packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 That's awful. If that's how it looks mid-Jan I will tattoo BrickRules on my forehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 CFS monthly confirms the idea of the warm December especially further north. It will be +1-3 for the south, close to average or a little above due to the zonal flow and flood of pacific air. Keep waiting for January as that's when things should change to a more favorable pattern. Meanwhile the CANSIPS seasonal model indicates a cold January/February with a great 500mb pattern for February, don't give up on it yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Been down this road in 97. It's gonna take alot to alter the sw flow courtesy of El nino from just continously flooding the conus with pacific air this season. El nino is the 1,000 lb elephant in the room and is going to drive the pattern solo this year I'm afraid. It's just way,way to strong. Even when It starts it's decline from the current peak it's just so massive the hangover affects want dissapear overnight.We'll get a shot at some small windows of cold Jan and feb. Just hope we time it right with the s t j. Silver lining is alot of SE posters could hit above normal snowfall wise and by alot. It will come from the higher than average opportunity at a big kahuna storm loaded with qpf thanks to the stj. Maybe a HECS. However we will average more than our share of above normal temp stretches, espeacilly December. Higher than normal cloudy days and wedges is the only thing that can offset the 60+ degree days we are getting ready to expierence. I don't see anyway the AO can help us the first half of December. The polar vortex is roaring right now. The pna is showing signs of heading positive so we'Ll see if we can get a big fat ridge to mfg itself on the west coast and get the trough to set up on the east coast. I'm pretty sure off memory over the holidays in 97 we had a run at 70 a few days. It's awful runing the ac the week of Christmas, so hang tight and look forward to next year's LA Nina LOL! Gotta keep rooting for the pna to get positive and lock in for 90 days. It's the last hope. Hate it for cohen but I don't see the AO and NAO doing nothing but disappointing us again. It'll turn negative but be late Feb early March like usual and wait till next OCT before Maki g it's normal seasonal transition to posotive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 LR GFS from last night correlates pretty good to that CFS image. Pretty much all of the US is flooded with warmth. I'm sure it'll change later today but not looking like we'll get an early jump on winter. The rare elusive burgertime has been spotted! Edit: sorry thought this was banter for some reason.... I'll add something. Jan-Feb is our winter guys. First week of December looks to have some +SN action north of Jersey, but other than that, torch is coming. I wouldn't mind a little warmth but if it's 50 degrees and rain, count me out. I see a lot of moisture in NC to start December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Been down this road in 97. It's gonna take alot to alter the sw flow courtesy of El nino from just continously flooding the conus with pacific air this season. El nino is the 1,000 lb elephant in the room and is going to drive the pattern solo this year I'm afraid. It's just way,way to strong. Even when It starts it's decline from the current peak it's just so massive the hangover affects want dissapear overnight.We'll get a shot at some small windows of cold Jan and feb. Just hope we time it right with the s t j. Silver lining is alot of SE posters could hit above normal snowfall wise and by alot. It will come from the higher than average opportunity at a big kahuna storm loaded with qpf thanks to the stj. Maybe a HECS. However we will average more than our share of above normal temp stretches, espeacilly December. Higher than normal cloudy days and wedges is the only thing that can offset the 60+ degree days we are getting ready to expierence. I don't see anyway the AO can help us the first half of December. The polar vortex is roaring right now. The pna is showing signs of heading positive so we'Ll see if we can get a big fat ridge to mfg itself on the west coast and get the trough to set up on the east coast. I'm pretty sure off memory over the holidays in 97 we had a run at 70 a few days. It's awful runing the ac the week of Christmas, so hang tight and look forward to next year's LA Nina LOL! Gotta keep rooting for the pna to get positive and lock in for 90 days. It's the last hope. Hate it for cohen but I don't see the AO and NAO doing nothing but disappointing us again. It'll turn negative but be late Feb early March like usual and wait till next OCT before Maki g it's normal seasonal transition to posotive. El Niño is peaking as we speak and transitioning to west based. These two factors along with several others will contribute to the overall pattern change by early January. Seasonal models point to this, analogs strongly suggest it and quite a few forecasters expected a warm December. This is actually a good sign because it means the forecast is progressing as expected. Every year is different and there are not many similarities to 97-98 so don't expect this to progress like that season did. Each season is unique and one must look at all the factors that contribute to a pattern, it's so much more than just a El Niño that factors into long range forecasting/patterns and there are still many factors we don't understand. For one, 97-98 featured a cool November with a trough in the east and ridge in the west. For December the flow flattened some with a ridge in the west still but not as amplified resulting in average temps for the south to below average and warm up north. Already this year the placement of 500mb features is much different with a ridge in the east at times instead of troughing and frequent low heights in the western US. There just aren't many comparisons to 97-98 other than the El Niño and there are a lot of factors which influence it. I still see the warm November/December happening this year with a cold January/February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The rare elusive burgertime has been spotted! Edit: sorry thought this was banter for some reason.... I'll add something. Jan-Feb is our winter guys. First week of December looks to have some +SN action north of Jersey, but other than that, torch is coming. I wouldn't mind a little warmth but if it's 50 degrees and rain, count me out. I see a lot of moisture in NC to start December... any hope for snow and cold in the central plains in Dec ? I'll be in eastern Nebraska in Dec and hoping I get to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Snowstorm I don't buy the