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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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Charlotte is almost always the line of demarcation in events. North and west of the city normally gets much more snow.

Absolutely. 2 or 3 years ago we had a couple storms where we were right on the edge. A couple friends of mine lived on the 48th floor of the Vue in downtown Charlotte. The one day my buddy walked out on his balcony and it was snowing, took a video because he was so excited. Got downstairs and it was raining. Another time his balcony was covered in ice. But again, downstairs it was raining. The ice storm had several cases that day of ice falling from the taller buildings down on to the street. I have seen nearly every storm over my life seem to follow this pattern. We either hit big or miss big by a matter of miles, many times 50 or less. Just that few hundred feet of elevation can make a big difference here in Charlotte.

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Interesting read. Apparently a strong PV between October and December usually results in a rapid weakening for January/February. Here is a link to what one seasonal forecaster has to say and some research done which indicates the strong PV may work to our advantage in January. A quote from LC as follows:

Frankly, I see nothing in the next three and a half weeks which is going to break this pattern. The traditional split flow at 500MB across North America will be inconsistent and further north than many have predicted. Also, the polar jet stream should trend toward a unified/semizonal/progressive configuration. Somewhat like the CFS series is now showing. With no high-latitude blocking signatures apparent anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, most in the U.S. can count on a very warm holiday period. All the way, and past New Year's Day.

If it means anything, I suspect that the huge Arctic gyre will undergo a weakening and fragmentation phase during the first two weeks of January. It is rare for such widespread concentration of intense cold air to stay in the same state and position beyond two months (see the article above). If my analog set is correct, a transition to a multi-block, active southern storm track scenario will get going around January 7 - 10, as the El Nino episode starts to lurch westward, weaken and link with the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation signature to promote -EPO, +PNA and -NAO styled ridging.

Looking forward to seeing how accurate this is and if it verifies. If we get good blocking with a weak PV, -EPO, -NAO, +PNA all in January and February (plus active STJ) it could be a fun winter!

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I think an 06/07 progression might be our best bet, with that pattern in the latter half of Jan into Feb wasn't bad and would have been more snowy had it been more active.  But, it didn't get worth a darn until after Jan 20th.  Maybe we are 1-2 weeks ahead of it.  06/07 is coming up as top analog on CPC for day 8+.  06/07 was a mod nino, +QBO/low solar

 

Dec 1-10, 06 had the +PNA/-EPO that brought cold into the southern plains

Dec 10-20, 06 had the +AO/+NAO and heights building into Canada and into Greenland

Dec 21-30, 06 had AK low still and a hint of southern trough

Jan 1-10, 07 was the head fake, we though the AK low would migrate west and it didn't

Jan 20-Feb was a -AO/-NAO and a decent pattern but it was very dry, we "should" be more active

 

 

 

post-2311-0-67168900-1448807935_thumb.pn

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The CVSf2, should never make anyone happy, except for JB! They just showed the weeklies forecast on TWC , and it does start to look decent, after the 21 of DEC

Decent..... as in closer to normal     :lol:     Warm and wet continues into December  :)    :P 

 

I'm not saying there won't be chances for some wintertime fun for some, but I just don't see a pattern yet that supports a "much colder than normal" pattern with moisture never ending from the southern stream. I would love nothing more than for that to change soon though  :hug: 

 

 

Wait, there are posters not in North Carolina?

Imagine that   :tomato:

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Cold Rain -  I know you asked about WB's final winter forecast, its the same one they issued in August.  What's interesting is it has us slightly AN for Dec and slightly BN for Jan and well below normal for Feb, looks like typical back loaded nino.  You should be able to see the summary...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-15-16-forecast

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Wow +44 anomalies over central Canada! When the pattern flips hopefully we get some -40 to -50 anomalies there as well!

I don't buy it.......being 44 degrees above normal in central Canada just seems impossible. Call me skeptical. I could see it being +20 or so. However, I have been wrong before. Let's see how it unfolds.

