Winter 15-16 Discussion

[packbacker]

When comparing previous runs of the JAMSTEC the NE pac isn't cooling as much...

 

 

[griteater]

Jul PDO from Univ of Wash was 1.84.  That's the 9th highest Jul reading out of 116 years.  We are firmly entrenched right now in a ++El Nino / ++PDO regime.  May not be optimal/perfect for the SE, but it sure as heck beats --La Nina / --PDO for winter

[CherokeeGA]

WxSouth put some interesting comments up on his Facebook page a few days ago.

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxsouth/snowy-winter-in-near-appalachians/1111862635510457

[FallsLake]

WxSouth put some interesting comments up on his Facebook page a few days ago.

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxsouth/snowy-winter-in-near-appalachians/1111862635510457

Specifically for the RDU area, those analog years are good but they do have some hart breaking missises to our west. So it looks like there could be better chances of in-land running storm tracks; in an otherwise great pattern.  

 

There is one storm from 1987 that I would love to see (all sleet):

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.frozen.19870217.gif

[superjames1992]

Specifically for the RDU area, those analog years are good but they do have some hart breaking missises to our west. So it looks like there could be better chances of in-land running storm tracks; in an otherwise great pattern.  

 

There is one storm from 1987 that I would love to see (all sleet):

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.frozen.19870217.gif

 

I'd love to see a carbon copy repeat of this one from '87.

 

 

(I kid, I kid before Brick goes ballistic)

[FallsLake]

I'd love to see a carbon copy repeat of this one from '87.

 

 

(I kid, I kid before Brick goes ballistic)

No thanks....That's one of those hart breaking misses for RDU.

[Upstate Tiger]

No thanks....That's one of those hart breaking misses for RDU.

 

I didn't realize RDU missed that one.  That was one of my favorites for GSP.  Started to snow big heavy silver dollar flakes about 700PM with temp of 37 degrees.  I was working 3rd shift and it snowed all night and temp fell into the 20's.  Got home in a 4WD vehicle about 700AM the next morning.  Thundersnow started about 730AM and lasted until about 1000AM.  Wound up with 10" IMBY.  Brutal cold followed for about a week.  Classic Miller A with snow line moving south and east.

[FallsLake]

I didn't realize RDU missed that one.  That was one of my favorites for GSP.  Started to snow big heavy silver dollar flakes about 700PM with temp of 37 degrees.  I was working 3rd shift and it snowed all night and temp fell into the 20's.  Got home in a 4WD vehicle about 700AM the next morning.  Thundersnow started about 730AM and lasted until about 1000AM.  Wound up with 10" IMBY.  Brutal cold followed for about a week.  Classic Miller A with snow line moving south and east.

RDU's easterly location can help it for off shore or late developing storms; but the location kills us for most in-land tracking storms.  

[sparklecity]

I'll take a January 87-88 repeat thank you very much!  10.2" storm in 1987 and 12.0" in 1988 at GSP.  I've got billion to 1 odds that doesn't happen again in my lifetime though.

[Brick Tamland]

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[No snow for you]

I'll take a January 87-88 repeat thank you very much!  10.2" storm in 1987 and 12.0" in 1988 at GSP.  I've got billion to 1 odds that doesn't happen again in my lifetime though.

I will bet you a dollar it does with those odds. 

[packbacker]

Specifically for the RDU area, those analog years are good but they do have some hart breaking missises to our west. So it looks like there could be better chances of in-land running storm tracks; in an otherwise great pattern.  

 

There is one storm from 1987 that I would love to see (all sleet):

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.frozen.19870217.gif

Par for the course...past 10 years we have missed winter storm after winter storm N/S/E/W. I would expect a continuation of this.

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth put some interesting comments up on his Facebook page a few days ago.

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxsouth/snowy-winter-in-near-appalachians/1111862635510457

 

Good read. Here is the brief summary.

 

My early inclination at this point , based on the drought, how it has been, how the ridge has shifted between Texas to Carolinas and the anomalous northwest flow pattern and lack of Bermuda ridging, combined with a ton of other factors I can't list here, are leading me to think that possibly a very stormy Winter is upcoming.  When the switch in the pattern occurs is usually around November or December.  That's when the overrunning cool rains usually materialize in the Southeast, with damming east winds and far south tracking low pressure systems.

 

One of the couple of most similar analogs so far (again broadly speaking from a flow and SST standpoint) is the 86/87 and 02/03, and maybe 09/10 Winters, when the Nino came on suddenly ending a hot and dry-ish pattern. And the Appalachians and immediate east and west sides of the chain saw well above snows and ice events.

