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August 2015 Observation thread.


NRVwxfan.

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That 2nd batch coming from GA is holding its on. Most of upstate SC may actually get .75-1 inch tonight with more in some spots. Now lets just hope I didn't jinx us.

Yeah, radar now near Anderson, looks like an "eye", pretty cool little feature! Atleast at night, you don't have to worry about the sun coming out and evaporating the rain we do get, as soon as it stops!
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Waiting for the deluge.

I'm waiting for this!!!

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGAND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. BE SURE TOSTAY ALERT FOR EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS...ANDNEVER DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
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Ughhh, I just took a look at the 6z NAM and it is pretty much dry in the lee.  Since when is the NAM the dry model?  Hopefully 12z will reverse course.  HRRR doesn't look too good for the upstate either.  In fact, it has mby as basically the only area in the upstate that doesn't get any rain at all.  GSP has us getting 0.50-1.00" today and tonight which is slightly less than what the WPC is saying.  I'm not too confident of seeing anything significant to be honest with how previous wet patterns have gone this summer.  I get more rain from blind luck isolated storms.  I call them BLIS. :)

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Ughhh, I just took a look at the 6z NAM and it is pretty much dry in the lee.  Since when is the NAM the dry model?  Hopefully 12z will reverse course.  HRRR doesn't look too good for the upstate either.  In fact, it has mby as basically the only area in the upstate that doesn't get any rain at all.  GSP has us getting 0.50-1.00" today and tonight which is slightly less than what the WPC is saying.  I'm not too confident of seeing anything significant to be honest with how previous wet patterns have gone this summer.  I get more rain from blind luck isolated storms.  I call them BLIS. :)

I'd bet anything that the 6z nam is right. We are going to have to hope something from the tropics can get in here. The WPC map has no chance of verifying for today.

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I'd bet anything that the 6z nam is right. We are going to have to hope something from the tropics can get in here. The WPC map has no chance of verifying for today.

 

12z is a little better for the upstate, but still just mostly around 0.25".  That blob in Alabama looks like it's going well north of this area.  I think we are going to have a hard time getting anything going with the cloudy skies.  Cape is crap and so is lift right now.  The only thing we have going for us are high PWATS, but if there is nothing to trigger the rain then what's the point?  GSP says cape is expected to be around 1500 today.

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RAH ~

AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT WHERE/WHAT/WHEN OF PRECIP TODAY... AS

EVERYTHING IS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE FEATURES (SOME DETECTED BY THE

MODELS AND OTHERS NOT SO MUCH) WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH

PW VALUES AOA 2.0 IN. THE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT

THIS MORNING AND THE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE THAT FORCED IT IS NOW

SHIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA... LEADING TO A RELATIVE LULL IN

COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NC. BUT THE ISOLATED THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS

COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS (INCLUDING A COUPLE

OF VORTICITY CENTERS OVER OUR FAR NW AND FAR SE CWA) AND THE MCV NOW

OVER NRN AL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS

AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS RAMPING BACK

UP TO 50-70% POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS

IS... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST... AND MID 80S SOUTH AND

EAST. -GIH

THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE

TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW

TRAVERSE THE AREA. LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

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RAH ~ AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT WHERE/WHAT/WHEN OF PRECIP TODAY... AS EVERYTHING IS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE FEATURES (SOME DETECTED BY THE MODELS AND OTHERS NOT SO MUCH) WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.0 IN. THE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AND THE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE THAT FORCED IT IS NOW SHIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA... LEADING TO A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NC. BUT THE ISOLATED THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS (INCLUDING A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS OVER OUR FAR NW AND FAR SE CWA) AND THE MCV NOW OVER NRN AL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS RAMPING BACK UP TO 50-70% POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS IS... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST... AND MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST. -GIH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE AREA. LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. 

 

Looks like 50% to 70% is going to be too ambitious.

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Looked good on approach on radar - then the yellows and oranges disappeared :( .08" so far.

 

Yep, once again the yellow, oranges, and reds are dissapearing as they approach mby.  Everything decent is going N of 85 in Spartanburg.  I'll be lucky to get a quarter inch total.  The gap in the rain is lining up perfectly for mby.

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