CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 This was end of Dec instead of end of Nov it might be a pattern that could spit something out for us, even so mtns could be interesting. Even though the Atlantic is looking poor right now, at least we won't be dealing with a southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Looks like we are in uncharted territory with respect to analogs. Most event similar to our current pattern had a normal to below normal October and November followed by average to above average December followed by a Below average January to March. So far the SE and almost the entire United States has been above normal. Not looking good for snow lovers so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Looks like we are in uncharted territory with respect to analogs. Most event similar to our current pattern had a normal to below normal October and November followed by average to above average December followed by a Below average January to March. So far the SE and almost the entire United States has been above normal. Not looking good for snow lovers so far.... Well I agree there seems to be more nino's with cold Nov's but there has been 3 mod+ nino's with Nov's like we are seeing. All turned out to be cold/snowy winters...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Well I agree there seems to be more nino's with cold Nov's but there has been 3 mod+ nino's with Nov's like we are seeing. All turned out to be cold/snowy winters...we shall see. I see your argument. I used 57-58 and 82-83 also. Past 30 days below. 2009-2010 would be a dream 2015: 1982: 1957: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Don't expect a pattern change until early January. We may see brief shots of cold air like this weekend but nothing with staying power. Notice how the GFS has warmed up and slowed the advance of the Arctic front? The pattern for December supports a cold west and warm east of the Apps. That should all change by January as the blocking begins to establish a strong PNA and -AO as well. Might even get a -NAO if we are lucky! Don't give up hope yet, our time will come soon enough, just waiting till January The good news is the Nino is peaking now and should begin declining the next few weeks. This change will be evident by early to mid January and is the reason we should begin seeing a shift towards cold east vs warm west at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 WSI forecast updated. http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-temperature-outlook-2015-2016-december-january-february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 WSI forecast updated. http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-temperature-outlook-2015-2016-december-january-february Climo...looks pretty good, considering just about every seasonal model is calling for that progression. Verbatim that should be enough for some events... EPS keeps getting better first week of Dec. Edit: Also, the Barents Kara Sea high is very very impressive....it's what Cohen would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Im really liking the sst evolutions recently. Models are def trending towards a more west based nino. This will be a good winter if this takes shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Don't expect a pattern change until early January. We may see brief shots of cold air like this weekend but nothing with staying power. Notice how the GFS has warmed up and slowed the advance of the Arctic front? The pattern for December supports a cold west and warm east of the Apps. That should all change by January as the blocking begins to establish a strong PNA and -AO as well. Might even get a -NAO if we are lucky! Don't give up hope yet, our time will come soon enough, just waiting till January The good news is the Nino is peaking now and should begin declining the next few weeks. This change will be evident by early to mid January and is the reason we should begin seeing a shift towards cold east vs warm west at that time. Personally I hope you're wrong (though you are probably correct). I do not like having to wait until latter half of Jan to hope for a pattern change. It is so freakin tough around here waiting through mild Nov and Dec while all the rest of the country gets plastered every year. I really hope we can get some blocking sometime, that seems to be the best way for most of us outside the mountains to get anything, and if the storm track continues as it has we'd be in business. I'm sure a monkey wrench will show it's ugly head somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Personally I hope you're wrong (though you are probably correct). I do not like having to wait until latter half of Jan to hope for a pattern change. It is so freakin tough around here waiting through mild Nov and Dec while all the rest of the country gets plastered every year. I really hope we can get some blocking sometime, that seems to be the best way for most of us outside the mountains to get anything, and if the storm track continues as it has we'd be in business. I'm sure a monkey wrench will show it's ugly head somewhere... It will work. Just give it until 12/20 or thereabouts and then hang on to your scarf until March .