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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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What happened to " warm ocean, cool continent "

mantra I've been hearing about in October ??

Looks like warm oceans, warm continent to me☀!

LOL...well I guess the good news is there isn't a lot of cold (in the east) Dec strong nino's but they tend to be snowy for us later on (knock on wood).

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Are we cancelling winter or not? So confused.

No not at all. Winter hasn't even started and it's been posted numerous times that December would be a "torch" with warm conditions across most of North America, typical of most El Niño years and matching well with analogs. Why people keep saying "winter cancel" is beyond me.

Pattern change will take place first week of January then the fun begins. Everything progressing nicely for a good pattern in January and February. Everyone just needs to be patient and wait for January and enjoy the warmer December weather while they can.

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Lol, did anyone actually read the 'bottom line' in QueenCity's link? Isn't this going as planned?:

 

BOTTOM LINE: December 2015 is expected to feature near record warm weather central-southern Canada in through portions of the northern U.S. On the contrast, cool and wet conditions favored across the South. The highly anomalous warmth in December that is anticipated to develop across North America is attributed to weather patterns driven by the strongest El Nino observed in our data archives.

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I don't think our December is going to be a torch. CFS is not the most accurate model and with the PNA going positive soon, we will cool off. It will prob end up seasonal for us in Dec. At least that's my opinion.

It seemed to do quite well with November in predicting above average temps for our area which we saw most of the money with only transient cold shots. I expect much of the same for December, a lot of 60s and upper 50s with brief cold shots once in awhile. PNA is only going weakly positive and not enough to shut off the warm conveyor belt of air. Furthermore the pattern setting up past day 7 on the Euro and GFS is to have a ridge over the western US and central Canada, not your typical PNA configuration and effectively shutting our cold air supply off. Look at Euro past day 7 and it depicts quite a warm scenario over Canada with the 850 0C isotherm well north into central Canada. With the cold air confined to the far northern areas like Hudson Bay and across the globe in Siberia I don't expect much cold for the month, at least for the first half of December.

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It seemed to do quite well with November in predicting above average temps for our area which we saw most of the money with only transient cold shots. I expect much of the same for December, a lot of 60s and upper 50s with brief cold shots once in awhile. PNA is only going weakly positive and not enough to shut off the warm conveyor belt of air. Furthermore the pattern setting up past day 7 on the Euro and GFS is to have a ridge over the western US and central Canada, not your typical PNA configuration and effectively shutting our cold air supply off. Look at Euro past day 7 and it depicts quite a warm scenario over Canada with the 850 0C isotherm well north into central Canada. With the cold air confined to the far northern areas like Hudson Bay and across the globe in Siberia I don't expect much cold for the month, at least for the first half of December.

 

Agree with your posts...people will start freaking out when you throw the words "torch" around, but that's the word I would use too.  It will be AN for at the very least for atleast the first 3 weeks of Dec.  The only concern for this winter is how strong the PV is, if it can weaken/split in Dec then possible early January we can turn colder (-AO) but if not we may have to wait till end of Jan into Feb, IMO.  Other than that, this strong nino will be driving the winter going forward....with w-QBO's the NPac low is typically stronger so where that sets up is obviously big and I like the location on the weeklies for Dec.  Strong STJ looks good too, these systems that have been giving rain/snow have not underperformed.   The NE pac SST's are similar to last year but it may be tough to see a -EPO once the strong NPac low gets setup so where does the cold come from if we are +EPO, +AO/NAO...#strathelp.

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I keep hearing people talk about a torch in Dec but isn't that mainly for the Northern US and Canada ? I've heard some people say the deep south may be average to slightly below average in Dec

 

They torch we will be AN, I don't see a +5F torch like Nov but maybe we are in the 0-2F range and the further south/sw you are it might be just BN.  I also wouldn't completely rule an event for the SE/E in Dec, maybe end of December and I expect the mountains to get a couple of events in Dec.  

 

Chicago torched in Nov, will probably finish +7 or so and they had one of the biggest Nov winter storms in the past 100+ years.  When your running good with snow, like Chicago has the past few years, it just snows for you.  I suspect MA/NE will fluke one maybe two in Dec.

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They torch we will be AN, I don't see a +5F torch like Nov but maybe we are in the 0-2F range and the further south/sw you are it might be just BN. I also wouldn't completely rule an event for the SE/E in Dec, maybe end of December and I expect the mountains to get a couple of events in Dec.

Chicago torched in Nov, will probably finish +7 or so and they had one of the biggest Nov winter storms in the past 100+ years. When your running good with snow, like Chicago has the past few years, it just snows for you. I suspect MA/NE will fluke one maybe two in Dec.

that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal.
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that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal.

As mentioned above the "torch" will be areas mainly to our north like Canada and northern US areas. Here we will see average to slightly above average with transient cold shots increasing in intensity by end of December and early January. I expect a lot of 50s and low 60s for highs with cloudy, rainy weather similar to what we've seen recently. What we need to watch for is increasing intensity and frequency of cold shots, which I foresee by December 20-25th timeframe. These will signal an impending pattern change and models will likely reflect that in the long range as we get near late December.

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Looks like Cohen believes another winter targeting MA to BOS...seems like every winter as far as I can remember it's been a MA to NE blitz.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/

He nailed last year! So I wouldn't be too concerned.
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It will work. Just give it until 12/20 or thereabouts and then hang on to your scarf until March ....

Shoot, it's been cold enough for snow and sleet here the last couple of nights, but we were missing the other two legs of the triumvirate for frozen in the deep south...moisture, and timing, lol.  It only has to be freezing somewhere close to the earth, as long as you have the other two in the right mixture, and it'll get cold in Dec some, lol.  I wore my stocking hat...but didn't pull out my scarf...it wasn't that cold :)

  Now to get the snow to you we probably need a cross polar flow, and a cut off low well blocked..and since it's been a hundred years, some magic pixie dust :)  T

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