: Those winters are blowtorch. One must consider a bigger sample size of strong Nino +PDO and avoid the trap of considering +PDO alone. Regardless of anomaly, keep absolute temperatures in mind. Tropical water is much warmer than North Pacific water; therefore, the Tropical Pacific drives the thermodynamic bus. Strong El Nino is warm winter with high correlation.

 

The 1800s are off the table until we can achieve a Dalton sunspot minimum. Right now we are at the peak in the cycle, so still years away from the next minimum. Granted the peak is weak; therefore, the minimum could be impactful. However several questions still need to be answered. Will the minimum last as long as Dalton? Will other natural cycles coincide, or cancel out? Will we have a massive volcano erupt? What about human effects? While we cannot discuss AGW outside that sub-forum, but we can add it to the list of uncertainty in decadal forecasting. And forget about the Maunder minimum. We will never know in our lifetimes.

 

Back to 2015: We also have warm SST anomalies off the Southeast Coast. When other forcing is absent, look for a SER until those SST anomalies change. I'm more interested in winter severe wx than snow this year.

[John1122]

Since we've only had 5 or 6 observed strong to very strong El Nino's ever, it's hard to use analogs. Especially since they are all over the map in terms of weather they produced. One thing they all seem to have in common however is warm Decembers. So it's likely to start out warm if not torchy. The mega Nino of 1997-98 produced two epic snow events for Tennessee. I had 18 inches from one storm that year and other areas of the plateau did even better. Tri-Cities area got hammered the week before with 16-30 inches.

[jaxjagman]

Here's a good paper to read if anyone's interested.Credit to Anthony Masiello as i got it off his blog

 

http://sunburn.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/2013GL059137.pdf

[Carvers Gap]

Often the PDO is positive in an El Nino regime. In fact with strong El Ninos, PDO is almost always positive. The entire Pacific Basin is warm during strong Ninos. Guess what: Those winters are blowtorch. One must consider a bigger sample size of strong Nino +PDO and avoid the trap of considering +PDO alone. Regardless of anomaly, keep absolute temperatures in mind. Tropical water is much warmer than North Pacific water; therefore, the Tropical Pacific drives the thermodynamic bus. Strong El Nino is warm winter with high correlation.

 

The 1800s are off the table until we can achieve a Dalton sunspot minimum. Right now we are at the peak in the cycle, so still years away from the next minimum. Granted the peak is weak; therefore, the minimum could be impactful. However several questions still need to be answered. Will the minimum last as long as Dalton? Will other natural cycles coincide, or cancel out? Will we have a massive volcano erupt? What about human effects? While we cannot discuss AGW outside that sub-forum, but we can add it to the list of uncertainty in decadal forecasting. And forget about the Maunder minimum. We will never know in our lifetimes.

 

Back to 2015: We also have warm SST anomalies off the Southeast Coast. When other forcing is absent, look for a SER until those SST anomalies change. I'm more interested in winter severe wx than snow this year.

 

Great post.  Much of that fits my thinking.  I think this winter is like a homerun hitter walking to the plate.  Sometimes, the ball sails over the left field fence.  But most times, it is a strikeout or a walk(I have not idea what a walk would correspond to in terms of weather.  Ha!).  I think this winter will average slightly above normal with cold rain.  If you lived through the 90s, this winter is a 90s special.  I have seen several forecasters that I respect saying this could be a cold and snowy winter.  I know the sample size is small...but I will have to see it to believe it to steal a quote from Brent Hubbs Volquest(when referring to Tennessee's chances of beating Florida on any given year).  I do remember some Nino years when I was at UT when the outdoor pool opened in January.  So, the torch is on the table, but I am not buying it yet.  What am I buying?  Slightly above.  Very minimal snow opportunities.  One to two good chances for somebody in the eastern Valley, though the mountains could get rocked.  I think south of Knoxville is going to struggle to see any frozen precip.  Now, with all of that said, there runs the opportunity for a big storm.  Strong Ninos seem to produce historic East Coast storms, but not every year.  I have seen very warm winters with big blizzards in the mix.  The same energy that keeps us warm for the winter can, at times, produce a tempest.  I think that is our biggest hope.  I think the solar flux/sunspot count is the wild card as you mention.  Last winter, December showed a peak.  Then the sun then went quiet(if I remember correctly) when the cold roared in mid-winter.  It might be a coincidence.  But if the sun goes quiet again...all bets are off.  To me that is the biggest difference when thinking back to the 90s.  Maybe the AMO could help?  Not sure.  But for now, strong Ninos usually produce warm winters here.  Just how it is.  As for the chances for an average or cool winter.  Will have to see it to believe it.  The thing that was tough about the 90s is that there were so many strong Ninos that winters(outside of some big snows) were awful if you like snow.  Interestingly, those winters do correlate to huge numbers of sunspots and solar activity.  As the sun has waned(relatively speaking), the winters here have cooled and snow has returned.  But as many have said, there is a huge graveyard for failed winter predictions. I think we go into this winter knowing that our chances for snow are slim and enjoy whatever we get.  Unlike the 90s(admittedly some big snows embedded), we have had a few good winters during the past decade.  So, we are due for a warm winter.  We are not in Point Barrow, Alaska!

