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Potential biggest severe outbreak of the Summer


Damage In Tolland

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we've issued 103 severe thunderstorm warnings in the last 16 days. I think I have 65 of them. I'm seeing polygons in my sleep.

 

It's been insane up that way these past few weeks...you couldn't ask for a better pattern.  As the years go on I become more and more convinced that NNE is the place to be in the northeast (outside of NY/PA) for severe storms.  Just north enough to be at the crest of the ridging typically so you have great shear and you can get some steeper lapse rates which move in from either the upper mid-west or from Canada.  

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Yeah you don't need a true EML to have great events. Red flags should go up with widespread 6.5+ C/km 700-500mb as you as you have decent sfc dews and sufficient deep layer shear. Kicks it up a notch once you have that...allows cores to really explode.

 

I thought the shear and CAPE combo was really good. The meso models and consistency of SREFs were noteworthy. The Craven-Brooks product really highlighted best areas. Granted the WRF NMM and ARW weren't always lock and step..but they had a signal. GFS seemed too fast and dried us out too quickly. NAM was pretty good. We were always on east of of trough to begin with and just enough of help from entrance region of jet as well, through mid aftn. The slight mid level drying if anything may have even helped, considering we had deep BL moisture. I agree about that 6.5 threshold. Seems to separate the men from the boys. We had that back earlier in July when srn CT through CC had that outbreak of severe as well. 

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I thought the shear and CAPE combo was really good. The meso models and consistency of SREFs were noteworthy. The Craven-Brooks product really highlighted best areas. Granted the WRF NMM and ARW weren't always lock and step..but they had a signal. GFS seemed too fast and dried us out too quickly. NAM was pretty good. We were always on east of of trough to begin with and just enough of help from entrance region of jet as well, through mid aftn. The slight mid level drying if anything may have even helped, considering we had deep BL moisture. I agree about that 6.5 threshold. Seems to separate the men from the boys. We had that back earlier in July when srn CT through CC had that outbreak of severe as well. 

 

Wasn't that in mid or late June?  That event had even slightly better 700-500 lapse rates too...7 C/KM lapse rates tickled southern CT into RI/SE MA.  The stupid piece of garbage MCS that went through in the AM which went further south than thought pushed the best threat south and canned the tornado threat.  

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Wasn't that in mid or late June? That event had even slightly better 700-500 lapse rates too...7 C/KM lapse rates tickled southern CT into RI/SE MA. The stupid piece of garbage MCS that went through in the AM which went further south than thought pushed the best threat south and canned the tornado threat.

Yeah, whenever it was. It had close to 7 on south coast, but it goes along with what Mike said. 6.5-7 is dam good , especially if shear is there to help really maintain updrafts. If you can develop a mature updraft and get rotation, skies the limit. It's the lapse rates that can help achieve that.

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Okay, so I put the dog in the cage around 1:30 and started down 93 to get ahead of the tornado warned cell. It was obvious that it was had a more easterly direction than northeast and if I wanted to get any wall cloud action I would need to be near 128/93. The storm's rotation actually weakened a little bit but ramped up slightly as it approached me at Target in Woburn one exit north of 128. 

I managed to get into Woburn right on time and found an area with a decent vantage point on the approaching cell. 20150804_144539_zpskai5458z.jpg I then took this after setting up at Target. Probably had 45-60mph winds with dime to nickel sized hail. CLli_ulWgAE3ahj.jpg I reported it on twitter and it went pretty viral for a bit which was awesome. I attempted to chase the cell but couldn't catch up to the core on 128 due to traffic. 20150804_151452_zpsaetdcctr.jpg

Great pics.  Just saw the middle one on Boston Fox news.  

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Yeah, whenever it was. It had close to 7 on south coast, but it goes along with what Mike said. 6.5-7 is dam good , especially if shear is there to help really maintain updrafts. If you can develop a mature updraft and get rotation, skies the limit. It's the lapse rates that can help achieve that.

 

Oh no doubt...if you want hail 2'' or greater you certainly need ingredients like you had today.  Shear was perfect along with instability to not only keep updrafts separate from downdrafts for a good period but the degree of vertical shear, 0-3km helicity, lapse rates, and cape all made for some vigorous updraft strength.  

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W MA used to at least be the reliable SNE jackpot zone for summer severe but geez, after jp'ing snow all winter now E MA and RI are the severe kings too.

#stopstealingourweather

The morning MCS intensity increased after passing most of CT ,and than we were pretty much shutout in Round 2 ,so we were definitely the winter dry slot or sucker hole for the region yesterday, but it was a fun day regardless. Lots of great pics and video.
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W MA used to at least be the reliable SNE jackpot zone for summer severe but geez, after jp'ing snow all winter now E MA and RI are the severe kings too.

#stopstealingourweather

Last year was really quiet for us. It's also one day amid a very tame summer, storm wise.

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i was behind the first cell that went through bedford/woburn. this first pic is on 128 in lexington, the cell was cruising by just north of where i was.

post-315-0-02395400-1438771944_thumb.jpg 

the second pic is 128 north at rt 3 in burlington. I think Jay had a similar picture as the storm headed east.

post-315-0-92372100-1438771976_thumb.jpg

by the time i got up rt 3 to billerica the storm had passed by. could see the second cell heading towards lowell and nashua off in the distance as i headed north 

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We had another storm roll through last night.  I forget what time (maybe 10:30 or 11ish but it could have been 2:00) just that I had to get out of bed to shut windows, not much lightning but a fair bit of rain with it.  

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Got power back around 7:30

A bolt had tripped two breakers on two transformers

No damage.

 

OT but I wonder why they can't have the ability to reset those remotely.  We were without power for a week in October 2011 and the other half of the neighborhood had power.  Then one day they can through and 5 minutes later our power was back on.  Now I understand the priorities in the grand scheme but you'd think from a restoration perspective that being able to reset these without sending a crew out would be helpful.

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OT but I wonder why they can't have the ability to reset those remotely.  We were without power for a week in October 2011 and the other half of the neighborhood had power.  Then one day they can through and 5 minutes later our power was back on.  Now I understand the priorities in the grand scheme but you'd think from a restoration perspective that being able to reset these without sending a crew out would be helpful.

To remotely reset you need electrical power to gear them up, no they need to be manually reset.

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To remotely reset you need electrical power to gear them up, no they need to be manually reset.

 

It's like resetting a circuit breaker in your house only on a larger scale.  There's already power there, just on one side of the circuit.  Reset the breaker and the power is flowing.  Remote control circuit breakers already exist.  I agree though that if power is not present, you couldn't reset the circuit or it would do no good.

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It's like resetting a circuit breaker in your house only on a larger scale.  There's already power there, just on one side of the circuit.  Reset the breaker and the power is flowing.  Remote control circuit breakers already exist.  I agree though that if power is not present, you couldn't reset the circuit or it would do no good.

the technology exists but they aren't going to flip a circuit breaker without first determining what caused the trip and making sure when they flip that circuit it doesn't kill someone

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