HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Current SPC Day 2 Outlook Maximum MUCAPE per 18Z GFS Same on NAM Very Large Supercell Composite's per 18Z NAM, very high up near Lansing during the night. NAM also has a 2-3 SIG Tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 "How is this not a thread yet?" Squall lines are boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 "How is this not a thread yet?" Squall lines are boring. Better than nothing, especially if the stupid MCS tonight doesn't do much damage in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Better than nothing, especially if the stupid MCS tonight doesn't do much damage in the morning. It's 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 It's 2015. We're entering the most boring time of the year for weather. Better embrace what we get. August and September = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Timing sucks for a fair amount of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 August used to be money for derechos here in chitown....not so much the last couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 smells like morning debris with a garbage line in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Well, cap isn't an issue in SD. It is in Minnesota though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Well, cap isn't an issue in SD. It is in Minnesota though. SD even had some help with a weak shortwave and convection couldn't maintain itself. I actually wouldn't be surprised if much of S MN sees nothing this evening. The LLJ focuses farther east so maybe far SE MN into W WI can get development later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Dead....nothing happening here tonight. The potential was there with the shortwave in the Dakotas. But it looks like it's a wasted opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 NAM doesn't have storms initiating tonight, unlike HRRR. Dew points aren't too unreasonable... only in the low-mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 If that MCS doesn't form tonight, tomorrow's could be actually really strong for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Watch canceled... only 1 storm popped in the watch area. RIP Curious what they'll do with the day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Watch canceled... only 1 storm popped in the watch area. RIP Curious what they'll do with the day 1 outlook This might be a sign to watch out for bust potential tomorrow. Today initially looked alright and had a large slight risk and hatched 15% hail risk but ended up busting. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 This might be a sign to watch out for bust potential tomorrow. Today initially looked alright and had a large slight risk and hatched 15% hail risk but ended up busting. Sent from my GT-N8010 One thing I think that we can infer from today is that the warm layer/cap is warmer than the models thought... that's why no storms popped. Knowing the warm layer usually gets cooler as it spreads east, I don't think it will create an unforeseen problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Much stronger shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes tomorrow. Forcing won't be an issue and neither should instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Much stronger shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes tomorrow. Forcing won't be an issue and neither should instability.I think SPC will pull the trigger on an Enhanced upgrade in the new DAY 1 outlook. A lot of their uncertainties have been figured out because of the fail today (esp. uncertainty about instability). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Just gonna have to see how tonight's stuff evolves. New storms finally blowing up over western WI and southern MN. More importantly there's quite a bit of convection up near the US/Canadian border. If that continues to organize it will sink southeast towards the risk area by tomorrow morning flooding it with cloud debris, and of course leftover convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Tomorrow should easily be an ENH risk for wind across portions of WI and MI. I'm certainly not going to bank on anything popping on the warm front tomorrow afternoon, but there should be a nice nocturnal MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I think SPC will pull the trigger on an Enhanced upgrade in the new DAY 1 outlook. A lot of their uncertainties have been figured out because of the fail today (esp. uncertainty about instability). I agree on the enhanced tomorrow, but I wonder if they wait until the 13z update in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I agree on the enhanced tomorrow, but I wonder if they wait until the 13z update in the morning. It's entirely possible, and would probably be the smart play considering the uncertain coverage of the convection developing upstream. But on the other hand, the dynamics are so strong and initiation is going to occur so late that convective debris may be less of a factor than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Just gonna have to see how tonight's stuff evolves. New storms finally blowing up over western WI and southern MN. More importantly there's quite a bit of convection up near the US/Canadian border. If that continues to organize it will sink southeast towards the risk area by tomorrow morning flooding it with cloud debris, and of course leftover convection. That convection formed and is now weakening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 SD even had some help with a weak shortwave and convection couldn't maintain itself. I actually wouldn't be surprised if much of S MN sees nothing this evening. The LLJ focuses farther east so maybe far SE MN into W WI can get development later Nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 That convection formed and is now weakening rapidly. Incorrect. Storms are continuing to increase across WI and southern MN, and the US border convection is still severe warned at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 4km NAM blows up a nice looking line in MI/WI and moves it southeast into IL/IN/OH tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Incorrect. Storms are continuing to increase across WI and southern MN, and the US border convection is still severe warned at times. Spoke too soon, there is a nice supercell trying to form in Central Wisconsin, is warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 The latest GFS and NAM give me hope for days 3 and 4 (4th and 5th) for my area... but no doubt, the threat should be less than today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Yeah SPC pulled the trigger on quite a large ehnaced area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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