[John1122]

Great post.  Much of that fits my thinking.  I think this winter is like a homerun hitter walking to the plate.  Sometimes, the ball sails over the left field fence.  But most times, it is a strikeout or a walk(I have not idea what a walk would correspond to in terms of weather.  Ha!).  I think this winter will average slightly above normal with cold rain.  If you lived through the 90s, this winter is a 90s special.  I have seen several forecasters that I respect saying this could be a cold and snowy winter.  I know the sample size is small...but I will have to see it to believe it to steal a quote from Brent Hubbs Volquest(when referring to Tennessee's chances of beating Florida on any given year).  I do remember some Nino years when I was at UT when the outdoor pool opened in January.  So, the torch is on the table, but I am not buying it yet.  What am I buying?  Slightly above.  Very minimal snow opportunities.  One to two good chances for somebody in the eastern Valley, though the mountains could get rocked.  I think south of Knoxville is going to struggle to see any frozen precip.  Now, with all of that said, there runs the opportunity for a big storm.  Strong Ninos seem to produce historic East Coast storms, but not every year.  I have seen very warm winters with big blizzards in the mix.  The same energy that keeps us warm for the winter can, at times, produce a tempest.  I think that is our biggest hope.  I think the solar flux/sunspot count is the wild card as you mention.  Last winter, December showed a peak.  Then the sun then went quiet(if I remember correctly) when the cold roared in mid-winter.  It might be a coincidence.  But if the sun goes quiet again...all bets are off.  To me that is the biggest difference when thinking back to the 90s.  Maybe the AMO could help?  Not sure.  But for now, strong Ninos usually produce warm winters here.  Just how it is.  As for the chances for an average or cool winter.  Will have to see it to believe it.  The thing that was tough about the 90s is that there were so many strong Ninos that winters(outside of some big snows) were awful if you like snow.  Interestingly, those winters do correlate to huge numbers of sunspots and solar activity.  As the sun has waned(relatively speaking), the winters here have cooled and snow has returned.  But as many have said, there is a huge graveyard for failed winter predictions. I think we go into this winter knowing that our chances for snow are slim and enjoy whatever we get.  Unlike the 90s(admittedly some big snows embedded), we have had a few good winters during the past decade.  So, we are due for a warm winter.  We are not in Point Barrow, Alaska!

 

 

There have actually only been 5 strong Nino's since 1950. The only one in the 1990s was 1997-98, which produced two monster storms for Tennessee/SWVA/Kentucky. 

 

Another, 1965-1966 saw a severely wintery January with double digit snowstorms and -10 to -20 degree weather across the area. 

 

So they are rare enough and with large enough spreads in what actually happens to not really be able to use analogs imo, 

 

Our winter weather will be driven moreso by the PNA/NAO/AO than Nino. 

 

In 1991-1992 the NDJ Nino was 1.4 and we were above normal with little snow. In 2009-2010 the NDJ Nino was 1.3 and we were getting buried with snow/cold.

 

1991-1992 featured a generally neutral/positive NAO in winter. 2009-10 featured a deeply negative NAO. It drove the pattern, it and the PNA really are the keys here for whatever type of weather we get in winter. 