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Personally I hope you're wrong (though you are probably correct). I do not like having to wait until latter half of Jan to hope for a pattern change. It is so freakin tough around here waiting through mild Nov and Dec while all the rest of the country gets plastered every year. I really hope we can get some blocking sometime, that seems to be the best way for most of us outside the mountains to get anything, and if the storm track continues as it has we'd be in business. I'm sure a monkey wrench will show it's ugly head somewhere... Well the good news is a mild December means everything is on track to follow some of the analogs I've mentioned, 57-58 is one good year and there are a few similarities to 09-10 and 87-88 also. Those years featured a cold January/February and this year should be similar. Waiting is hard but I'm glad to see everything following the analogs pretty closely. The euro long range shows the 0C 850 line all the way into central Canada by early December. Although we won't be all that warm due to the zonal flow, we will be at to above average as ridging builds in at times. Frequent storminess will help keep temps in check also. I would expect a lot of 50s and 60s in December with rain, brief transient cold shots and an ugly, zonal flow with terrible indices. It won't look good and by Christmas many will probably be declaring winter cancel, if not much sooner. However by late December into early January the stage should be set for a big storm or two to change the pattern to a more wintry and colder one. By January 15th I think a lot of us will be much happier as we should be in a nice blocking regime with +PNA building, -AO and if we're lucky the ever so elusive -NAO. Expect a greater risk for CAD events this year also with strong confluence over the NE once January rolls around. For now long range looks warm and actually encourages me that things are on track to give us a rocking January/February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Im really liking the sst evolutions recently. Models are def trending towards a more west based nino. This will be a good winter if this takes shape. Here is an excerpt from Larry Cosgrove's most recent weather newsletter about the long range forecast as December approaches and for our wintry transition. Everything appears right on track. As we head deeper into December, I think that the winter weather enthusiasts living east of the Rocky Mountains are going to hang their heads and cry. Notice that the longer term 500MB forecasts turn decidedly semizonal. Yes, I see the ridging in AK and YT that the CFS series is showing in the 16 - 20 day. However, the storm track separates in "El Nino" fashion and the disturbances in the southern branch are not strong enough in mid-December to grab any cold air. So you will likely have to wait until January 7 - 10 before the weakening +ENSO signal (with a westward shift in the SST anomaly) allows the still-viable positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation to work its magic. And enable more and greater cases of blocking signals in Alaska into western and northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Well the good news is a mild December means everything is on track to follow some of the analogs I've mentioned, 57-58 is one good year and there are a few similarities to 09-10 and 87-88 also. Those years featured a cold January/February and this year should be similar. Waiting is hard but I'm glad to see everything following the analogs pretty closely. The euro long range shows the 0C 850 line all the way into central Canada by early December. Although we won't be all that warm due to the zonal flow, we will be at to above average as ridging builds in at times. Frequent storminess will help keep temps in check also. I would expect a lot of 50s and 60s in December with rain, brief transient cold shots and an ugly, zonal flow with terrible indices. It won't look good and by Christmas many will probably be declaring winter cancel, if not much sooner. However by late December into early January the stage should be set for a big storm or two to change the pattern to a more wintry and colder one. By January 15th I think a lot of us will be much happier as we should be in a nice blocking regime with +PNA building, -AO and if we're lucky the ever so elusive -NAO. Expect a greater risk for CAD events this year also with strong confluence over the NE once January rolls around. For now long range looks warm and actually encourages me that things are on track to give us a rocking January/February! Well you certainly sound like you know what you are talking about and I hope it comes to fruition. It seems like we get a lot of winters where we wait for that mid season rubber band snap and it never comes, or at least not until March or April which is too late for most. Just curious - which part of 09-10 matches up? That season saw a very cold December and Early Jan, with a bit of a warm up thereafter for lower elevations. Wasn't there also a pretty good block during that time? I know many are forecasting a block later in the season, but waiting for a Winter block is kinda like waiting for the prom queen to agree to go out with you. Unless it's actually happening, it's only in your dreams (yes Debbie Gibson got that one right)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Well you certainly sound like you know what you are talking about and I hope it comes to fruition. It seems like we get a lot of winters where we wait for that mid season rubber band snap and it never comes, or at least not until March or April which is too late for most. Just curious - which part of 09-10 matches up? That season saw a very cold December and Early Jan, with a bit of a warm up thereafter for lower elevations. Wasn't there also a pretty good block during that time? I know many are forecasting a block later in the season, but waiting for a Winter block is kinda like waiting for the prom queen to agree to go out with you. Unless it's actually happening, it's only in your dreams (yes Debbie Gibson got that one right)!I'm still learning a lot but I do find the analog method quite accurate when done correctly. It's not 100% as each year is unique and may have a wrinkle or twist not seen in any past years but it gives you a good indication of what to expect for winter and summer also. I see a few similarities in 2009-2010 in the moderate to strong El Niño that year which peaked around December/January range similar to this one. It also featured a toasty November pattern followed by a cold January and February. Upper level features at this time in November are remarkably similar with the one difference being a East Atlantic High Pressure system. Otherwise the active STJ, placement of 500mb features is very similar.One interesting factor I'm learning how to use is the connection between the tropics and the polar westerlies. These are good indications of our downstream climate, it's not just about the weather here in North America or even the Southeast. Broader global factors contribute to our weather, such as typhoons which may at times amplify a ridge or trough or the connections of tropical forcing with the polar westerlies. I'm still learning a lot about how these work together but they can be clues to the type of pattern that evolves over the winter. Here is how February 2010 turned out btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Nothing earth shattering but a good writeup just released...analog snowfall is nice to see. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=166 One comment I thought was interesting... As the current El Niño event weakens heading into March, the active storm track and cold air availability is also expected to wane, likely signaling an end to wintry potential. This could happen as early as mid-to-late February or possibly early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Looks like another 7 days of relatively dry weather but it seems as soon as Dec 1st hits the flood gates open...here's to many weeks of life with an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Im really liking the sst evolutions recently. Models are def trending towards a more west based nino. This will be a good winter if this takes shape. Yep, hope no one is cliff diving at this point. In my 40+ years of following SE weather, I can remember very few November through March "wall to wall" cold winters. 77-78 turned cold around Thanksgiving here SC and stayed that way all the way until mid March with wintry precip falling DJFM. All other winters that I remember were back or front loaded. The historic 76-77 winter was front loaded and it warmed up by February and stayed warm all spring. 79-80 was back loaded. Even recently we have not seen wall to wall cold. I suppose 09-10 might be the closest. Of those mentioned (too lazy to look it up) but I think 76-77 and 09-10 were the only Nino's. Point being, it's rare to see DJFM cold and snowy in the SE. BTW, 86-87 was a Nino year and we had cold and snow in JFM after a somewhat mild Nov and Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 2002/2003 was wall to wall cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 1995-1996 was the best wall to wall one I remember (and one of my favorite winters period). I remember having early dismissal from school around the 10th of Nov for sleet and having a low of 22 after mid April. In between were periods of extended cold with numerous ice and snow events. That Feb was the last time I saw a zero degree temp IMBY and snow on top of snow in Jan. There was a week in Feb where we hardly got above freezing and had off an on snow showers and ice for several days. Then in the middle of that - we had a tropical front come through and give GSP it's first ever 80 degree reading in the month of Fed! Fun winter and I'd love another one like that sometime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Went through the analogs (post 1950)...EPS and weeklies through Dec 21st look like Dec 86 with the aleutian low, heights+ in Canada and weak southern trough. https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/668915846757163008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Pre-1950 strong nino's along with 87 that match the Dec weeklies. Dec and then rolled forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Pack, er, NCrain, thanks for all of the data you bring to this thread. Good stuff man. Really compelling! And nice avatar too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Pack, er, NCrain, thanks for all of the data you bring to this thread. Good stuff man. Really compelling! And nice avatar too! Pack is dead to me, it's NCrain :-). Considering how rare this Nino is it will be interesting to see how things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Went through the analogs (post 1950)...EPS and weeklies through Dec 21st look like Dec 86 with the aleutian low, heights+ in Canada and weak southern trough. https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/668915846757163008 Hey, nice find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Pack is dead to me, it's NCrain :-). Considering how rare this Nino is it will be interesting to see how things unfold. Here in the Triad our strong Nino snowfall is a bit of a contradiction. We have had five documented strong El Ninos since the 50s. Four of the five had below normal snowfall. However, the fifth was so much above the seasonal average that the overall average snowfall during strong Ninos ends up about two inches above normal. Personally I interpret this to mean that our snowfall is usually below normal during strong El Ninos unless we get one lucky big snow. Pretty much like any other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Here in the Triad our strong Nino snowfall is a bit of a contradiction. We have had five documented strong El Ninos since the 50s. Four of the five had below normal snowfall. However, the fifth was so much above the seasonal average that the overall average snowfall during strong Ninos ends up about two inches above normal. Personally I interpret this to mean that our snowfall is usually below normal during strong El Ninos unless we get one lucky big snow. Pretty much like any other year. Ever since the late 1990's people have been over-weighting El Ninos. There are other factors at work besides the ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Reason its been warm and will continue as long as this signal is in the tank: Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 But theres hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 http://www.wsi.com/blog/historic-warmth-across-north-america-possible-in-december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 http://www.wsi.com/blog/historic-warmth-across-north-america-possible-in-decemberWhat happened to " warm ocean, cool continent "mantra I've been hearing about in October ?? Looks like warm oceans, warm continent to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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