ineedsnow Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Actually feels kind of cool here need to get the good dews north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I'm glad I sort of went with the synoptic/mesoscale look and forecast overnight storms even though the models were pretty meh. Seems like the hires stuff is catching on. Yeah we discussed storms overnight at work as well. Although doesn't have the QPF...I don't recall when that instability pushing north wasn't utilized. Any little convergence excuse from LLJ etc may tap into that. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Ugh..man that's sad from Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 So anything for tonight or just a bunch of meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Ugh..man that's sad from Lancaster. And that warning decision was borderline too. The updraft was fairly small, and we went back and forth and finally decided conditions were only getting better as time went on so it would probably grow upscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Nothing too special even with the hail icon right over me. Rained heavily and a decent amount of lightning. No hail and winds probably under 30 at their peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 And that warning decision was borderline too. The updraft was fairly small, and we went back and forth and finally decided conditions were only getting better as time went on so it would probably grow upscale. That's good it was warned. But I think regardless...it's just one of those things that are bound to happen. I don't think you can get mad either way....probably not going to do much to prevent this. It's an unfortunately consequence of summer storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 One time was that cell Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 One time was that cell Chris? Probably happened between 5:30 and 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah we discussed storms overnight at work as well. Although doesn't have the QPF...I don't recall when that instability pushing north wasn't utilized. Any little convergence excuse from LLJ etc may tap into that. I guess we will see. The tomorrow afternoon potential is still a big question mark. SREF still a bit bullish but the deterministic models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Mehby? Lines are meant to be crossed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The tomorrow afternoon potential is still a big question mark. SREF still a bit bullish but the deterministic models are all over the place. Completely out of the loop with everything but this is pretty damn impressive from the 15z run. Don't see those probs that often here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Completely out of the loop with everything but this is pretty damn impressive from the 15z run. Don't see those probs that often here Tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I know it's not technically SNE but is NNJ/NYC also in threat zone? Haven't had time to check models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 ? Not to sound like Kevin but dew points on the CT Shore are >70. 70F HVN, 70 SNC, 71 GON, 70 WST. I am at IJD at a game, breezy and very comfortable feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The tomorrow afternoon potential is still a big question mark. SREF still a bit bullish but the deterministic models are all over the place. Yeah it's funny how different they look. Euro now looks like front crosses later on so that's good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Tomorrow night? that's 21z tomorrow so more late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I am at IJD at a game, breezy and very comfortable feel. IJD is 79/67. Not oppressive but not particularly dry. Higher dew point air is advecting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Probably happened between 5:30 and 6 Looks like it may have been a lefty mover around 5:40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 IJD is 79/67. Not oppressive but not particularly dry. Higher dew point air is advecting north. thanks certainly doesn't feel muggy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 IJD is 79/67. Not oppressive but not particularly dry. Higher dew point air is advecting north. LOL, sounds like October wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah it's funny how different they look. Euro now looks like front crosses later on so that's good . From what I've read it sounds like the front/trough will become parallel to the upper flow? If this is the case a slower fropa could make sense in this situation. However, with any pre-frontal trough that passes you do run the risk of mixing drier air into the lower levels...the hope here is the pre-frontal scoots far enough east to allow a SW flow to return and rebuild the llvl moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah it's funny how different they look. Euro now looks like front crosses later on so that's good . I agreed with Forky's earlier comment that the NAM has a tendency to do this with super-unrealistic CAPE when these fronts sort of wash out or stall overhead. THat said, unlike earlier this year when it happened there is support from the SREF to go along with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Sad stuff in NH... https://mobile.twitter.com/ap/status/628365003960250372 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 LOL, sounds like October wx.dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I agreed with Forky's earlier comment that the NAM has a tendency to do this with super-unrealistic CAPE when these fronts sort of wash out or stall overhead. THat said, unlike earlier this year when it happened there is support from the SREF to go along with the NAM. SREFs and some mesos too. I did see GFS tries to dry out ORH-BDL a bit, but sometimes that model is a bit fast. It did look like RGEM had the chance for storms too BDL-ORH east. Tough call tomorrow. I sort of favor BDL-ORH on east I suppose. Maybe some storms also far north closer to ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Looks like it may have been a lefty mover around 5:40. We thought it was a left mover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 One of the bigger players tomorrow will certainly be what happens overnight and early AM hours with convection and leftover boundaries. Where these boundaries setup may very well be the focus for convective initiation later in the day. In fact, would really have to watch out for supercell potential in this situation (of course if instability materializes) b/c this could make for some enhanced directional shear potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 We thought it was a left mover too. Well as usual GYX on top of it, so nothing to be upset about. You can only do so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still a strong signal for tomorrow AM at the south coast off 21z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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