 

We'll see if the deeply negative NAO that we've seen this summer can translate into being negative this winter. Also if the warm Gulf of Alaska promotes a positive PNA again. 

[Carvers Gap]

There have actually only been 5 strong Nino's since 1950. The only one in the 1990s was 1997-98, which produced two monster storms for Tennessee/SWVA/Kentucky.

Another, 1965-1966 saw a severely wintery January with double digit snowstorms and -10 to -20 degree weather across the area.

So they are rare enough and with large enough spreads in what actually happens to not really be able to use analogs imo,

Our winter weather will be driven moreso by the PNA/NAO/AO than Nino.

In 1991-1992 the NDJ Nino was 1.4 and we were above normal with little snow. In 2009-2010 the NDJ Nino was 1.3 and we were getting buried with snow/cold.

1991-1992 featured a generally neutral/positive NAO in winter. 2009-10 featured a deeply negative NAO. It drove the pattern, it and the PNA really are the keys here for whatever type of weather we get in winter.

We'll see if the deeply negative NAO that we've seen this summer can translate into being negative this winter. Also if the warm Gulf of Alaska promotes a positive PNA again.

A picture is worth a thousand words. As I stated, we are looking for one or two good storms if based on climate data for Ninos. Strong Ninos can produce big storms but have less frequent storms for this area. Though the data set is small, the climate record varies little when it comes to moderate to strong Ninos. Those winters here generally are awful if you like snow. The pic below shows the Ninos of the 90s. The decade was a moderate to strong Nino. It may be that one single year was an extreme, but the decade was a trainwreck minus a few storms. Now, elevation did make a difference in that decade. There were some strong storms in the mountains and maybe even the Plateau. Like I said, I do believe there are some different variables - solar and AMO to name a few. I am not a true analog person. I do, however, think weather patterns repeat. Seems like strong ENSO events are feast or famine for the lower elevations with mostly famine. I do hold some hope that the generally colder winters of the past few years may hold an inherent pattern that could trump the pattern. However, at face value...strong ENSO events are cold rain. Of note, MRX has royally screwed-up KTRI's snow data as I have opined before in a previous post. I would post it, but multiple years from the 90s are missing. KTYS is posted below. As one can see, snow was not a frequent visitor at this lower elevation.

I do feel the ENSO state has a strong correlation to the weather in the Tennessee Valley. Although, in recent years that has been less important. An ocean full of warm water that is upstream (in terms of the jet) surely impacts the continent by flooding it with warm, moist air for large portions of the winter. For those wanting a truly historic storm, ENSO winters sometimes provide those. I think sustained cold could be had early in the winter season with Nino overwhelming the pattern if it persists. Now, a cold and nasty spring could follow. Also, I will add that the northern Plateau is a micro-climate in and of itself. So, Ninos could actually help your situation since you have elevation to your advantage.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

3.4 hit 2+ today on tidbits

[jaxjagman]

A picture is worth a thousand words.  As I stated, we are looking for one or two good storms if based on climate data for Ninos.  Strong Ninos can produce big storms but have less frequent storms for this area.  Though the data set is small, the climate record varies little when it comes to moderate to strong Ninos.  Those winters here generally are awful if you like snow.  The pic below shows the Ninos of the 90s.  The decade was a moderate to strong Nino.  It may be that one single year was an extremen, but the decade was a trainwreck minus a few storms.  Now, elevation did make a difference in that decade.  There were some strong storms in the mountains and maybe even the Plateau.  Like I said, I do believe there are some different variables - solar and AMO to name a few.  I am not a true analog person.  I do, however, think weather patterns repeat.  Seems like strong ENSO events are feast or famine for the lower elevations with mostly famine.  I do hold some hope that the generally colder winters of the past few years may hold an inherent pattern that could trump the pattern.  However, at face value...strong ENSO events are cold rain.  Of note, MRX has royally screwed-up KTRI's snow data as I have opined before in a previous post.   I would post it, but multiple years from the 90s are missing.  KTYS is posted below.  As one can see, snow was not a frequent visitor at this lower elevation.

