Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 For the first time all summer..some models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. As is usually the case, Pony tails will be blown off heads in N VT thru Maine..and the Berks will get crushed..But this time it does appear as if much of SNE right to the coast(who lead the league in severe wx this summer) will get in the action. Not much of a cool down..more of a Texas style dew or dry line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 For the first time all summer..models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. As is usually the case, Pony tails will be blown off heads in N VT thru Maine..and the Berks will get crushed..But this time it does appear as if much of SNE right to the coast(who lead the league in severe wx this summer) will get in the action. Not much of a cool down..more of a Texas style dew or dry line? Which model shows your scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 ? Which model shows your scenario. Have a look at some hi res guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Have a look at some hi res guidance ? looked at 4 km NAM, RGEM, congrats Berks NH Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 ? looked at 4 km NAM, RGEM, congrats Berks NH Maine Just wait and see then I suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Just wait and see then I suggest. I'd would like to see when you start a thread with the terms "models showing" you either give a link or post some shots so we can see what you are referencing instead of us having to go search what you are looking at. Not being a dick just opened this thread and thought hmm that is interesting, I'll will have to check it out. So I do and what do you know I see what appears to be a SameOleS scenario and sure enough when I reference my local NWS discussion that it was is shown. so if you have a link to the models you reference that would be nice. 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 If you don't know where to look..I'm not sure what to tell you. the mesos hitting this pretty hard 36 hours out is a good signal. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015072906&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2015072900&fh=45&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm®ion=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2015072900&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Go one time frame later. I'd favor your typical eastern NY, Berks into NNE. But, could see good cells make it to the CT river I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 Go one time frame later. I'd favor your typical eastern NY, Berks into NNE. But, could see good cells make it to the CT river I suppose. Yup..those areas always favored..especially in a down year for severe overall in New Eng..that was mentioned..but this one has legs farther east where you knew other ones didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Go one time frame later. I'd favor your typical eastern NY, Berks into NNE. But, could see good cells make it to the CT river I suppose. My point exactly , hopefully he gets a thunderstorm, as BOX says rain is the main threat with isolated thunderstorms with maybe a microburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Yup..those areas always favored..especially in a down year for severe overall in New Eng..that was mentioned..but this one has legs farther east where you knew other ones didn't. I don't see this in any of the links you posted, good luck For the first time all summer..some models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Yup..those areas always favored..especially in a down year for severe overall in New Eng..that was mentioned..but this one has legs farther east where you knew other ones didn't. I don't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 I don't agree. That's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 I like the area I'm staying in the foothills/ lakes region of Maine tommorrow. I may take a drive about 40 miles NW to the mountains if things look more promising out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 From BTV.... .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 414 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE THREATFOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYBY MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ISRATHER SHARP...SO THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT ASIT MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILLDESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE 60S. STILL EXPECTINGTHIS TO RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WHATCONTINUES TO STAND OUT IS THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THETOP OF THE COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO SUPPORT THEDEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THEINSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THISTIME...THINKING STORMS FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS ANDQUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REMAINDER OFVERMONT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG TO SEVERESTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 From SPC.... maybe slight risk tomorrow. ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Just give me the rain the 12km NAM is offering. You can keep the severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Just give me the rain the 12km NAM is offering. You can keep the severe. Looked better timed for severe in your area on the NAM. I saw that on tropicaltidbits that the 12k NAM really liked your area for the maxing out of the line tomorrow. Timing at 21z looked pretty perfect. It was more like 15-18z up here. Unfortunately the 4km NAM had absolutely nothing for my area down towards your area, lol. Just depends on what resolution we want to hump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 seems to be accurately reflecting the 0.01 for northfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Congrats Hippie, Pete and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 I could see some storms for DIT tomorrow, but looks like one of those setups rocking western MA/NW CT up into NNE. I'll enjoy my OVC300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 I could see some storms for DIT tomorrow, but looks like one of those setups rocking western MA/NW CT up into NNE. I'll enjoy my OVC300. I just want some rain..I'm skeptical of any storm here just the way the summer has gone in this area. I also won't be shocked if I end up with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 I just want some rain..I'm skeptical of any storm here just the way the summer has gone in this area. I also won't be shocked if I end up with nothing You had a wet stretch regardless up through early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2015 Author Share Posted July 29, 2015 You had a wet stretch regardless up through early July. So did everyone else though. And then it just stopped raining in much of Ct and has continued elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 So did everyone else though. And then it just stopped raining in much of Ct and has continued elsewhere Your comment implied it's been dry though. Maybe recently, but we had a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I fully anticipate the ole 7-10 again, Going for the trifecta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I fully anticipate the ole 7-10 again, Going for the trifecta Well--it's an awful lot easier to miss the strike zone than to nab the inside corner.... Dare I get up hope for a storm today? Not yet. Just watch how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Hopefully a day of damage for many..but we'll see how things play out. Window for big storms seems like 4-:8:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 At least football season is starting Looks pretty weak but hopefully Blizzard will get denuded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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