Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The realistic think to expect here is nothing at all, or two or three storms getting us close to the average of 6 inches of snow. What really happens here is anyone's guess. I think it is fun seeing if these long range forecasts work out. And maybe we will actually have a big winter. Just have to wait and see, expect nothing at all to average, and maybe we will get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The realistic think to expect here is nothing at all, or two or three storms getting us close to the average of 6 inches of snow. What really happens here is anyone's guess. I think it is fun seeing if these long range forecasts work out. And maybe we will actually have a big winter. Just have to wait and see, expect nothing at all to average, and maybe we will get more. Bricknowledge That's some deep stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Would like to chime in because I believe I will be in the SE camp this winter. Just be prepared for an elevation winter, even more so south of the VA border (2,000ft+?). Expecting a few days with thunderstorms as well. The usual and unusual caveats accounted for, massive precipitation amounts across the board tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 My guess not prediction is that this winter will be average to above average precip and normal temperatures for the charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Would like to chime in because I believe I will be in the SE camp this winter. Just be prepared for an elevation winter, even more so south of the VA border (2,000ft+?). Expecting a few days with thunderstorms as well. The usual and unusual caveats accounted for, massive precipitation amounts across the board tho. The analog years actually provide most average to above average snow totals; but as discussed in previous post there may be a higher chance that storms run in-land giving western zones greater amounts. **this basically goes along with what you said about elevation (or maybe it should be how far west one is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Torch??? No! I would like a snowfall of at least 12" and many other storms to track, with an extended warm period never on the table. We wait all year for winter. One storm is not worth it IMO. Lots of cold and winter events and threats and at least one big storm is the ONLY way to go. I want one 6"+ storm per week from the first week of December until the last week of March. That's all I ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The realistic think to expect here is nothing at all, or two or three storms getting us close to the average of 6 inches of snow. What really happens here is anyone's guess. I think it is fun seeing if these long range forecasts work out. And maybe we will actually have a big winter. Just have to wait and see, expect nothing at all to average, and maybe we will get more. Nothing at all isn't a very realistic prediction for a city like Raleigh, where a yearly snowfall is a near certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The analog years actually provide most average to above average snow totals; but as discussed in previous post there may be a higher chance that storms run in-land giving western zones greater amounts. **this basically goes along with what you said about elevation (or maybe it should be how far west one is). One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. Holy can of worms...GW discussion can cause riots in here :-) I don't buy GW at all for for lower snowfall totals. Yes, for RDU we are at our worst 10/20/30 year snowfall averages over the past 130+ years but it was peaked at a low point in the early 50's and it rebounded the next 30 or so years. We now are on the tail end of another down cycle. We won't be able to figure out who is right or wrong for many years so we will see. I am firm believer of weather working in cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. This will not end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 This will not end well. The vllagers are gathering their pitchforks XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The problem with the global warming argument is that I believe the Southeastern US has seen very little warming since 1900 compared to most areas of the globe. EDIT: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83624 The colors on the map show temperature changes throughout the past 22 years (1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average, and compared to the 1951-1980 average for Alaska and Hawaii. Looks like this site would claim cooling in portions of the SE over the last century. http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/climate/GCremote3.html Of course, changes in wintertime precipitation patterns are probably more important, anyways, and I am not sure how those have changed. Looks like at least NC/SC is a little drier recently, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. Things go in cycles, but this is a fair point IMO. We are a little warmer and less snowy in this area compared to say the late 1800's. However, I don't see an issue with using late 1800's analogs for overall 500mb pattern comparisons. Plus, when you make a seasonal forecast, it's against the current 30 year normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Things go in cycles, but this is a fair point IMO. We are a little warmer and less snowy in this area compared to say the late 1800's. However, I don't see an issue with using late 1800's analogs for overall 500mb pattern comparisons. Plus, when you make a seasonal forecast, it's against the current 30 year normals. Yea, I agree with the synoptic setup being compared. But it should be understood that the temperature will be warmer than the analog year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Nothing at all isn't a very realistic prediction for a city like Raleigh, where a yearly snowfall is a near certainty. True, but still better to expect nothing than to expect above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 One thing that should be noted is that analog's are becoming less useful. I hate to talk about this on the weather forum, but since this is climo i am. Global Warming is reducing snowfall overall for all of NC at a fast pace. So previous decades "snowfall