 

mei.gif

 

KnoxvilleSnowData.JPG

 

I do feel the ENSO state has a strong correlation to the weather in the Tennessee Valley.  Although, in recent years that has been less important.  An ocean full of warm water that is upstream (in terms of the jet) surely impacts the continent by flooding it with warm, moist air for large portions of the winter.  For those wanting a truly historic storm, ENSO winters sometimes provide those.  I think sustained cold could be had early in the winter season with Nino overwhelming the pattern if it persists.  Now, a cold and nasty spring could follow.  Also, I will add that the northern Plateau is a micro-climate in and of itself.  So, Ninos could actually help your situation since you have elevation to your advantage.

Good post guys.You guys in the east  will always do better than us.It nauseates me as systems leaves us and heads towards the plateau in snow or even severe weather in sorts when the orographic lift takes over.Our best winters off this chart is in La Nina years in Middle Tn.1984 as you can see on this graph we got 18.6" this year.In a La Nina year of 1995,this was our best year in the past 30 years,we got 23.7".But 2002 was a El Nino year and we got 15.1".In 2010,a La Nina year we got 12.5"On the chart also 1987 was also El Nino 10.0".The last worthy look was 1992 with 9" but this was the only real significant year where it was a neutral season.So our season can vary,but the biggest snows for us around Nashville is in La Nina years the past 30 years.

 

[John1122]

A picture is worth a thousand words. As I stated, we are looking for one or two good storms if based on climate data for Ninos. Strong Ninos can produce big storms but have less frequent storms for this area. Though the data set is small, the climate record varies little when it comes to moderate to strong Ninos. Those winters here generally are awful if you like snow. The pic below shows the Ninos of the 90s. The decade was a moderate to strong Nino. It may be that one single year was an extreme, but the decade was a trainwreck minus a few storms. Now, elevation did make a difference in that decade. There were some strong storms in the mountains and maybe even the Plateau. Like I said, I do believe there are some different variables - solar and AMO to name a few. I am not a true analog person. I do, however, think weather patterns repeat. Seems like strong ENSO events are feast or famine for the lower elevations with mostly famine. I do hold some hope that the generally colder winters of the past few years may hold an inherent pattern that could trump the pattern. However, at face value...strong ENSO events are cold rain. Of note, MRX has royally screwed-up KTRI's snow data as I have opined before in a previous post. I would post it, but multiple years from the 90s are missing. KTYS is posted below. As one can see, snow was not a frequent visitor at this lower elevation.

mei.gif

KnoxvilleSnowData.JPG

I do feel the ENSO state has a strong correlation to the weather in the Tennessee Valley. Although, in recent years that has been less important. An ocean full of warm water that is upstream (in terms of the jet) surely impacts the continent by flooding it with warm, moist air for large portions of the winter. For those wanting a truly historic storm, ENSO winters sometimes provide those. I think sustained cold could be had early in the winter season with Nino overwhelming the pattern if it persists. Now, a cold and nasty spring could follow. Also, I will add that the northern Plateau is a micro-climate in and of itself. So, Ninos could actually help your situation since you have elevation to your advantage.

 

The 1991-92 and 1997-1998 Ninos are the exceptions it appears to me. 

 

Every other Mod-Strong Nino was pretty snowy in Knox looking at that chart. It is also missing data for the 1990s too. I have Knoxville News Sentinels from Jan-February of that year. Knox had 18 inches at Tys in those two months with much more in North Knox, but that chart appears to show 11 inches for the entire year in 1996.

 

 

1957-58 was a strong Nino. Knox had 6 inches of snow for 1957, 10 in 1958.

 

1965-1966 was a strong Nino. Knox had 18 inches in 1965. 16 in 1966.

 

1972-1973 was a strong Nino. Knox had 11 inches both years.

 

1982-1983 was a very strong Nino.  Knox had 6 inches in 1982 and 10 in 1983. I think 82 also has the fierce ice storm.

 

1986-1988 was a moderate to strong Nino. Knox had 10 inches in 1986, 20 in 1987, and 10 in 1988.

 

1991-1992 was a moderate Nino and  was a dud in Knox.

 

1997-1998 was a very strong Nino and was bad in Knox, but epic in the border counties from the west side of the plateau to Johnson county.