nino trending westward aurgument. Of course if it is west based like 2009 2010 it's money in the bank and what the SE prefers. Yes the nino is at its peak as all usually hit their peak about this time. But make no mistake the sst of the Pacific play a monster role in our weather because it is a major influence in how the atmosphere behaves and reacts over NA. I'm all ears willing , hoping to be convinced this nino is evolving into a west based nino, but from my view it's basin wide and super strong. It is at its peak and will start to fade over the next few months. Now it may fade slower in its western basin as it disolves or dissipates. But to me a west based nino has to progress to it's peak being weighted as being west based from its genesis as opposed to retrograding slower in its western basin as opposed to eastern basin in its decline from peaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Snowstorm I don't buy the nino trending westward aurgument. Of course if it is west based like 2009 2010 it's money in the bank and what the SE prefers. Yes the nino is at its peak as all usually hit their peak about this time. But make no mistake the sst of the Pacific play a monster role in our weather because it is a major influence in how the atmosphere behaves and reacts over NA. I'm all ears willing , hoping to be convinced this nino is evolving into a west based nino, but from my view it's basin wide and super strong. It is at its peak and will start to fade over the next few months. Now it may fade slower in its western basin as it disolves or dissipates. But to me a west based nino has to progress to it's peak being weighted as being west based from its genesis as opposed to retrograding slower in its western basin as opposed to eastern basin in its decline from peaking. Agree ncsnow on basin wide and super strong. To me, the biggest positive we have this winter is the propensity for the stronger ninos to produce good gulf lows. Biggest negative is the early signals for +AO/+NAO. Neutral AO/NAO can be serviceable, but hard to overcome a big +AO/+NAO. I think the Pacific pattern will be variable....some bad periods, some good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Agree ncsnow on basin wide and super strong. To me, the biggest positive we have this winter is the propensity for the stronger ninos to produce good gulf lows. Biggest negative is the early signals for +AO/+NAO. Neutral AO/NAO can be serviceable, but hard to overcome a big +AO/+NAO. I think the Pacific pattern will be variable....some bad periods, some good. I'm usually Mr optimistic and espeacilly this early in the game I can always find some possible nugget to grab hold of along with the fact I've never had a shutout imby. But one of the many burns I've expierenced in this weather hobby/ winter weather obsession has come from El nino. It's overhyped as a SE winter weather gurantee IMO. Odds should be greatly increased for a good sized synoptic event this winter just from the stj being so active but cold rains and sunny days making a run at 60 degrees just to get one decent storm that gets melted by more cold rain 2 days latter doesn't turn my cranks. Alot of folks like it like that but I just enjoy the cold day in day out winter weather to much. Helps take the edge off the southeast summer. If the AO gets off to a solid posotive start in December like it's getting ready to do, it's very hard to get reversed in time to benefit us much down this way. What's gonna break up the polar vortex in its current state? Maybe you solar guys have a clue, but I haven't seen anything. It will take a long time for the pattern to change because of the main factor that's driving it to it's current condition or state will be playing a heavy influence for a couple more months minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I'm usually Mr optimistic and espeacilly this early in the game I can always find some possible nugget to grab hold of along with the fact I've never had a shutout imby. But one of the many burns I've expierenced in this weather hobby/ winter weather obsession has come from El nino. It's overhyped as a SE winter weather gurantee IMO. Odds should be greatly increased for a good sized synoptic event this winter just from the stj being so active but cold rains and sunny days making a run at 60 degrees just to get one decent storm that gets melted by more cold rain 2 days latter doesn't turn my cranks. Alot of folks like it like that but I just enjoy the cold day in day out winter weather to much. Helps take the edge off the southeast summer. If the AO gets off to a solid posotive start in December like it's getting ready to do, it's very hard to get reversed in time to benefit us much down this way. What's gonna break up the polar vortex in its current state? Maybe you solar guys have a clue, but I haven't seen anything. It will take a long time for the pattern to change because of the main factor that's driving it to it's current condition or state will be playing a heavy influence for a couple more months minimum. This is has been my biggest worry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Snowstorm I don't buy the nino trending westward aurgument. Of course if it is west based like 2009 2010 it's money in the bank and what the SE prefers. Yes the nino is at its peak as all usually hit their peak about this time. But make no mistake the sst of the Pacific play a monster role in our weather because it is a major influence in how the atmosphere behaves and reacts over NA. I'm all ears willing , hoping to be convinced this nino is evolving into a west based nino, but from my view it's basin wide and super strong. It is at its peak and will start to fade over the next few months. Now it may fade slower in its western basin as it disolves or dissipates. But to me a west based nino has to progress to it's peak being weighted as being west based from its genesis as opposed to retrograding slower in its western basin as opposed to eastern basin in its decline from peaking. The thing is the pattern of 97-98 with the strong El Niño was completely different that summer and fall compared with this one. It featured a cold November, cool/average December here and then a torch for January and February. It featured a warm west vs cold east initially with a pattern change end of December. By January it switched to warm with a zonal flow and ridge over Canada. Other than the Nino there are no similarities whatsoever to 97-98 at the 500mb level. The Nino is already beginning to transition to west based and the model forecast plots show it weakening significantly in the eastern portion with a shift west in warm anomalies. This will impact the upper level features and begin changing our pattern by early January to a colder one. I