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Wow +44 anomalies over central Canada! When the pattern flips hopefully we get some -40 to -50 anomalies there as well!

I don't buy it.......being 44 degrees above normal in central Canada just seems impossible. Call me skeptical. I could see it being +20 or so. However, I have been wrong before. Let's see how it unfolds.

It is. That's 5 day cumulative anomalies...daily anomalies are around +14-16.

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Cold Rain - I know you asked about WB's final winter forecast, its the same one they issued in August. What's interesting is it has us slightly AN for Dec and slightly BN for Jan and well below normal for Feb, looks like typical back loaded nino. You should be able to see the summary...

http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-15-16-forecast

Thanks man. I looked at it and it looks like the August one. In his video he said they just did an update and either had just made it available to Premium or would soon.

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Well tomorrow being December 1st we should see the month get off to an above avg temp start. Wednesday looks to be the warmest, then we should avg slightly below normal over the rest of the week through the weekend. It will be interesting by next Monday if we are almost at average no more than +1 temp wise. Then we'll see how things evolve from there. I like others where just assuming we'd be torching first 15 days of December, but it's possible December could wind up average temp wise when all is said and done. Hard to tell anything looking at the gfs long range, remember it's very warm bias back in the summer. Anyway here's to met winter starting , hopefully the ski slopes can make some snow staring mid week for several nights and mornings.

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I've seen 86/87 used frequently as an analog for 15/16. Just out of curiosity I went back and compared 86/87 to 15/16 so far.  This is not scientific as I did not compare teles for the same time period.  These are simply numbers pulled from the KGSP climate page.

 

BTW...watching the snowy football game last night reminded me of something local met Andy Wood used to always say....."You need to lay down snow in the Great Plains and upper Midwest first so that you have the tracks in place to bring the cold air south later on."  Seems we are off to good start with snow cover in these regions.

 

 

 

 

KGSP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MONTHLY DAILY AVG TEMP

61.6

52.4

44

42.2

45.7

52.9

60.5

86/87

61.9

52.4

42.2

39.5

43

50.5

58.3

15/16

60.2

55.4

?

?

?

?

?

86/87 SNOWFALL

0

T

0

10.8

.9

0

.3

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The new Canadian Climate model (CANSIPS) has updated for December. It shows undeniably solid J-M period at the upper levels for snow lovers.  Jan and Feb both have a strong undercutting jet with most of the warmth bottled up in the source region.  It may even show (gasp) some signs of a -NAO.  

 

The JMA and CANSIPS has had a pretty solid track record the last few years.  Being that the CFSv2 is the only major climate model now showing an extended torch well into the heart of the winter (Jan 15-March 1), I think it's fair to weight it far less.

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The new Canadian Climate model (CANSIPS) has updated for December. It shows undeniably solid J-M period at the upper levels for snow lovers.  Jan and Feb both have a strong undercutting jet with most of the warmth bottled up in the source region.  It may even show (gasp) some signs of a -NAO.  

 

The JMA and CANSIPS has had a pretty solid track record the last few years.  Being that the CFSv2 is the only major climate model now showing an extended torch well into the heart of the winter (Jan 15-March 1), I think it's fair to weight it far less.

I noticed the 500mb setup of the CFS was similar to the CANSIPS but the surface didn't seem to reflect that, not sure why? Either way I like the setup shown on the CANSIPS and it matches fairly well with analogs suggesting a cold January and February. March should warm quickly here in the south.

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I noticed the 500mb setup of the CFS was similar to the CANSIPS but the surface didn't seem to reflect that, not sure why? Either way I like the setup shown on the CANSIPS and it matches fairly well with analogs suggesting a cold January and February. March should warm quickly here in the south.

 

The CFS has the ridge much further east and south which doesn't allow a strong negatively tilted jet underneath, IMO.  They do look pretty different for Jan and Feb.

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