When will the 2012 Arctic ice extent minimum record be broken?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

A crapshoot. I see you also picked 19/20. Have to check back in a couple of weeks to see if we still have a shot at getting lucky (or unlucky).

Yeah I would have changed it to 2021-2025 if I could have voted again a couple years later.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

[lookingnorth]

It seems like there hasn't been dramatic ice melt in recent years, so I'm going with 2026 being the year the 2012 sea ice record gets broken.

I doubt there will be a minimum greater than 2013 in my lifetime, but if it happens I'm going with 2021.

Also whoever made this poll didn't consider that some of us are hoping to live past 2050. I'll only be 52 at the start of 2051.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We're doing pretty good this year with +AO..

[raindancewx]

The sea ice extent is below 2012 for July 15, but a tiny bit ahead of 2011. Will depend on how Aug/Sept play out.

For people talking about 2013...the 2014 minimum wasn't exactly far off from 2013. You guys have to remember, there will be a major volcanic eruption at some point in the next 20 years - we'll beat 2013 and 2014 for relatively high minimum extent with a volcano, especially if the AMO flips cold again. I look at 1992 as the limit for what is possible now - cold AMO, volcano (Pinatubo), 7.2m sq km min - up a million from 1991 - and it's not like 1991 was a hot AMO and 1992 was cold - it was probably the volcano. So a year like 2013 or 2014, with a colder Atlantic and a volcanic eruption? We beat 2013 in that year with a higher min.

[csnavywx]

22 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The sea ice extent is below 2012 for July 15, but a tiny bit ahead of 2011. Will depend on how Aug/Sept play out.

For people talking about 2013...the 2014 minimum wasn't exactly far off from 2013. You guys have to remember, there will be a major volcanic eruption at some point in the next 20 years - we'll beat 2013 and 2014 for relatively high minimum extent with a volcano, especially if the AMO flips cold again. I look at 1992 as the limit for what is possible now - cold AMO, volcano (Pinatubo), 7.2m sq km min - up a million from 1991 - and it's not like 1991 was a hot AMO and 1992 was cold - it was probably the volcano. So a year like 2013 or 2014, with a colder Atlantic and a volcanic eruption? We beat 2013 in that year with a higher min.

I'd be willing to bet we don't beat 2013 without a VEI 6 or strong VEI 5 tropical volcano. There was a significant step up in temperatures (globally) since 2013 and it featured some of the most benign weather possible in the Arctic (wall to wall +AO/NAO).

[chubbs]

With the favorable conditions we have had this year, am going to stick with my original prediction of 2019/20. Any other year is a crap shoot, or Russian roulette with the number of bullets slowly increasing. The 2012 volume anomaly minimum, around -8000000 km3, will be average in less than a decade.