MN Transplant Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 not good, but the HRRR has a clear bias to quickly mix out the PBL and initiate convection too easily and too early. The next version specifically targets that bias, and testing has been extremely encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 ^i see a cloud. maybe it will rain from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 not good, but the HRRR has a clear bias to quickly mix out the PBL and initiate convection too easily and too early. The next version specifically targets that bias, and testing has been extremely encouraging. That is good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Meanwhile, New England rocks. I do like the bowling ball of VIL headed across northern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've been planning on hiking Old Rag with my kids early Thursday. It's the best hike in our region by far and the weather has me concerned. Our plan is getting to the trail head by 7am and getting off the mountain by 1pm or so. Rain on the descent is fine but definitely not across the top of the ridge on the rock scramble. The location is just south of Sperryville on the east side of the blue ridge. It still looks like a doable window but I'm not liking how close the timing is with rain moving in down that way. Any met thoughts on precip onset? It would really suck to have to call it off. It would suck even worse to get turned around on the trail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Snuck up on me, making a run at the hottest day of the year. 93.8. Have only topped out at 94.0 so far. 95 @ DCA 90 @ IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've been planning on hiking Old Rag with my kids early Thursday. It's the best hike in our region by far and the weather has me concerned. Our plan is getting to the trail head by 7am and getting off the mountain by 1pm or so. Rain on the descent is fine but definitely not across the top of the ridge on the rock scramble. The location is just south of Sperryville on the east side of the blue ridge. It still looks like a doable window but I'm not liking how close the timing is with rain moving in down that way. Any met thoughts on precip onset? It would really suck to have to call it off. It would suck even worse to get turned around on the trail though. Could just bypass the rock scramble by going up the other side of the loop. You'll also enjoy a lot more shade on that side of the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Snuck up on me, making a run at the hottest day of the year. 93.8. Have only topped out at 94.0 so far. 95 @ DCA 90 @ IAD 91 / 68 here. It's even worse than yesterday. Sizable forecast bust, at least based on last night's forecast for today. We can always pull a surprise 90F out of our ***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Could just bypass the rock scramble by going up the other side of the loop. You'll also enjoy a lot more shade on that side of the mountain. The scramble is the whole reason were going. My kids love that stuff. Temps and clouds look ideal for an August hike. Just need to avoid the rain. Too bad the hike isn't located in Stephens City. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I've been planning on hiking Old Rag with my kids early Thursday. It's the best hike in our region by far and the weather has me concerned. Our plan is getting to the trail head by 7am and getting off the mountain by 1pm or so. Rain on the descent is fine but definitely not across the top of the ridge on the rock scramble. The location is just south of Sperryville on the east side of the blue ridge. It still looks like a doable window but I'm not liking how close the timing is with rain moving in down that way. Any met thoughts on precip onset? It would really suck to have to call it off. It would suck even worse to get turned around on the trail though. http://www.climbingweather.com/Virginia/Old-Rag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The scramble is the whole reason were going. My kids love that stuff. Temps and clouds look ideal for an August hike. Just need to avoid the rain. Too bad the hike isn't located in Stephens City. LOL. Hiking up sand dunes is hard work, and not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The scramble is the whole reason were going. My kids love that stuff. Temps and clouds look ideal for an August hike. Just need to avoid the rain. Too bad the hike isn't located in Stephens City. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 How much for Rockville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 90 hot blec. dog days are here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 89 for the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 90 hot blec. dog days are here LMAO you always have the best meme's. Today felt like one of the hottest days of the year. Work wasn't fun today. Hopefully these storms building to the west can get into the area and cool things off. 91 in my area. It was 95 at the National Harbor about a hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 rain and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Thundershower with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Look, the Calvert split from last year is back! Look at that cell going through Lexington Park and the cell that's gonna fringe everyone south of Dunkirk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 LOL at that map. Germandesert will be lucky to get that amount of rain for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 LOL at that map. Germandesert will be lucky to get that amount of rain for the month. Yeah, there is as much chance of me seeing 2" of rain as there is me seeing 2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 HPC thoughts thru Monday. Looks like there on the northern part of current guidance.Looks like their call from 2/1/10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 will be interesting to see what they do now that the 00z NAM and GFS have come in really dry, with the GFS basically having 0 in DC. SREF looks wet for now; we'll see what the overnight Euro shows. HPC thoughts thru Monday. Looks like there on the northern part of current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 GGEM was pretty dry as well.. you have to go south of EZF toward RIC for the heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 8/4: 0.04 Monthly total: 0.04" Seasonal total: 6.18" .04 inches of rain in the past 8 days. Grass is fried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 8/4: 0.04 Monthly total: 0.04" Seasonal total: 6.18" .04 inches of rain in the past 8 days. Grass is fried. Haha! You are beating me so far for the month. After over 6.25 for the month of July, calendar turned and spigot was slammed shut.....0.00 for month so far here. HHH is back though, 88.1 high yesterday and 66.4 low this am, currently 68.8/65.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 8/4: 0.04 Monthly total: 0.04" Seasonal total: 6.18" .04 inches of rain in the past 8 days. Grass is fried. Not a drop yesterday. ~1.25" since July 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Hardly any rain yesterday, but the stormy skies made for a nice sunset. As stated above, GFS is dry for the weekend rain. Does get rain in here Days 5-7. A good soaker area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Haha! You are beating me so far for the month. After over 6.25 for the month of July, calendar turned and spigot was slammed shut.....0.00 for month so far here. HHH is back though, 88.1 high yesterday and 66.4 low this am, currently 68.8/65.7. 91F here yesterday and another warm start this morning. The "cool down" is getting less cool with each day. I see my forecast for Sunday is already up to 85F, as is tomorrow (which, of course, will probably verify warmer than that). Once the rain completely disappears from the forecast for Friday, that high will jump as well. Not a drop yesterday. ~1.25" since July 9th. That's pretty dry, even dryer than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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