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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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I just showed we want a cold Oct :-)

Analogs like this are never wrong....or are they....

 

It seems a cold early to mid October is ok. It's when we get a pattern flip where it turns cold the end of October (with > chance of storm) into the mid to late part November is bad. Everybody gets excited that we're getting cold (and even some snow) weather before Thanksgiving but then the pattern flips to a warmer pattern by early December; which seems to lock in for a long duration. No science to back what I say just observations over many years (of disappointments).

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Today's August release of Euro seasonal says...

Too bad we can't post the full new DJF Euro seasonal which I heard looks great.

Strong ridging in NW and Central Canada with above normal precip from the

Gulf right up the East Coast. The ridge is so strong that it forces the STJ

further south than normal in the West for a strong El Nino. This run restricts the

heaviest precip to Southern California with dryness from Central California north

through the PAC NW were rainfall is much needed. Not to different from the

CPC DJF forecast, NMME, and CA Tool.

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LOL...it should be illegal to post what JB said this morning about the Euro seasonal...the words snowy/south/east was in the discussion.

I'll be buying my snow chains next week then. (Massive sarcastic overtones)

I lost any faith, and quite a bit of respect for JB several years back.

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It seems a cold early to mid October is ok. It's when we get a pattern flip where it turns cold the end of October (with > chance of storm) into the mid to late part November is bad. Everybody gets excited that we're getting cold (and even some snow) weather before Thanksgiving but then the pattern flips to a warmer pattern by early December; which seems to lock in for a long duration. No science to back what I say just observations over many years (of disappointments).

 

Yes, the rubber band has to snap back sometime. We saw last year that cold in November just means a switch to warm sometime down the road to even things out. We know there is no way we are going to get wall to wall cold from November to March. I would rather have a normal to warm November, even December, so it can switch over to cold later on in winter when it can actually get cold enough for snow. 

 

We didn't have the late fall severe weather last November like we usually have, either. I wonder if there is some correlation to having some severe storms in November and how active things will be in the winter. 

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To be honest, I dont like the odds. We've had two torchy Decembers that we recovered from back to back.

We very well may avg above normal for both temps and snow this winter. Even in 98 RDU had 3" of snow and that was a blow torch end to end.

I am not sold on the NE pac completely flipping but we will see. If it holds somewhat it could get nuts...

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To be honest, I dont like the odds. We've had two torchy Decembers that we recovered from back to back.

Last January and February was touch and go. We had some cold and some snow but nothing really impressive at least here in the western part of the state. I'm just wondering how many more winters will the nao allude us from going negative for a good bit of winter.
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It's far too early to be speculating oceanic occilations. Models and "winter forecasts" should only be taken for entertainment value until mid-october.

Yep...all we know now is we are under a strengthening Nino with a really warm NE PAC. ATL is cooling off...

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