 

So based on the number of Gulf systems this Winter, not even counting the chances for Greenland Blocking, I think an active storm track from the Texas Gulf Coast, up the Eastern Seaboard is in the offing. Now if blocking in Greenland were to truly develop, then I think an Historic Winter would erupt down south. We are in a weird state of affairs as far as the PDO , the blocking signals and the forecast strength of the PDO and the Nino this time. A weird alignment where anything is possible but in the worst forecast, it would actually forecast extreme cold + extreme precip.....which would equate to an 1800's time line in Winter in the South---something we've never seen down south in our lifetimes. I"m not going to say we're headed there, obviously. But the indices are quite unusual right now (again though things can change by December).

 

One of the spots I'm highlighting so far is the uplands of the Southeast and interior MidAtlantic.  

Roughly, this region:

 

 

[jshetley]

No thanks....That's one of those hart breaking misses for RDU.

How about a storm like that one that has its rain-snow line about 75 miles to the east. That 1987 storm gave me around 7 inches of snow. 

[jshetley]

I'll take a January 87-88 repeat thank you very much!  10.2" storm in 1987 and 12.0" in 1988 at GSP.  I've got billion to 1 odds that doesn't happen again in my lifetime though.

We probably won't see another one like the Jan 1988 storm for a long long time, but a storm like Jan 1987 is possible. Got around 7 inches here, but it should have been more. We got caught in a dryslot much of that night.

[mackerel_sky]

January 88 is my favorite storm of all time to date!! 15 inches of powder and 1/4 inch glaze on top! Temps in the teens the whole time!

[mackerel_sky]

Maybe JBuns can tell us about those 1800's winters and how bad they were! So we know what Robert is referring to!

[sparklecity]

88 was my first and best snow memory lol.  Who knew my first one would be the best one.  It stuck around forever too.  I'm just biding my time until the next Maunder Minimum haha.

[lookingnorth]

No thanks....That's one of those hart breaking misses for RDU.

That February would have been pretty good, though. RDU got 10" from two storms that month.

[FallsLake]

That February would have been pretty good, though. RDU got 10" from two storms that month.

 

All three analog years Robert posted were good (to even above) years for RDU overall. I just think the big winners this year will be the western areas. More Miller A storms with small transition zones; compared to Miller B storms with a large transition from snow to ice and then rain (which keeps more in the game).   

[Met1985]

All three analog years Robert posted were good (to even above) years for RDU overall. I just think the big winners this year will be the western areas. More Miller A storms with small transition zones; compared to Miller B storms with a large transition from snow to ice and then rain (which keeps more in the game).

Could be right especially if we see less cold from up north.

[Solak]

And then there's this ~ just posted...

 

 

NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center shared U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)'s photo.

9 mins ·

Keep hearing about El Niño and not sure what it means? Here's a great graphic that shows what typically happens during the winter in an El Niño pattern.

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)

This map shows typical El Niño influences on U.S. winter weather, but nothing is guaranteed. Even if El Niño brings above-average precipitation to California this winter, it won't be enough to eradicate four years of drought.

[FallsLake]

Could be right especially if we see less cold from up north.

 

We're pretty sure we'll get the southern flow; we just need that blocking to be in our favor this year. Then get a pattern of strong highs locking to our north and we'll be in business.   

[CherokeeGA]

I'll take a January 87-88 repeat thank you very much!  10.2" storm in 1987 and 12.0" in 1988 at GSP.  I've got billion to 1 odds that doesn't happen again in my lifetime though.

 

I was there in Spartanburg for the 87 one.  It was such a gorgeous powdery snow, just beautiful.  I haven't really seen a snow quite like that since.  

 

We got about 8" here in my by in 2010, but it had thick layers of ice in it and was hard as a brick Brick's head.

[stadiumwave]

And then there's this ~ just posted...

NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center shared U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)'s photo.

9 mins ·

Keep hearing about El Niño and not sure what it means? Here's a great graphic that shows what typically happens during the winter in an El Niño pattern.

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)

This map shows typical El Niño influences on U.S. winter weather, but nothing is guaranteed. Even if El Niño brings above-average precipitation to California this winter, it won't be enough to eradicate four years of drought.

Useless map. Every El Nino is different & this one definitEly is.

[Met1985]

We're pretty sure we'll get the southern flow; we just need that blocking to be in our favor this year. Then get a pattern of strong highs locking to our north and we'll be in business.

Agreed we really need good blocking in such a strong Nino.

[Brick Tamland]

Another post from WxSouth on Facebook last night. Sounds like he thinks the Gulf of Alaska staying warm is the key. It could be the difference in getting a huge winter with a lot of storms, or nothing at all.

