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August 2015 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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Lows, DCA 65, BWI 56, IAD 58, comfortable out. Looks like it could get hot out (Upper 80s to Mid 90s) for a week or so starting Sunday. GFS pumping out 90s everyday next week. GGEM and Euro are not as sure. I would go with Euro here. I really question this new GFS, latest run brings DC proper 90 or above every day from Sunday until the end of the run, 4 days in the 95-97 degree range, and it also even gets Boston into the Mid to Upper 90s.

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Lows, DCA 65, BWI 56, IAD 58, comfortable out. Looks like it could get hot out (Upper 80s to Mid 90s) for a week or so starting Sunday. GFS pumping out 90s everyday next week. GGEM and Euro are not as sure. I would go with Euro here. I really question this new GFS, latest run brings DC proper 90 or above every day from Sunday until the end of the run, 4 days in the 95-97 degree range, and it also even gets Boston into the Mid to Upper 90s.

The operational GFS has been too high with max temps at mid and long range all summer.

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The current warm pattern has some legs it seems. Ensembles hold the general ridge east and lowest heights in the pac nw for the next 10 days. Gefs does break it down during the d10-15 range but that's way to far down the line to even think about.

We may not get our first substantial sept Canadian air mass until the second half of the month. That would kinda suck but warm early septs are really common here for whatever reason.

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1.13" for August.  I'm a little worried that some of my grass is dead, not dormant.

I've seen a number of dead trees in the city lately. Not sure it's fully related but perhaps it helped push them along. 

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0.96" for August here... Ironically that's less than I saw last August in Nevada...

Thanks for bringing the desert climate back east with you Ray. Did you bring scorpions too?

 

I don't mention in it being dry anymore in the Philly thread, whenever I do people jump on me like it's crazy talk. I raised my pumpkin crop primarily on two 20-30 minute 1" rain showers this year. There hasn't been a bonafide showery wet day here since June.

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