packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 What happened to " warm ocean, cool continent " mantra I've been hearing about in October ?? Looks like warm oceans, warm continent to me☀! LOL...well I guess the good news is there isn't a lot of cold (in the east) Dec strong nino's but they tend to be snowy for us later on (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 It's going to be another long wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Are we cancelling winter or not? So confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Are we cancelling winter or not? So confused. Only the smart money. May fortune favor the foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Typical Nino climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Are we cancelling winter or not? So confused.No not at all. Winter hasn't even started and it's been posted numerous times that December would be a "torch" with warm conditions across most of North America, typical of most El Niño years and matching well with analogs. Why people keep saying "winter cancel" is beyond me.Pattern change will take place first week of January then the fun begins. Everything progressing nicely for a good pattern in January and February. Everyone just needs to be patient and wait for January and enjoy the warmer December weather while they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I don't think our December is going to be a torch. CFS is not the most accurate model and with the PNA going positive soon, we will cool off. It will prob end up seasonal for us in Dec. At least that's my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I don't think our December is going to be a torch. CFS is not the most accurate model and with the PNA going positive soon, we will cool off. It will prob end up seasonal for us in Dec. At least that's my opinion. Don't forget about the EPO going negative. that will give us some cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Lol, did anyone actually read the 'bottom line' in QueenCity's link? Isn't this going as planned?: BOTTOM LINE: December 2015 is expected to feature near record warm weather central-southern Canada in through portions of the northern U.S. On the contrast, cool and wet conditions favored across the South. The highly anomalous warmth in December that is anticipated to develop across North America is attributed to weather patterns driven by the strongest El Nino observed in our data archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Looking at the NAO, AO, EPO, and PNA. It sets up perfectly for something to happen around December 4th if moisture is around. NAO goes Negative, AO neutral, EPO Neutral to slightly Negative, and the PNA to spike Positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I don't think our December is going to be a torch. CFS is not the most accurate model and with the PNA going positive soon, we will cool off. It will prob end up seasonal for us in Dec. At least that's my opinion. It seemed to do quite well with November in predicting above average temps for our area which we saw most of the money with only transient cold shots. I expect much of the same for December, a lot of 60s and upper 50s with brief cold shots once in awhile. PNA is only going weakly positive and not enough to shut off the warm conveyor belt of air. Furthermore the pattern setting up past day 7 on the Euro and GFS is to have a ridge over the western US and central Canada, not your typical PNA configuration and effectively shutting our cold air supply off. Look at Euro past day 7 and it depicts quite a warm scenario over Canada with the 850 0C isotherm well north into central Canada. With the cold air confined to the far northern areas like Hudson Bay and across the globe in Siberia I don't expect much cold for the month, at least for the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 It seemed to do quite well with November in predicting above average temps for our area which we saw most of the money with only transient cold shots. I expect much of the same for December, a lot of 60s and upper 50s with brief cold shots once in awhile. PNA is only going weakly positive and not enough to shut off the warm conveyor belt of air. Furthermore the pattern setting up past day 7 on the Euro and GFS is to have a ridge over the western US and central Canada, not your typical PNA configuration and effectively shutting our cold air supply off. Look at Euro past day 7 and it depicts quite a warm scenario over Canada with the 850 0C isotherm well north into central Canada. With the cold air confined to the far northern areas like Hudson Bay and across the globe in Siberia I don't expect much cold for the month, at least for the first half of December. Agree with your posts...people will start freaking out when you throw the words "torch" around, but that's the word I would use too. It will be AN for at the very least for atleast the first 3 weeks of Dec. The only concern for this winter is how strong the PV is, if it can weaken/split in Dec then possible early January we can turn colder (-AO) but if not we may have to wait till end of Jan into Feb, IMO. Other than that, this strong nino will be driving the winter going forward....with w-QBO's the NPac low is typically stronger so where that sets up is obviously big and I like the location on the weeklies for Dec. Strong STJ looks good too, these systems that have been giving rain/snow have not underperformed. The NE pac SST's are similar to last year but it may be tough to see a -EPO once the strong NPac low gets setup so where does the cold come from if we are +EPO, +AO/NAO...