 

Since there's not a lot going on, I've had a lot of free time lately to look at a lot of data on the Nino. I already posted two Summer hints on FB about how I think the Winter ** could *** go. Now, I'm uploading a huge update to my paid customers with tons of data. This one is pretty unique ,and I strongly believe an extremely unusual Winter is going to occur. But it could be like the 1997-98 one.There's probably no "in between". Its likely one extreme or the other. (I can easily be wrong though). However, that is the second option, in my opinion. The first few major analog years I am leaning to right now, and have been a while now, are 86/87, 02/03, 09/10 and 1986/87 years...so there's a reason I painted above normal snows in the Apps for sure. How far south to go with it?? As always, it's a guess, until we see patterns evolve in the Winter.

So far though, the Nino is stronger than forecast...and it is forecast to keep on getting stronger. The models have missed it by a sizeable chunk. The key, in my opinion, as to whether we see no cold air come down (97/98) or whether we see a lot of cold air come down (the last 2 Winters, and what usually happens in most Ninos) will be what happens in the northern Pacific Ocean with that warm Gulf of Alaska. As I mentioned above (and last 2 Winters ) Usually, the warmer oceans lend to colder continents. So keep a close eye on that animation of Sea Surface Temps in the Pacific. If the warm anomaly holds south of Alaska once again, then a deep central and eastern US trough will be very likely. And with a strong Nino in place, the top analog years of above come into play ....Snow, Ice and storms, one right after another....even Atlanta and Birmingham gets into that sometimes, with close calls on temps, but the mountains and immediate sides of Apps chain get hammered with several Big snow and Ice storms. Lots of overrunning cold rain events for mid South overall.

 

The bottom line now is that it's August (but even if it were December, Most Winter forecasts are still major guesswork, imo). But if we continue to see a warm Pacific like this, (how much upwelling this Fall?),then I think odds are pretty high for a very memorable Winter in the regions I've already outlined. A strong Positive PDO combined with Strong Nino are rare (and I'm well aware of the relationship of the PDO and Nino/nina)... Some of the model forecast 5H maps I've seen forecast this Winter are incredible--and would actually hope not to happen, as it would be a major hardship on folks.... I will continue to post on the overall trends about Winter, and have a lot of maps, images and data (as well as a preliminary forecast) at my site www.wxsouth.com

[mackerel_sky]

Another post from WxSouth on Facebook last night. Sounds like he thinks the Gulf of Alaska staying warm is the key. It could be the difference in getting a huge winter with a lot of storms, or nothing at all.

Since there's not a lot going on, I've had a lot of free time lately to look at a lot of data on the Nino. I already posted two Summer hints on FB about how I think the Winter ** could *** go. Now, I'm uploading a huge update to my paid customers with tons of data. This one is pretty unique ,and I strongly believe an extremely unusual Winter is going to occur. But it could be like the 1997-98 one.There's probably no "in between". Its likely one extreme or the other. (I can easily be wrong though). However, that is the second option, in my opinion. The first few major analog years I am leaning to right now, and have been a while now, are 86/87, 02/03, 09/10 and 1986/87 years...so there's a reason I painted above normal snows in the Apps for sure. How far south to go with it?? As always, it's a guess, until we see patterns evolve in the Winter.

So far though, the Nino is stronger than forecast...and it is forecast to keep on getting stronger. The models have missed it by a sizeable chunk. The key, in my opinion, as to whether we see no cold air come down (97/98) or whether we see a lot of cold air come down (the last 2 Winters, and what usually happens in most Ninos) will be what happens in the northern Pacific Ocean with that warm Gulf of Alaska. As I mentioned above (and last 2 Winters ) Usually, the warmer oceans lend to colder continents. So keep a close eye on that animation of Sea Surface Temps in the Pacific. If the warm anomaly holds south of Alaska once again, then a deep central and eastern US trough will be very likely. And with a strong Nino in place, the top analog years of above come into play ....Snow, Ice and storms, one right after another....even Atlanta and Birmingham gets into that sometimes, with close calls on temps, but the mountains and immediate sides of Apps chain get hammered with several Big snow and Ice storms. Lots of overrunning cold rain events for mid South overall.

The bottom line now is that it's August (but even if it were December, Most Winter forecasts are still major guesswork, imo). But if we continue to see a warm Pacific like this, (how much upwelling this Fall?),then I think odds are pretty high for a very memorable Winter in the regions I've already outlined. A strong Positive PDO combined with Strong Nino are rare (and I'm well aware of the relationship of the PDO and Nino/nina)... Some of the model forecast 5H maps I've seen forecast this Winter are incredible--and would actually hope not to happen, as it would be a major hardship on folks.... I will continue to post on the overall trends about Winter, and have a lot of maps, images and data (as well as a preliminary forecast) at my site www.wxsouth.com

Can't wait for my 1800s like winter redux!!

[Cold Rain]

Can't wait for my 1800s like winter redux!!

Historic!

[LithiaWx]

Historic!

Epic