StormSurge Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Well as usual GYX on top of it, so nothing to be upset about. You can only do so much. Nice job from Ekster/Legro on getting that warning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still a strong signal for tomorrow AM at the south coast off 21z SREF. Where would that originate from???? SW to NE??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Nice job from Ekster/Legro on getting that warning out. Dynamic duo set to be back for the day shift tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wow - even more bullish on afternoon threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Dynamic duo set to be back for the day shift tomorrow too. Nice. I'm here 9-6 tomorrow. Hopefully we get a storm worth getting excited over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Wow - even more bullish on afternoon threat now. Interesting it pegs northern areas up here again. Probably a shear dominating term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Interesting it pegs northern areas up here again. Probably a shear dominating term? Yeah - I'm guessing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Interesting it pegs northern areas up here again. Probably a shear dominating term? Shear and closer to ULL. Nice job today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Awesome light show to my south as round 3 of storms rolls in..may just miss this one just to the south. Sky is really lighting up though and nonstop rumbles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Take the RAP with a grain of salt this far out, but it pushes the front to just about I-95 by 2 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've never seen a light blue prob over us before...wow Man wish I was more into this :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 A cool 4,000 j/kg of CAPE tomorrow afternoon on the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've never seen a light blue prob over us before...wow Man wish I was more into this :/ I think one of the reasons the 24-hr probs are so high is that they encompass 2 distinct threats - pre-dawn and afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think one of the reasons the 24-hr probs are so high is that they encompass 2 distinct threats - pre-dawn and afternoon. Well that makes complete sense. The 12-HR probs aren't too shabby though either: It will be interesting to see what the SPC does with the 6z outlook for severe probs...seems like at least the 24-HR svr probs (and I'm sure 12-HR maybe in a scenario like this) get weighed pretty heavily with risk categories and probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Man an awesome storm just rolled through here just south of Albany...lots of real close loud claps of thunder and heavy rain. My folks are near 0.90" so far today for rain. Nighttime strobe lightning is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The 21z SPC SREF also has a 50% prob of MLcape exceeding 2000 J/KG tomorrow afternoon, particularly across eastern CT into RI and perhaps into SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 NAM is significant (goofy really) with strong instability coinciding with 40-50+kts bulk shear. Severe composite parameter(s) go into highly anomalous territories. The 4km NAM solution is suspect, but only shows a few discrete late-day cells. Though unlikely, that scenario could result in some very robust supercells. I'd tend to think a messier storm mode is to be expected with at least some marginal severe threat in the early day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Awful timing for this area...oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 A few rumbles and some lightning outside here now, Looks to be a quick shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 NAM is significant (goofy really) with strong instability coinciding with 40-50+kts bulk shear. Severe composite parameter(s) go into highly anomalous territories. The 4km NAM solution is suspect, but only shows a few discrete late-day cells. Though unlikely, that scenario could result in some very robust supercells. I'd tend to think a messier storm mode is to be expected with at least some marginal severe threat in the early day as well. Without much synoptic scale forcing I sort of buy a more discrete solution with only isolated/scattered coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 not bad on the 0z NAM at 18z tomorrow near BDL (or some place in northern CT). Pretty long hodograph given some pretty decent speed shear and some curvature present given some directional component in the lowest few km. Pretty nasty hodograph for the potential of significant damaging winds, some very large hail and of course possibility of a TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Without much synoptic scale forcing I sort of buy a more discrete solution with only isolated/scattered coverage.I'm more concerned about early day convection or at least cloud debris. Forecast soundings are fairly moist in the boundary layer, along with PWATs over 1.5".With that said, the HRRR favors strong instability already reaching GON-TAN by noon. Caveat, winds veer to the SSW/SW across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I'm more concerned about early day convection or at least cloud debris. Forecast soundings are fairly moist in the boundary layer, along with PWATs over 1.5". With that said, the HRRR favors strong instability already reaching GON-TAN by noon. I'm not worried at all about cloud debris/am convection. Issue seems to rest solely on whether dry air advects in from the best in the mixed layer. Some of the models (GFS, especially) have been insisting on bringing in much drier air around 850 hpa which effectively nixes the CAPE. The other issue will be overcoming a bit of CIN with no real trigger. Surface convergence is pretty minor around that washed out front and there's no real QG forcing for ascent with neutral height falls and no discernible CVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Well if the NAM is correct with sfc dews AOB 70F and 850mb dews ~14C or so with near +20C 850mb temps there is no question it will become pretty damn unstable very quickly, especially if mlvl lapse rates are 6.5 C/KM or higher...the 21z SPC SREF has a 10% prob of 700-500 lapse rates briefly exceeding 7 C/KM tomorrow around 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've issued 55 severe thunderstorm warnings in the last 15 days. I'm seeing polygons in my sleep. Anyone see that monster raking southern New Hampshire just north of the Massachusetts border prior to noon tomorrow On the 01z hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've issued 55 severe thunderstorm warnings in the last 15 days. I'm seeing polygons in my sleep. Anyone see that monster raking southern New Hampshire just north of the Massachusetts border prior to noon tomorrow On the 01z hrrr? Nice updraft helicity on that beast. Meanwhile here in the severe graveyard of SNE... getting a CG seems to be a struggle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Only have the HRRR soundings out to 16z, but even in the warm sector with minimal apparent debris, moist at 850mb. Shear is largely unidirectional. Use caution with the analogs. That sig hail analog is not a good match as at a closer look shows much more directional shear in the lowest 2km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Nice updraft helicity on that beast. Meanwhile here in the severe graveyard of SNE... getting a CG seems to be a struggle! well you'll probably make up for it in September when a cat 2 barrels into Clinton CT and it takes Ct light and power 7 weeks to restore the 1 million outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Feels weird saying this but if there is any tornado possibility tomorrow that potential may exist across far SE MA, the Cape area, and RI. Models do redevelop a pretty decent (30-35 knot) llj later in the day tomorrow. Just questions as to whether this occurs over this area or out over the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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