analogs" should be used with caution because if the same pattern shows up, it will be warmer than the analog year. Definitely a slippery slop. While Global Warming is recognized/accepted as effecting the global environment(..warmer world) how it effects regional areas is unknown. Most think that some areas will actually cool as greater areas warm. Some even think the eastern US and western Europe will be the cooler areas in an otherwise warmer world (if current research stands). So I would say using exact historic values from analog years is better(at this point) than attempting to add or subtract for GW. As others have joked, this really could be "Historic, epic, biblical" (..big snow year). But that still would not prove or disprove GW on our environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Nothing at all isn't a very realistic prediction for a city like Raleigh, where a yearly snowfall is a near certainty. Yes, highly unusual to have "0" snowfall for our area (#KOD). Will say that for strong+ ENSO's it favors above average snowfall for our area. I won't even bring up how we do in winters following back to back Nino's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Definitely a slippery slop. While Global Warming is recognized/accepted as effecting the global environment(..warmer world) how it effects regional areas is unknown. Most think that some areas will actually cool as greater areas warm. Some even think the eastern US and western Europe will be the cooler areas in an otherwise warmer world (if current research stands). So I would say using exact historic values from analog years is better(at this point) than attempting to add or subtract for GW. As others have joked, this really could be "Historic, epic, biblical" (..big snow year). But that still would not prove or disprove GW on our environment. I am going to take Charlotte for example. Global warming has increased Charlotte's temperature and thus decreased the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Yes, highly unusual to have "0" snowfall for our area (#KOD). Will say that for strong+ ENSO's it favors above average snowfall for our area. I won't even bring up how we do in winters following back to back Nino's... Why not? Go ahead and tell us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I am going to take Charlotte for example. Global warming has increased Charlotte's temperature and thus decreased the snowfall. What is that line? Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's. You can see the cyclical nature of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 January 88 is my favorite storm of all time to date!! 15 inches of powder and 1/4 inch glaze on top! Temps in the teens the whole time! Greenville definitely cashed in on that one. It was a very cold storm too, 17 degrees that day at mid-afternoon. I would say we haven't really seen one as good as that one since then, and what is that now......about 27 or 28 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is that line? Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's. You can see the cyclical nature of it. Looks like it's time for things to start trending upwards again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is that line? Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's. You can see the cyclical nature of it. I did this one for Charlotte a few years ago. Any 30 year avg that includes the decade of the 90's is going to take a hit, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is that line? Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's. You can see the cyclical nature of it. Yes, there is a 30 year cycle. Notice at the bottom of this cycle there is less snowfall than the bottom of the last cycle, And we dont even know if we hit the bottom of this cycle yet. This is due to the human forcing on the climate system. The climate tires to compensate for anthropocentric gasses, but is unable to do so. Human gas emissions Radiative forcing is far greater than natural forcing's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 ^ It looks like Charlotte stays one inch behind Raleigh through the years....kind of like the number of outer belt loops Yes, there is a 30 year cycle. Notice at the bottom of this cycle there is less snowfall than the bottom of the last cycle, And we dont even know if we hit the bottom of this cycle yet. This is due to the human forcing on the climate system. The climate tires to compensate for anthropocentric gasses, but is unable to do so. Human gas emissions Radiative forcing if far greater than natural forcing's. Now this is definitely better suited for the clim chg board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is that line? Plot a 30 year running average...below is RDU's 30 year running average going back to the 1880's. You can see the cyclical nature of it. What other environmental factor(s) run in a 30 year cycle, whose start and end dates generally correlate to the 30 year segments in your graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I did this one for Charlotte a few years ago. Any 30 year avg that includes the decade of the 90's is going to take a hit, lol Thanks for posting, as I suspected. Not blaming a tough 90's on GW, looks very cyclical to me. I would be shocked if we don't see a change for the better for our 30 year averages in the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What other environmental factor(s) run in a 30 year cycle, whose start and end dates generally correlate to the 30 year segments in your graph? The NAO was predominately negative from the mid-50's to the mid-80's and has been predominately positive since, as we all know all too well. I don't have the NAO pre-1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What other environmental factor(s) run in a 30 year cycle, whose start and end dates generally correlate to the 30 year segments in your graph? If someone was to list all the factors it would take entire page. And my graph pulled data directly off of NWS and even when i manipulated the data to exclude the outliers a definitive decrease in snowfall was observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What other environmental factor(s) run in a 30 year cycle, whose start and end dates generally correlate to the 30 year segments in your graph? The Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.