 

2002-2003 was a moderate nino. 2001-2002 were snowless in Knox, but 2003 bounced back to over 10 inches.

 

2009-2010 was a moderate Nino and the most epic winter of my lifetime. 40+ inches of snow here. Never bitter cold but always cold enough for snow. Knoxville managed to get outsnowed by every reporting station in Tennessee that year. They got punishing ice though.

 

We may not do well at all this year, but Nino seems to bring a decent shot of a double digit seasonal total, in the form of a large storm or two. It may be warm quite often in between the events, but big storms loom during those times.

[LithiaWx]

Great posts guys, really great posts.

[Carvers Gap]

The 1991-92 and 1997-1998 Ninos are the exceptions it appears to me.

Every other Mod-Strong Nino was pretty snowy in Knox looking at that chart. It is also missing data for the 1990s too. I have Knoxville News Sentinels from Jan-February of that year. Knox had 18 inches at Tys in those two months with much more in North Knox, but that chart appears to show 11 inches for the entire year in 1996.

1957-58 was a strong Nino. Knox had 6 inches of snow for 1957, 10 in 1958.

1965-1966 was a strong Nino. Knox had 18 inches in 1965. 16 in 1966.

1972-1973 was a strong Nino. Knox had 11 inches both years.

1982-1983 was a very strong Nino. Knox had 6 inches in 1982 and 10 in 1983. I think 82 also has the fierce ice storm.

1986-1988 was a moderate to strong Nino. Knox had 10 inches in 1986, 20 in 1987, and 10 in 1988.

1991-1992 was a moderate Nino and was a dud in Knox.

1997-1998 was a very strong Nino and was bad in Knox, but epic in the border counties from the west side of the plateau to Johnson county.

2002-2003 was a moderate nino. 2001-2002 were snowless in Knox, but 2003 bounced back to over 10 inches.

2009-2010 was a moderate Nino and the most epic winter of my lifetime. 40+ inches of snow here. Never bitter cold but always cold enough for snow. Knoxville managed to get outsnowed by every reporting station in Tennessee that year. They got punishing ice though.

We may not do well at all this year, but Nino seems to bring a decent shot of a double digit seasonal total, in the form of a large storm or two. It may be warm quite often in between the events, but big storms loom during those times.

Yeah, I am not sure what has happened to the MRX snow data. Personally, I think it is purposeful, especially when they claim to have lost recent data. Also, have to remember "normal" snow for KTYS was quite a bit more prior to 1990. I lived in Knoxville from 1970-1980. Some wild winters then. 10" for a season would not have been an eye opener then as it would be now. I do think during the 90s we were seeing unprecedented solar activity. So, that could be why they they were so warm. I mean, there were winters ( early to mid 90s) at UT when I rarely even wore a coat. 95-96 was good. Of course the blizzard was awesome. I do think our climate(in this area) has cooled during winter from say around 2001. And maybe that is to our advantage. But hey, I will be glad to be wrong. Normally my forecasts are on the cold side.

[Carvers Gap]

Great posts guys, really great posts.

I tell people all of the time, this board can flat out talk weather with the best of them. I agree. Great discussion. Still 3-4 mos before the Valley has any chances. So this far out, seasonal forecasts can make even experts look bad. I remember the Cohen snow cover deal last winter. BTW, I think that has some merit. He just got hammered.

I will hold to slightly above normal temps, above normal precip and below normal snowfall for the Valleys. The mountains may do well. Like I said, snow will be dependent on whether we can hit on a big storm. So, some areas may reach normal. Others may see a blank. Elevation matters during Nino years. 33 and rain in Knoxville can be a big snow above 3000'. Should the Nino weaken slightly, then the winter could be potentially historic. With a strong Nino, the southern jet will be raging. If it is weak enough, we could get split flow. If not, we could go weeks on end with difficulty even getting a frost. Plenty of variables still to resolve. Again, I think this is a winter with cold rain and we really depend on one good storm for the lower elevations.

Edit...I do think the case can be made for a cool winter. I just think an entire basin full of warm water is going to make it problematic for the southeast to remain cold enough for multiple snow events. Going to be threading the needle IMO. But...if cold can get entrenched in the face of that Nino, watch out.