Wow Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Kinda reminding me of Dec 2002 where I remember the models initially showed the Pacific firehose run after run in first part of Dec until finally caught on to the +PNA for the latter part. There was a foretelling index.. the SOI. It rose rapidly during that December. Here, we are already rising rapidly... over the past month, the 30 day SOI avg has risen from -20 to -2 with a few +10 days in the past week or so. My thinking is that we're going to see the models pick up on some real amplication in the coming days. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Kinda reminding me of Dec 2002 where I remember the models initially showed the Pacific firehose run after run in first part of Dec until finally caught on to the +PNA for the latter part. There was a foretelling index.. the SOI. It rose rapidly during that December. Here, we are already rising rapidly... over the past month, the 30 day SOI avg has risen from -20 to -2 with a few +10 days in the past week or so. My thinking is that we're going to see the models pick up on some real amplication in the coming days. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Have to admit...this is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 The end of the run is really nice...+20F 850's for the NE, SE is +8 to +10F 850's. Good news is can't get much warmer, only one way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Wow. That is a warm apocalypse. It will be an incredible effort to turn that around. We always joke but that really would be a winter cancel type situation...or at least December cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Wow. That is a warm apocalypse. It will be an incredible effort to turn that around. We always joke but that really would be a winter cancel type situation...or at least December cancel That ridge is something serious but we knew this was coming for December. Maybe people didn't believe it or something? December has basically been the only month consistently torched in the climate models since fall. That's reality...for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 That ridge is something serious but we knew this was coming for December. Maybe people didn't believe it or something? December has basically been the only month consistently torched in the climate models since fall. That's reality...for December. Yep...let's enjoy the warmth, today was nice. I still like the w-QBO nino progression for winter...this is the 40th time I have posted this but it appears I will have to post this everyday so I don't get attacked from the usual suspects that can't handle people posting about Dec warmth. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/page-40#entry3752954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Yep...let's enjoy the warmth, today was nice. I still like the w-QBO nino progression for winter...this is the 40th time I have posted this but it appears I will have to post this everyday so I don't get attacked from the usual suspects that can't handle people posting about Dec warmth. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/page-40#entry3752954 Nothing you can do about that. For those worried about December being warm.... Jan +2", Feb +1.4", and March +0.5" for snowfall compared to Dec. December is not a snowy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nothing you can do about that. For those worried about December being warm.... Jan +2", Feb +1.4", and March +0.5" for snowfall compared to Dec. December is not a snowy month. Why did you leave South Carolina out? I bet GSP could really goose those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 That ridge is something serious but we knew this was coming for December. Maybe people didn't believe it or something? December has basically been the only month consistently torched in the climate models since fall. That's reality...for December. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Right on, Jon. And we can sell short term false hope @$20.00 per bottle now but come late December/January, it'll be anti-freeze at the same price .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Why did you leave South Carolina out? I bet GSP could really goose those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Thanks and I was kidding. I am surprised they are that high for the state in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'm surprised that GSP averages more snow than CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 December is not a snowy month but the quality of events is much higher than March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'm surprised that GSP averages more snow than CLT.We talked about that last year and GSP is high in elevation than CLT.Edit: I was surprised as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 December is not a snowy month but the quality of events is much higher than March. Yes sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Sun angle is much better for Dec events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Sun angle is much better for Dec events.Rates overcome surface temps and ground temps, always! SDDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Rates overcome surface temps and ground temps, always! SDDY...and lead to 33f and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Sun angle is much better for Dec events. Ground temps are usually colder in Dec also. March is a whopping 10 degrees warmer than Dec on average. I would much, much rather have snow in Dec than March. I had thundersnow for hours in March 2009 that accumulated to 1/2". Probably 7" fell from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Do like Dec sun angle, but dang, there have been some good March storms thru the yrs in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Do like Dec sun angle, but dang, there have been some good March storms thru the yrs in NC March 1983 stands out to me with that big late month snow that year. Much of the state scored big in March of 1993 too of course. The March 2009 event was smaller in coverage, but it pounded the small area that got it. There's March of 1980 too, but I don't remember anything with that month here in Union county SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 We talked about that last year and GSP is high in elevation than CLT. Edit: I was surprised as well. I don't know if 200' make that big of difference. The northwest burbs of Atlanta range from 1000'-1300' and I'm not sure I noticed that much of a difference across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 I don't know if 200' make that big of difference. The northwest burns of Atlanta range from 1000'-1300' and I'm not sure I noticed that much of a difference across the area. There are a whole lot of variables that go into determining how much snow/ice one will average. Latitude, elevation, distance from storm source(this can be good or bad), distance from cold source (like CAD), geographic influences (like down-slopping), and many more. When you compare areas like Columbia to Grenville SC it's easy to figure out why there are differences; but other areas are harder to determine (like Grenville to Charlotte). You also have to be careful when looking at snow averages. Some areas may not average many winter events per year but when they do get a winter event it can be large. Example: Raleigh averages more snow than Charlotte. (but)I would say that Charlotte has a greater chance of seeing more winter events through the year. Reason for disparity, Raleigh has a greater chance of seeing a large snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 There are a whole lot of variables that go into determining how much snow/ice one will average. Latitude, elevation, distance from storm source(this can be good or bad), distance from cold source (like CAD), geographic influences (like down-slopping), and many more. When you compare areas like Columbia to Grenville SC it's easy to figure out why there are differences; but other areas are harder to determine (like Grenville to Charlotte). You also have to be careful when looking at snow averages. Some areas may not average many winter events per year but when they do get a winter event it can be large. Example: Raleigh averages more snow than Charlotte. (but)I would say that Charlotte has a greater chance of seeing more winter events through the year. Reason for disparity, Raleigh has a greater chance of seeing a large snow. All good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Last few runs of the GFS have shown amplification/blocking forming by mid Dec. Thinking the latter half is going to be a lot better than the first half. At the very least, the warm anomalies over the lower 48 should be outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 I don't know if 200' make that big of difference. The northwest burbs of Atlanta range from 1000'-1300' and I'm not sure I noticed that much of a difference across the area. GSP is also further west/inland than Charlotte and is also in a more advantageous CAD position, being pretty close close to the enscarpment. It is a little further south, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Sun angle is much better for Dec events. Yeah ain't it funny how the sun angle is much better for Dec. but we get bigger snowstorms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Jammin' January on the way. Are you ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Charlotte is almost always the line of demarcation in events. North and west of the city normally gets much more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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