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August 2015 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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   hard to say.   to get the big totals, you needed to get in on the pre-frontal action earlier.   But that line to the west is moving into a moist and unstable atmosphere around DC.   The progressive nature of the line will likely prevent really big totals (and the HRRR QPF is *not* impressive), but it's tough to ignore the PWs.    And the HRRR keeps instability around through 2am or so, and some of the runs want to initiate a final round on the cold front just after midnight.

 

  

We should(?) get some rain but I doubt it will be very much around here.

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   hard to say.   to get the big totals, you needed to get in on the pre-frontal action earlier.   But that line to the west is moving into a moist and unstable atmosphere around DC.   The progressive nature of the line will likely prevent really big totals (and the HRRR QPF is *not* impressive), but it's tough to ignore the PWs.    And the HRRR keeps instability around through 2am or so, and some of the runs want to initiate a final round on the cold front just after midnight.

yeah I think the first line will hit us to some degree but it's going to be thin and moving relatively fast. second one might be phantom if history is any guide. NAM was always fairly cautious on the big totals down here.. it focused more northern MD and north whereas the GFS and Euro had widespread 1-1.5" event or so for the whole area. 

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