Stebo Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Hopefully, this one doesn't go to waste also... The low MLCAPE concerns me a bit, though that should improve into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 The low MLCAPE concerns me a bit, though that should improve into the evening. I figure that's pretty much indicative of the dry air mixing downward, as there isn't much of a cap. And that's probably why the storms that attempted to fire on the SW wing of the MCS in Ontario failed to materialize. 850mb transport vectors does show better moisture advecting in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Definitely an amped environment for severe this evening. Ample amounts of CAPE with little CIN... We should be good to go across most of the sub forum - even after sunset as better moisture moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0508 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MICONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...VALID 022208Z - 022345ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLDPOOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSSCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MOREGRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVESYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING. A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLYINCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHOSIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EASTSOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW...AND WILLPROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY AROUND23Z. SEVERAL 3- SECOND PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ASOS SITESWITH THIS FEATURE.ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALEGROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EASTSOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKEMICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TOTHE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TOHOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENTACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TOCONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OFTHE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUSTFRONT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREASBY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...LAT...LON 43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 4334826942878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 4366870443948680 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 A bow echo (or at least a bow-shaped thunderstorm) is about to catch up with a slower-moving heavy squall line in the Saginaw Bay. And all in the part of the country that can't seem to ever get CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... VALID 022208Z - 022345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MORE GRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING. A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHO SIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW...AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY AROUND 23Z. SEVERAL 3- SECOND PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ASOS SITES WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TO HOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUST FRONT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREAS BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015 ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 43348269 42878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 43668704 43948680 Hopefully I'm in it? They should do the rest of the Enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Atmosphere made a great recovery, temps back up to 88 in DKB rocking a dp of 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 New Watch, Not In it Again. I assume they will do a watch or areal extension for Southern Michigan (Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph-Branch-Hillsdale-Lenawee-Monroe) at a later time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 New Watch, Not In it Again. I assume they will do a watch or areal extension for Southern Michigan (Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph-Branch-Hillsdale-Lenawee-Monroe) at a later time. The New Watch is in effect until 2am. Includes the remainder of MI except for the IN/OH border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 An epic MCS just tore across southwestern Ontario, and just missed me by 10 miles. Looks like I'll get some action nearby later. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 The New Watch is in effect until 2am. Includes the remainder of MI except for the IN/OH border counties. They'll probably do another watch for them and some Indiana and Ohio counties as the MCS is coming our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Per the latest SPC update, there was 1 injury caused by a fallen tree from that lone supercell in N. IL (Evanston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Per the latest SPC update, there was 1 injury caused by a fallen tree from that lone supercell in N. IL (Evanston). I assume there will be additions to the injury/fatality count once everything in Wooddale becomes clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 N IL still done for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 N IL still done for the day Cool dude. How about you just keep these pointless posts to yourself in the future. I get tired of reading people making posts like that without at least giving a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 N IL still done for the day Maybe, maybe not. I'm hoping the line will unzip around LaCrosse and move se. Storms have formed near Des Moines and WI and MI are certainly doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 N IL still done for the day Disagree...there should at least be some storms but the bigger question is whether there will be a long, continuous line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Thunderstorm development should be underway within the next two hours... not calling it off just yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 A bow echo (or at least a bow-shaped thunderstorm) is about to catch up with a slower-moving heavy squall line in the Saginaw Bay. And all in the part of the country that can't seem to ever get CAPE. Noticed it and wondered how it'd look after, its headed in a direction that could land it in my region. Likely other cells and the next line will form before that. An epic MCS just tore across southwestern Ontario, and just missed me by 10 miles. Looks like I'll get some action nearby later. Sent from my GT-N8010 I saw. My post is on page 3 but I'm still trying to keep up. It was the best storm of the year but ties June 23 for overall event. Its getting dark here again, 2nd rounds this fast don't happen that much. TWN is screwed up on my end, just a filler screen and no video . I'm so fed up with it, just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 SPC meso now indicating a possible watch for southern IA. C'mon mother nature. Let's fill in the gap farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 MCS has taken a se turn. SEMI, SW Ontario are going to get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Its getting dark here again, 2nd rounds this fast don't happen that much. TWN is screwed up on my end, just a filler screen and no video . I'm so fed up with it, just ridiculous. We need a better weather channel and warning system. Canada and much of the rest of the world are horribly outdated compared to the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Watches needed soon for Eastern Iowa and eventually Southern Michigan/Northern Indiana/Northwest Ohio. The MCS is getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Window only 1-2 hrs away from closing for NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Looking like a blue sky bust for east IA/northwest IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 MCS has taken a se turn. SEMI, SW Ontario are going to get pounded. Goodness, this next line that is coming is going to be wicked. I can see frequent lightning already in the distance and I just feel this could be the worst storm in years here, worse than hours ago!! Getting really dark with rumbles, every second that goes by I can see the edge coming extremely fast! We need a better weather channel and warning system. Canada and much of the rest of the world are horribly outdated compared to the NWS. Agreed, but its a network issue right now, I hate it at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 tornadoes reported at Nevinville Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 tornadoes reported at Nevinville Iowa There was some strong rotation at some point... interesting supercell... the tornado is almost stationary. Warning renewed... "radar confirmed" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Great looking supercell... especially for early August when the jet stream is supposed to be weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 3, 2015 Author Share Posted August 3, 2015 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 812 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 MIZ053-060>063-068>070-076-030115- LIVINGSTON MI-GENESEE MI-MACOMB MI-SAGINAW MI-OAKLAND MI-WAYNE MI- SHIAWASSEE MI-LAPEER MI-ST. CLAIR MI- 812 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. CLAIR...SOUTHWESTERN SAGINAW...SHIAWASSEE...SOUTHERN LAPEER...SOUTHERN GENESEE...MACOMB... NORTHERN LIVINGSTON...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND OAKLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT... AT 810 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF MARION SPRINGS TO NEAR ORTONVILLE TO NEAR MARYSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STRONG WINDS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS GUST FRONT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... ST. CLAIR...MARYSVILLE...GOODRICH AND ORTONVILLE AROUND 815 PM EDT. OXFORD AROUND 820 PM EDT. CLARKSTON AROUND 835 PM EDT. PONTIAC AND ALGONAC AROUND 840 PM EDT. LAINGSBURG AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 855 PM EDT. NOVI AROUND 900 PM EDT. LIVONIA AROUND 915 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS GUST FRONT INCLUDE CLINTON TOWNSHIP... DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP...HAZEL PARK...WATERFORD...RAY CENTER...WOLVERINE LAKE...PLEASANT RIDGE...RATTLE RUN...STONEY CREEK METRO PARK AND COMMERCE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. LAT...LON 4261 8255 4261 8252 4253 8267 4260 8271 4267 8262 4269 8270 4265 8280 4257 8278 4252 8268 4257 8283 4242 8288 4243 8339 4265 8414 4278 8416 4278 8437 4322 8437 4292 8344 4292 8246 TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 356DEG 26KT 4320 8447 4290 8343 4287 8240 Well... That's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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