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August 2015 Observation thread.


NRVwxfan.

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24 hr rainfall across the area. Yes, a few spots where completely dry but this is by far the best coverage I have seen in a long time. Clearly Southeastern Mecklenburg into Union Co. was a huge with flash flooding last night 4-5" there. ‪#‎ncwx‬ ‪#‎scwx‬ ‪#‎cltwx‬

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Had to do a double take at the mesoanalysis when I just looked at it.  Wasn't expecting it to look so good before noon.  Sbcape is 2500.  Mucape is around 2000. Dcape is 600.  Lift is -5.  PWATS are still high at 1.8.  The models sure don't show anything good for the eastern upstate, but maybe today will be our day......or maybe not lol.

 

Edit:  Cape is nearing 3000 now and lift is up to -6.  Radar starting to light up to the west.  It better rain today!!!

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Looks to me like the storms are going to be perfectly positioned for me to get nada again.  Par for the course.  I think the HRRR and NAM is going nail this for mby.  If I just went by precip totals I would have thought we are still in NW flow because the same areas are getting left out again, even with SW flow.  What is causing this area to miss everything?  Can't be downsloping.

 

RNE62RD.gif

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Looks to me like the storms are going to be perfectly positioned for me to get nada again.  Par for the course.  I think the HRRR and NAM is going nail this for mby.  If I just went by precip totals I would have thought we are still in NW flow because the same areas are getting left out again, even with SW flow.  What is causing this area to miss everything?  Can't be downsloping.

If we don't something today, our chances go back down. Downsloping is back tomorrow to cut chances down and then the weekend looks dry. Maybe a chance next Mon with another front. The 12z GFS says we will be lucky to get .50 over the next 16 days.

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Radar is looking a little better.  It's filled in some, but the way things have gone when we were supposed to get rain, I have my doubts.  Mby seems to do better with lucky isolated storms than with any widespread rain events.  It has to be way back early in the year when a widespread event didn't underperform for mby.  Maybe this winter the opposite will be true and mby will be in the jackpot zone.  It has to even out eventually, right?

 

Edit:  Had another one of our famous 10 second shower.  Seems like somes storms are started to converge on mby.  This better not be another tease.

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May not look good in your backyard, but that radar looks pretty good in NC. 

 

Yep, same areas get rain over and over while the areas that are dry get nothing.  There has to be another underlying factor to my areas dryness.  Switching from NW to SW doesn't solve anything in this small region.  Almost all my rain this summer is just from lucky isolated storms.  If it weren't for those we would have about 2 or 3 inches of rain this entire summer.

 

The goods news is I can go jog and have 0% worry of getting caught in a storm.

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Poof!  Like always.  Not a single drop of rain.  Doesn't matter if we have SW flow, cape of a million, or wind shear at 100 kts.  Storms are going to evaporate in the eastern upstate and into NC.

 

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Wow at that spot in NW and N Central McDowell Co NC, That storms is just sitting there with training red echoes over the same area. Would love to see the rain amounts in that area.

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Whoever is getting anything is sure getting it good. The storms that just missed us at 2:00 are still just over the county line. Nothing is moving fast at all this evening, so even if you're just getting light showers, it 'appears' that they might be there a while. Better than zipping through at 55mph.

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It seems like just a few weeks ago you guys to the east were getting hammered every day, and we central-GA-ians could only sit and watch stuff bypass us - or worse, form right overhead but not drop anything before it crossed the county line.

 

Now we've been getting heavy afternoon storms, lots of water.  Today's had times where visibility was less than 20', cars hydroplaning, and high winds.  The last two miles went from "OK that's not something I like seeing right over my house, but at least it's not shot through with hail coloration" to white-knuckle drive in a couple of minutes.

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There's some spots in Cherokee County that haven't seen a drop of rain lol.  Just looked at the storm totals again....depressing.  There's about 4 or 5 counties around Spartanburg that are getting the shaft.  These are the same counties that have all summer.  Go take a look at the 90 day totals and compare to the totals the last few days.  The minima is almost identical for the areas around the upstate.

 

It rained 2 drops while I was jogging.  :violin: 

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