Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Looks like I picked a good time to go up to Lake Winni today. Rest of region gets it as well. Prepare for quite a bit of damage HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALLBUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THISEVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING INTHE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITHJET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPESIN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELLINTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVERTHE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEMAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN ANDWESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT ANDMOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OFDAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THATLINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGEHAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLYAFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREATFOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OFCONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I am willing to share my damage today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 The 6z NAM for Tuesday is incredible. About 60 knots of effective bulk shear and 3500 j/kg of MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 ...and the Euro has effectively 0 cape for the same region Tuesday afternoon with dew points in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 From the BGM discussion this morning: THE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL PROMOTE COLD POOLS ADVANCING AHEAD OF STORMS AND THUS GUSTYWINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL DIRECTLY UNDERCELLS. I don't really understand conceptually what this means.....can someone help me out? I think of lapse rates as a horizontal parameter so how does that get the cold pools out ahead of the storms? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 ...and the Euro has effectively 0 cape for the same region Tuesday afternoon with dew points in the 50s. Well NCAR ensembles say red area today, yellow area tomorrow (and average about 2,000 CAPE tomorrow across SNE, so take that Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 CAPE actually increases overnight into tomorrow morning from the south. Strong winds aloft and decent lapse rates, venting from entrance region of jet...don't see why we won't have some good bangers maybe predawn into aftn depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 If you buy the old MI to New England correlation, there is nothing wrong with the SPC reports page from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 If you buy the old MI to New England correlation, there is nothing wrong with the SPC reports page from yesterday. Could be a good day for your nrn counties..well late day into evening more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 If you buy the old MI to New England correlation, there is nothing wrong with the SPC reports page from yesterday. Going to be a fun day possibly in the ALY, BTV, BGM, BUF, GYX offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Going to be a fun day possibly in the ALY, BTV, BGM, BUF, GYX offices. I predict 4 picnic tables blown into the office at 1500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 CAPE actually increases overnight into tomorrow morning from the south. Strong winds aloft and decent lapse rates, venting from entrance region of jet...don't see why we won't have some good bangers maybe predawn into aftn depending on location. I agree. Could see an impressive round of dawn-convection. Maybe some marginal hail reports and lots of CGs? Nice steepening of mid level lapse rates. The question is can we recover after morning convection and do low level dews mix out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Well NCAR ensembles say red area today, yellow area tomorrow (and average about 2,000 CAPE tomorrow across SNE, so take that Euro). hmuh_max_f001-f046_NE.png Yeah they're pretty impressive for tomorrow. Also - notice that area of convection around 6z tonight in the Springfield Mass area. Pretty decent signal for some good overnight bangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Looks like I picked a good time to go up to Lake Winni today. Rest of region gets it as well. Prepare for quite a bit of damage HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH. LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING. Damage Entering Winni DEW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Can you share just a little bit with the seacoast? I guess KDAW is right smack in between the Lakes Region and the Seacoast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Yeah they're pretty impressive for tomorrow. Also - notice that area of convection around 6z tonight in the Springfield Mass area. Pretty decent signal for some good overnight bangers. SPC WRF develops a nice supercell or two late night over far southern SNE. Wouldn't that be something, overnight ping pongs at Tolland, while Kevin is high and dry at the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 SPC WRF develops a nice supercell or two late night over far southern SNE. Wouldn't that be something, overnight ping pongs at Tolland, while Kevin is high and dry at the lake. Looks like the NCAR ensembles have some supercells riding the coast east from Long Island. And yes... that would be fantastic! Damage in Tolland... Partly Cloudy in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Not sure how I feel about trolling Kevin when it would be at my expense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Not sure how I feel about trolling Kevin when it would be at my expense. you just take one for the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2015 Author Share Posted August 3, 2015 And that's what will happen. last year when we were in the Whites..that supercell moved right thru Tolland from Springfield and caused all that damage in town..including part of the roof at Big Y plaza. Same thing will happen tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Not sure how I feel about trolling Kevin when it would be at my expense. We're probably in the worst spot timing wise for this as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We're probably in the worst spot timing wise for this as it is. if we get storms here in my area...does the timing look to be overnight? Looking to head out for a 2-3 hours around 5pm for a bike ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 hurtful posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We're probably in the worst spot timing wise for this as it is. I support this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We're probably in the worst spot timing wise for this as it is. Looks like my area sits between the red zone and the yellow - cake yesterday (storms west) and cake tomorrow (storms east) but no cake today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Maybe the best hope for severe in our area today is that all this cloud cover shunts the differential heating boundary a little farther east than modeled. Of course this just offsets the best thermodynamics from forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I agree. Could see an impressive round of dawn-convection. Maybe some marginal hail reports and lots of CGs? Nice steepening of mid level lapse rates. The question is can we recover after morning convection and do low level dews mix out? I have a feeling tomorrow may be best BOS-BDL and SE perhaps? Seems like GFS and NAM look good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 As far as SNE goes, I just like seeing that bubble of MU and ML CAPE too, bubble up from the south. Lapse rates also look fairly good for our region all things considered. Tip disco ball strobes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 How's this for convection allowing? 12z HRRR develops a nice storm or cluster just north of the border and creates its own cold pool and 60 knot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Looks like my area sits between the red zone and the yellow - cake yesterday (storms west) and cake tomorrow (storms east) but no cake today. I fully anticipate being between both in no mans land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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