packbacker Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 I guess we will know come mid-October if we are going to get 92/98 or something we can work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 We do not want a cold Oct or Nov .... We want winter in winter .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 We do not want a cold Oct or Nov .... We want winter in winter .... Give me a cold November with snow and i'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 We do not want a cold Oct or Nov .... We want winter in winter .... I just showed we want a cold Oct :-)Analogs like this are never wrong....or are they.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 All in out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 ^ Haha, that's more like it, James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 I just showed we want a cold Oct :-) Analogs like this are never wrong....or are they.... It seems a cold early to mid October is ok. It's when we get a pattern flip where it turns cold the end of October (with > chance of storm) into the mid to late part November is bad. Everybody gets excited that we're getting cold (and even some snow) weather before Thanksgiving but then the pattern flips to a warmer pattern by early December; which seems to lock in for a long duration. No science to back what I say just observations over many years (of disappointments). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 We want a cold Oct and torch Dec, a Hawaiian type Xmas....going to be a long/scary December if the snowy analogs come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 If it's illegal to post surgery pics on here, it should be illegal to post analogs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 If it's illegal to post surgery pics on here, it should be illegal to post analogs! LOL...it should be illegal to post what JB said this morning about the Euro seasonal...the words snowy/south/east was in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 After last winter, I certainly don't have any expectations set for this winter. Even with all this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 Today's August release of Euro seasonal says... Too bad we can't post the full new DJF Euro seasonal which I heard looks great. Strong ridging in NW and Central Canada with above normal precip from the Gulf right up the East Coast. The ridge is so strong that it forces the STJ further south than normal in the West for a strong El Nino. This run restricts the heaviest precip to Southern California with dryness from Central California north through the PAC NW were rainfall is much needed. Not to different from the CPC DJF forecast, NMME, and CA Tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 LOL...it should be illegal to post what JB said this morning about the Euro seasonal...the words snowy/south/east was in the discussion. I'll be buying my snow chains next week then. (Massive sarcastic overtones) I lost any faith, and quite a bit of respect for JB several years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It seems a cold early to mid October is ok. It's when we get a pattern flip where it turns cold the end of October (with > chance of storm) into the mid to late part November is bad. Everybody gets excited that we're getting cold (and even some snow) weather before Thanksgiving but then the pattern flips to a warmer pattern by early December; which seems to lock in for a long duration. No science to back what I say just observations over many years (of disappointments). Yes, the rubber band has to snap back sometime. We saw last year that cold in November just means a switch to warm sometime down the road to even things out. We know there is no way we are going to get wall to wall cold from November to March. I would rather have a normal to warm November, even December, so it can switch over to cold later on in winter when it can actually get cold enough for snow. We didn't have the late fall severe weather last November like we usually have, either. I wonder if there is some correlation to having some severe storms in November and how active things will be in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Finally NMME page updated:DJF Temp AnomaliesHere was last months update:Here's the updated SST's:Here's last months update:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I'll take the NASA GEOS5 for $1,000,000, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Hold on to your seats folks. CFS is coming in COLD for CLT! Blue dot is the 0F line. One case i want the CFS to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I'll take the NASA GEOS5 for $1,000,000, Alex. Daily Double! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 HM just mentioned on Twitter that the EC monthlies are a total blowtorch for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 HM just mentioned on Twitter that the EC monthlies are a total blowtorch for December. Well pretty much every strong+ nino is a blowtorch for Dec, so that's almost a given and expected. Question is what happens in Jan-March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Well pretty much every strong+ nino is a blowtorch for Dec, so that's almost a given and expected. Question is what happens in Jan-March.... To be honest, I dont like the odds. We've had two torchy Decembers that we recovered from back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 To be honest, I dont like the odds. We've had two torchy Decembers that we recovered from back to back. We very well may avg above normal for both temps and snow this winter. Even in 98 RDU had 3" of snow and that was a blow torch end to end. I am not sold on the NE pac completely flipping but we will see. If it holds somewhat it could get nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 To be honest, I dont like the odds. We've had two torchy Decembers that we recovered from back to back.Last January and February was touch and go. We had some cold and some snow but nothing really impressive at least here in the western part of the state. I'm just wondering how many more winters will the nao allude us from going negative for a good bit of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It's far too early to be speculating oceanic occilations. Models and "winter forecasts" should only be taken for entertainment value until mid-october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It's far too early to be speculating oceanic occilations. Models and "winter forecasts" should only be taken for entertainment value until mid-october. Yep...all we know now is we are under a strengthening Nino with a really warm NE PAC. ATL is cooling off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 It's far too early to be speculating oceanic occilations. Models and "winter forecasts" should only be taken for entertainment value until mid-MARCH!FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 FYP! Thanks Lesson from all the past winters XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC HAS UPDATED!!! I'm pleasantly surprised:DJF Temp AnomaliesDJF SST's**Keeps GOA warmer than both it's June & July updates. Interesting!!DJF PRECIPNINO peaks at the end of Sept...then begins weakening. Earlier peak...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC HAS UPDATED!!! I'm pleasantly surprised: DJF Temp Anomalies LOL, the SE is about the only cool spot on Earth. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 LOL, the SE is about the only cool spot on Earth. I'm in. Yea...the JAMSTEC is notorious for overdoing warmth during Nino's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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