see no evidence to indicate a 97-98 type of year and while it's fine to be skeptical all indications point to a great pattern for January and February. I'm quite excited about what we will see going forward but until then we have to endure the warmer weather with frequent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The thing is the pattern of 97-98 with the strong El Niño was completely different that summer and fall compared with this one. It featured a cold November, cool/average December here and then a torch for January and February. It featured a warm west vs cold east initially with a pattern change end of December. By January it switched to warm with a zonal flow and ridge over Canada. Other than the Nino there are no similarities whatsoever to 97-98 at the 500mb level. The Nino is already beginning to transition to west based and the model forecast plots show it weakening significantly in the eastern portion with a shift west in warm anomalies. This will impact the upper level features and begin changing our pattern by early January to a colder one. I see no evidence to indicate a 97-98 type of year and while it's fine to be skeptical all indications point to a great pattern for January and February. I'm quite excited about what we will see going forward but until then we have to endure the warmer weather with frequent rains. You talk like 97-98 was a horrible winter. Heck, I had snow that winter which is something I can't say for last winter. Any winter that we have snow here is a good winter. 97-98 was much better than 14-15 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 This is has been my biggest worry too. You know it's bad when I am the voice of reason and Grit/NCSNOW start the long walk to cliffs edge. I was much more optimistic about last winter than this winter but with that said I would be shocked if we finish below last years snow total (7" RDU). I like how this nino has evolved, basin wide super strong that's going to start dominating the pattern. We are going to get a couple of heart breakers in Jan where the w-NC clean up but then mid/end of Jan into Feb we will get 2-3 events. Edit: Yikes, the EPS is hideous, but that's all going as planned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 You talk like 97-98 was a horrible winter. Heck, I had snow that winter which is something I can't say for last winter. Any winter that we have snow here is a good winter. 97-98 was much better than 14-15 around here. You should be et up with cad today thru Friday, and not the only time this winter either Probably get a good zstorm too...you are kind of overdue for a big one. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 This is why everyone is freaking out...this is worse than bad, LOL. Cohen saw this yesterday and he responded "the bigger they are the harder they fall". But yeah, this (PV) is like Superman's ice fortress of solitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Edit: Yikes, the EPS is hideous, but that's all going as planned... Those poor Canadians are going to cook. What is that on the EPS temps.. +15 2m temps for central Canada? The control has it up to +20 in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Those poor Canadians are going to cook. What is that on the EPS temps.. +15 2m temps for central Canada? The control has it up to +20 in some spots. Yep, it's going to be pleasant up there, that's for sure. Seasonally cool/damp here should make for a fun December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 You know it's bad when I am the voice of reason and Grit/NCSNOW start the long walk to cliffs edge. I was much more optimistic about last winter than this winter but with that said I would be shocked if we finish below last years snow total (7" RDU). I like how this nino has evolved, basin wide super strong that's going to start dominating the pattern. We are going to get a couple of heart breakers in Jan where the w-NC clean up but then mid/end of Jan into Feb we will get 2-3 events. Edit: Yikes, the EPS is hideous, but that's all going as planned... Ha, I'm a big fan of ninos, but we've gone sour in the stratosphere here in November. Need to see a flip there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 +QBO/L-solar Dec's FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 +QBO-Lsolar Jan-Feb FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Lol this place is fun in the winter. We already have the Nino starting to break down a bit and you have a hurricane that will hit the pacific side of Mexico that will eat up warm water there. You will also see the ridge in Canada continue to move north which will open the southern part of the US for troughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 +QBO/L-solar Dec's FTL... I've got 82-83 as high solar moving into neutral....but agree with 06-07 being a good strat compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I've got 82-83 as high solar moving into neutral....but agree with 06-07 being a good strat compare 83 is similar to this year...what do you consider neutral? Anything under 150 is neutral and sub 100 is low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 83 is similar to this year...what do you consider neutral? Anything under 150 is neutral and sub 100 is low? 150 and 105 (Obsflux). We should be going into solar min this winter barring a spike. ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 150 and 105 (Obsflux). We should be going into solar min this winter barring a spike. ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt I assume you saw this...http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 I assume you saw this...http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= Just the cliffs notes, but will read....SSW in Jan I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Just the cliffs notes, but will read....SSW in Jan I take Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I am rooting for the strongest strat vortex in history. If we're going down, might as well go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I am rooting for the strongest strat vortex in history. If we're going down, might as well go down in flames. Your rooting is working, not sure it can get much stronger at this point. I bet if we looked at the Dec's that started off with similar PV strength it's probably not pretty for rest of winter but that is total wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Your rooting is working, not sure it can get much stronger at this point. I bet if we looked at the Dec's that started off with similar PV strength it's probably not pretty for rest of winter but that is total wag. Do us a favor and don't look man. Just don't look. We already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.