#strathelp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Looks like Cohen believes another winter targeting MA to BOS...seems like every winter as far as I can remember it's been a MA to NE blitz. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I keep hearing people talk about a torch in Dec but isn't that mainly for the Northern US and Canada ? I've heard some people say the deep south may be average to slightly below average in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I keep hearing people talk about a torch in Dec but isn't that mainly for the Northern US and Canada ? I've heard some people say the deep south may be average to slightly below average in Dec They torch we will be AN, I don't see a +5F torch like Nov but maybe we are in the 0-2F range and the further south/sw you are it might be just BN. I also wouldn't completely rule an event for the SE/E in Dec, maybe end of December and I expect the mountains to get a couple of events in Dec. Chicago torched in Nov, will probably finish +7 or so and they had one of the biggest Nov winter storms in the past 100+ years. When your running good with snow, like Chicago has the past few years, it just snows for you. I suspect MA/NE will fluke one maybe two in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 They torch we will be AN, I don't see a +5F torch like Nov but maybe we are in the 0-2F range and the further south/sw you are it might be just BN. I also wouldn't completely rule an event for the SE/E in Dec, maybe end of December and I expect the mountains to get a couple of events in Dec. Chicago torched in Nov, will probably finish +7 or so and they had one of the biggest Nov winter storms in the past 100+ years. When your running good with snow, like Chicago has the past few years, it just snows for you. I suspect MA/NE will fluke one maybe two in Dec. that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal. HAH.....Didn't think of that, but yeah, this will probably be the coolest Dec the SE has been since Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal. As mentioned above the "torch" will be areas mainly to our north like Canada and northern US areas. Here we will see average to slightly above average with transient cold shots increasing in intensity by end of December and early January. I expect a lot of 50s and low 60s for highs with cloudy, rainy weather similar to what we've seen recently. What we need to watch for is increasing intensity and frequency of cold shots, which I foresee by December 20-25th timeframe. These will signal an impending pattern change and models will likely reflect that in the long range as we get near late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Looks like Cohen believes another winter targeting MA to BOS...seems like every winter as far as I can remember it's been a MA to NE blitz. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ He nailed last year! So I wouldn't be too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 It will work. Just give it until 12/20 or thereabouts and then hang on to your scarf until March .... Shoot, it's been cold enough for snow and sleet here the last couple of nights, but we were missing the other two legs of the triumvirate for frozen in the deep south...moisture, and timing, lol. It only has to be freezing somewhere close to the earth, as long as you have the other two in the right mixture, and it'll get cold in Dec some, lol. I wore my stocking hat...but didn't pull out my scarf...it wasn't that cold Now to get the snow to you we probably need a cross polar flow, and a cut off low well blocked..and since it's been a hundred years, some magic pixie dust T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohen update...in summary, strat weakens PV we snow, if not we curse nino's and w-QBO's. Although, I still think we do OK in Feb. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Cohen update...in summary, strat weakens PV we snow, if not we curse nino's and w-QBO's. Although, I still think we do OK in Feb. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Record cold Nov stratosphere, +QBO, +NAO persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 It's going to be another long wait. As it is many times. I remember a lot more snowstorms, and bigger snowstorms, in Feb. and March than I do in Dec. and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 that doesn't sound bad at all. This could actually be the coldest Dec we have had since 2010. Every Dec since 2011 has been way above normal. Almost every winter in my lifetime has been above normal, so that doesn't scare me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Record cold Nov stratosphere, +QBO, +NAO persistence Snowcover + super duper Nino v/s w-QBO strengthened PVIt's like Ali vs Frazier....I think we know who Ali is and who ends up winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The NWS at GSP said the record low for today was 14 degrees in 1971. And as I recall, we had a big snow and sleet storm Dec. 3rd 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Could be worse I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 ^^ I always enjoy wearing shorts at Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 That's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 LR GFS from last night correlates pretty good to that CFS image. Pretty much all of the US is flooded with warmth. I'm sure it'll change later today but not looking like we'll get an early jump on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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